Written by | Zhao Zhefeng
Edit | Yang Bocheng
The new energy vehicle companies that have grown up by policy dividends have come to "wean" time.
On the last day of 2021, the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022" jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions of the state pointed out that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. The program will be implemented from January 1, 2022.
This year will be the last year for new energy vehicles to enjoy cash subsidies, according to the regulations, pure electric vehicles with a price of no more than 300,000 yuan before subsidies can enjoy the following subsidies: pure electric vehicles with a range of between 300-400km, the subsidy amount in 2021 is 13,000 yuan, and the subsidy will be reduced by 3900 yuan in 2022. Pure electric vehicles with a range greater than 400km will have a subsidy of 18,000 yuan in 2021 and will be reduced by 5,400 yuan in 2022; a plug-in hybrid model with a pure electric endurance of more than 50km will be subsidized by 6,800 yuan in 2021 and will be reduced by 2,040 yuan in 2022.
In the face of the new subsidy policy, how do major car companies respond? How will this affect the new energy vehicle market and consumers? Can new energy vehicle companies thrive after "weaning"?
Tesla was caught off guard
In fact, for the decline of new energy subsidies, car companies have long been prepared.
For example, as early as the end of November last year, Tesla raised the price of the after-wheel drive version of its Model 3/Y official website by 4752 yuan, which is basically equivalent to the decline of subsidies. Although it rose a wave of prices on December 31, from the perspective of price increases, the price increase should not be related to the decline of subsidies, mainly due to the rising cost of components such as power batteries.
▲The left picture is the price at the end of November, and the right picture is the latest price
And this can also be seen from the estimated subsidy amount after the two price increases on its official website (Tesla's official website price is not an informal price, but an estimated price), which is 11,088 yuan, and this price increase has not adjusted the figure, indicating that it has nothing to do with the refund.
Because the subsidy amount is determined according to the time of the vehicle listing, the current delivery cycle of Tesla's models is generally longer, so this move is equivalent to informing consumers in advance that there is a possibility of price increases. From this point of view, the manufacturer's approach is reasonable.
However, when the information is transmitted to the terminal channel, there seems to be some deviation.
When DoNews asked Tesla sales staff about subsidy-related matters in the morning of the release of the subsidy new policy (December 31), the other party said that "it is estimated that the policy will be implemented in January or February, and if you book more than a month in advance, you may also get the 2021 subsidy."
But in fact, the new policy has been implemented since January 1, and the salesman's estimate of the implementation of the policy is obviously not accurate, which is likely to be misleading to consumers.
At present, Tesla's official website shows that the Model 3's pick-up cycle is 12-16 weeks, which means that if you want to get the 2021 subsidy, you must order a car before the beginning of October at the latest, but the sales will set this time point at the end of November.
In addition, other media have also appeared in the process of interviewing Tesla sales before.
A Tesla salesman once told the daily economic news reporter that "although the official website has raised the price, if the policy has not been implemented when the car is picked up, then it is still paid according to the price before the decline, and the decline policy is expected to be implemented in the first quarter of 2022, not January 1." ”
From this point of view, Tesla sales' prediction of the time point of policy implementation is not accurate, and this phenomenon is still widespread.
The time difference between these is likely to make consumers have wrong psychological expectations. If it is found at the time of delivery that the actual price is higher than the price originally stated at the time of sale, even if the latter does not make a verbal commitment, the consumer will inevitably be suspicious.
Considering that in recent years, Tesla has frequently experienced incidents such as quality defects, allocation reductions, and arbitrary price reductions, consumer sentiment is easy to be "provoked", and if the withdrawal incident is not handled properly, it may damage its brand image again.
Domestic car companies collectively push "limited time extended warranty"
Compared with Tesla, which is "dynamically adjusted", the response of domestic car companies is more humane. For example, Weilai and Xiaopeng, among the new power car companies, have recently launched a "limited-time insulation" policy.
Among them, NIO announced on December 1 that as long as it orders a car before December 31 (except ET5/ET7) and pre-exists on March 31, it can enjoy the 2021 subsidy standard (due to the policy to encourage the development of electric vehicles, WEILAI is not subject to the standard of "selling less than 300,000 yuan").
Xiaopeng issued a policy on December 24: before January 11, you can enjoy the 2021 subsidy standard, including all models sold.
In fact, the introduction of a limited-time insurance policy is also a common method used by car companies every time the subsidy is about to decline.
For example, before the cancellation of the ground subsidy time in 2019 (the national subsidy for this decline), many car companies, including BYD, have launched a "delayed price insurance" strategy, and some even as long as half a year, which is essentially a car company extending the consumer's car purchase bonus period at their own expense, so that consumers can have a transition psychologically.
Although this method will consume a lot of money, the advantage is that it can stabilize market sentiment and sales, and at the same time, it can leave a good reputation for the brand. For a user-oriented enterprise like Weilai, the importance of word-of-mouth is self-evident.
In addition, the introduction of the insurance policy at this time can also rush a wave of sales for the end of the year. This policy has proved to have played a very clear role.
When DoNews tried to consult the Weilai dealer in Beijing on December 31, it made several consecutive phone calls and heard a reply that "the other party is busy and cannot be connected for the time being", and it is estimated that sales are busy taking orders.
