Unconsciously, 2021 has come to an end again, and someone once said: 2019 is the worst year in the past decade, but it is the best year in the next decade. Standing at the junction of 2021 and 2022, how should this sentence be tasted?
Looking back at the year of the automotive industry, under the change of the times, the domestic automobile market cannot be said to be turbulent, but there is always an undercurrent that stirs the heartstrings of our "restlessness". Chip shortage, data security, cross-border car manufacturing, 5G interconnection, new four modernizations... While china's automotive industry is meeting great opportunities, it is also facing unprecedented new challenges, and the old pattern seems to be in jeopardy.
In the face of 2022, one cannot help but wonder, will there be major changes in the old automotive market pattern? Can new energy vehicles continue to sell well? Xiaomi, Jidu and even Foxconn have not yet launched their own new energy products?
In short, will 2022 be better? From some of today's clues, we seem to be able to see some clues, perhaps to find new opportunities for the automotive industry in the midst of change, as an expectation and imagination for 2022.
The adjustment of the equity ratio of the joint venture will enter a climax
On the evening of December 28, 2021, depressing news came out that the adjustment is expected to be completed in mid-2022, after which BYD's shareholding will increase from 50% to 90%, while the shareholding of another joint venture, Daimler, will drop to 10%. Since then, Denza has become the last car company to announce a share ratio adjustment in 2021.
Of course, debating the stock ratio is not the first, nor is it the last. As everyone knows, first there is BMW Brilliance, JAC Volkswagen, and then there is Dongfeng Yueda Kia, GAC FCA, these joint ventures have long opened the prelude to the adjustment of the equity ratio of China's automobile industry. It is foreseeable that in 2022, it seems that many joint ventures will come to "respond".
In fact, the day before the news of Denza's share ratio adjustment, the National Development and Reform Commission announced the "Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2021 Edition)", which abolishes the restriction on foreign ownership in passenger car manufacturing and the restriction that the same foreign investor can establish two or less joint ventures in China to produce similar vehicle products.
This means that the joint venture automobile enterprise model that began in 1984 may usher in a new adjustment: the iron law of 1994 stipulating that the foreign ownership ratio should not exceed 50% will be an ancient one. This inevitably makes people worry about this "moat" that protects domestic independent car companies, if abandoned, how domestic independent car companies will stand in the future.
However, under the wave of new energy, the domestic automobile industry is not as "weak" as in the 90s, at least, under the wave of electrification and intelligence today, the situation of China's new energy vehicle market is strong and technologically weak has been greatly changed, at present, a complete industrial system of upstream and downstream penetration has been established, and breakthroughs have broken through the key technologies in the core "three electricity" (that is, batteries, motors, and electronic controls) fields. At that time, the weak situation has long ceased to exist, when foreign-funded enterprises adjust the direction of the stock ratio, there may be new "changes", the change of Denza is a good example, the future, there will be a lot.
Moreover, Mr. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Market Information Joint Committee, believes that "the product strength of some joint ventures has been slow to improve, the introduction of new technologies is lagging behind, and some joint ventures have suffered serious losses in profits in this year's "lack of core" environment due to the rigid supply chain. After the liberalization of the joint venture share ratio in 2022, the withdrawal of one party to some joint ventures is a reasonable choice. ”
Obviously, it is foreseeable that in 2022, in the face of the lifting of the restriction on the share ratio, some foreign-funded enterprises will adjust the share ratio, and will also attract multinational car companies to increase investment and cooperation in China.
New energy vehicles are facing a decline in subsidies, accelerating the growth of new energy vehicle companies
Coming to 2022, for the new energy vehicle market, it is not only good news, in addition to the rise in new energy vehicle premiums, China's new energy vehicle financial subsidy policy that has been extended for more than ten years will also enter the countdown to complete withdrawal. Obviously, the decline of subsidies may lead to a collective price increase in new energy vehicles.
On the morning of December 31, 2021, due to market fluctuations, Tesla has just raised the price of Model 3 and Model Y models, the price of Model 3 after subsidies is 265,652 yuan, the price of rear-wheel drive models rises by 10,000 yuan, and the price of dual-motor models remains unchanged; Tesla Model Y is priced at 301,840 yuan after subsidies, and the price of rear-wheel drive models rises by 21,008 yuan, and the price of dual-motor models remains unchanged.
On the same day, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", and the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. At the same time, it is also emphasized that in order to maintain the good development momentum of the new energy automobile industry, comprehensively considering factors such as the development plan of the new energy automobile industry, the market sales trend and the smooth transition of enterprises, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized.
"The subsidy decline of 30% will have a certain impact on the growth rate of new energy vehicles, especially the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles, in fact, the scale is greatly reduced compared with last year, whether it is the amount of subsidized bicycles or the total amount, it is in a relatively low state." Therefore, car companies are facing the challenges of the post-subsidy era, and they will inevitably adjust their prices. Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, said.
However, judging from the decline in subsidies in the past few years, although the reduction of subsidies will bring certain fluctuations to the sales of new energy vehicles, the impact is short-lived and decreasing year by year. In fact, with the decline of financial subsidies year by year, by 2021, the government's financial support for new energy vehicles has been reduced to a low level, and the attraction to consumers is not too big. However, in this context, China's new energy vehicles will still maintain an explosive growth trend in 2021, and they are still accelerating to seize the original market share of fuel vehicles.
According to public data, as of November 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in this year has doubled compared with 2020, the domestic new energy vehicle market share has also increased from 5.4% at the beginning of 2021 to 12.7%, and the retail penetration rate of domestic new energy passenger vehicles has exceeded 20%, reaching 20.8%. This means that China's new energy automobile industry has entered the growth period from the market cultivation period, and has shifted from being mainly policy-driven to market-driven in the past.
It can be seen that the decline of subsidies is an inevitable trend in the development of new energy vehicles, which cannot stop new cars from accelerating the pace of iterating on fuel vehicles, but on the contrary, the survival of the fittest accelerates the growth of new energy vehicle companies and provides a good market-driven ecology.
Auto Network Review: The wave of reshuffling in the auto industry will be even more turbulent
As Dickens put it, "This is the best of times, it's the worst of times." "It can be seen that the huge market capacity, huge technological transformation opportunities, and huge cross-border integration of ecological development potential have brought huge business opportunities and unlimited business possibilities."
But the ideal is very full, the reality is very bone, and the results of the real landing have not yet been shown. For today's domestic automotive industry, changes and challenges are repeated and continuous, and this state will become the norm for a long time to come. The confrontation between the old forces and the new forces will be further escalated in the future competition, gradually evolving from an undercurrent to a mighty river.
Of course, at this critical point in time, in this critical market environment, who is the main ups and downs, for ordinary consumers, a good drama is waiting for the opening, just wait and see what happens.