Tesla doubles deliveries next year? Is it possible?

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas recently reported that given the current growth trend, Tesla production of 2 million vehicles in 2022 is possible, which means that deliveries will increase by more than 1 times, and the growth rate will be higher than in 2021.

Signals for the fourth quarter!

Tesla's delivery data in the fourth quarter showed amazing momentum.

Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries rose 71% year-over-year to 308,600 units, beating analysts' expectations.

Even on a sequential basis, Tesla's growth has been very strong. Tesla's fourth-quarter deliveries grew 28% sequentially, delivering 241391 electric vehicles in the third quarter and 201304 electric vehicles in the second quarter.

At a time when the auto industry is facing the worst supply chain problems in history, this growth momentum speaks volumes about Tesla's capabilities.

Production capacity is constantly expanding

The second reason Jonas is so optimistic about Tesla in 2022 is the company's new factory.

Tesla is building new factories almost the entire year of 2021, with two new factories in Berlin, Germany, and Austin, Texas, just now coming online.

Jonas believes that once these factories reach full capacity, Tesla's global annual production capacity will reach nearly 3 million units, slightly higher than the company's annual production capacity at the end of the third quarter of 1 million units. Of course, it will take some time for the two new plants to be fully productive.

Tesla is certainly conservative

Due to Tesla's frequent failures to meet production and delivery targets over the years, it has recently become conservative in terms of annual delivery guidelines.

For example, management in 2020 simply said it expects deliveries to grow by more than 50% in 2021. That means around 750,000 or more deliveries, up from 2020. But actual deliveries soared 87% year-over-year to more than 936,000, again in a challenging supply and logistics environment.

Tesla's guidance for 2022 is likely to remain conservative.

Indeed, it's no surprise to see Tesla again make guidance or more for a 50% increase in deliveries.

While that's a far cry from jonas' optimism of up to 2 million deliveries, it illustrates Tesla's strengths.

Deutsche Bank is also optimistic!

Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner, who rated Tesla as a buy, said Tesla's shipments in the last quarter of 2021 were higher than all expectations and could be seen as a preview of the 2022 super year.

Rosner wrote in the report that while Deutsche Bank currently maintains Tesla's estimate of 1.47 million vehicles delivered in 2022, or 58% year-on-year, Q4 production indicates that Deutsche Bank's forecast is still room for upward revision.

Deutsche Bank maintained Tesla's price target at $1200 per share. Tesla shares rose nearly 50 percent in 2021, ending the past year with strong gains.

Deutsche Bank still believes that 2022 could be a key year for Tesla's future growth and profitability, with the company's new factories in Berlin and Austin gradually expanding, new models coming soon, 4680 batteries about to begin in-house production, and possibly a wider rollout of fully autonomous driving software.