In addition, we also learned in the exchange with BYD sales staff that this year, BYD has also launched a limited-time insurance policy as usual, and the deadline for booking vehicles to enjoy the 2021 subsidy is December 31. And the other party said, "Because of this, the store ordered 15 cars this morning."
Like BYD, which did not issue any official statement but silently "issued welfare", there is Chery New Energy. "As long as you book a car before December 31, no matter when it is licensed, it will be subsidized according to the 2021 standard, and the loss will be borne by the manufacturer," Chery New Energy sales staff told DoNews.
The introduction of a time-limited insurance policy by car companies is obviously a good thing for consumers who have recent demand for cars. But this also means that car companies have to bear a part of the loss, in the face of this situation, will car companies adjust the vehicle configuration to reduce costs?
After we asked a number of new energy vehicle dealers, the other party said that there would be no reduction in allocation, and Weilai Sales said that "if this kind of thing is not handled well, it will fight a lawsuit."
Indeed, at present, the phenomenon of reducing the allocation of new energy vehicles, such as Tesla and Euler, is mostly due to passive factors such as rising battery costs or chip shortages. But since they have taken the initiative to make a price insurance commitment for consumers, car companies are unlikely to make such self-defamatory behavior, otherwise it is "good things become bad things".
Of course, not all car companies are so "humane". At present, there are still some car companies that have no reaction to the new subsidy policy. For example, GAC E-An, Changan New Energy, SAIC-GM-Wuling and other brands, the author after consulting a number of dealers of these brands, have been similar to "the current manufacturer policy has not come down, next year the price will definitely rise, but the specific time is not easy to say".
How does "weaning" develop?
In 2021, domestic sales of new energy vehicles are expected to be 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 times, achieving the most violent outbreak in recent years. At the same time, the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in non-restricted cities has also exceeded 70% for the first time, which can fully explain that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven.
For the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, industry professionals generally believe that it will not affect the overall development trend of the new energy vehicle market.
For example, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, believes that "price increase is a short-term phenomenon, from the perspective of market competition, as more and more car companies begin to transform new energy, and technology continues to progress, price decline will become a long-term trend."
And from past experience, China has gradually reduced the subsidy amount of new energy vehicles since 2019, but sales have increased year by year, indicating that the impact of subsidies on the market is gradually shrinking.
On the other hand, from the perspective of the magnitude of the subsidy decline, it is only about 2000-5000 yuan, compared with the 30,000-50,000 yuan of the cancellation of the ground subsidy in 2019, the magnitude of the decline is not at all in an order of magnitude.
However, although the general trend will not change, local pain is still unavoidable. Among them, the most affected is the micro-electric vehicle market.
For micro-pure electric vehicles priced at 30,000-80,000 yuan, their users are more sensitive to price, and even the price difference of several thousand yuan will greatly affect their decision-making.
On the side of car companies, in order to maintain the micro-electric vehicle market, they can only subsidize users out of their own pockets. But the problem is that the profit of this type of bicycle is only a few thousand yuan, if the car company to make up for the difference, then there is no profit to speak of, so this is not a long-term solution.
In this situation, some car companies will find another way.
For example, zero running, which launched the 2022 zero-run T03 on December 28, in the case that the cost has inevitably increased, simply let the vehicle be further strengthened in terms of intelligence, auxiliary driving, etc., and the overall price range was raised by about 10,000 yuan to impact a higher-level market segment, in order to offset the impact of subsidy decline.
Since the low-end market can no longer be retained, it is simply an upward impact. Although this is also a line of thinking, from the perspective of implementation, because this type of model has left consumers with "low-end" and "cheap" cognition, it is obviously not much chance of winning only through the improvement of configuration to compete with higher-level models.
It can be seen that no matter which method is adopted, the micro-pure electric vehicle market will become the "hardest hit area" after the subsidy declines.
More importantly, micro-pure electric vehicles still have a pivotal position in the new energy market.
In 2021, the sales increase of domestic new energy passenger cars will be about 1.1 million, of which the micro pure electric vehicles represented by Hongguang MINI EV and Chery Small Ant have contributed about 550,000 of them (note that the increase is not sales), which can be said to be the "number one hero" of the new energy vehicle sales outbreak.
Therefore, the impact of this withdrawal on the market in the short term cannot be ignored. But in the long run, the pros outweigh the cons.
Due to the low technical content of such micro pure electric vehicles in terms of intelligence and electrification, it is not beneficial to the transformation and upgrading of China's automobile industry. The change in the market structure after the withdrawal will force enterprises to strengthen technology research and development.
epilogue
In fact, the central government has been subsidizing new energy vehicles since 2009, and it has been 12 years now.
And according to the original plan, the state had planned to "one-size-fits-all" new energy subsidies in 2020. However, under the influence of the epidemic, the state decided to switch to the strategy of gradient reimbursement, that is, from 2020, the subsidy amount will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% every year until 2022.
This move now seems to be crucial, in the first half of 2020, the new power car companies, including "Wei Xiaoli", as well as new energy brands or products in traditional car companies, are experiencing the darkest moment. If the subsidy had been directly "one size fits all" at that time, there would be no situation in which the domestic new energy vehicle market bloomed.
Today, the development of the new energy vehicle industry has basically reached the original expectations, and the subsidy policy is also time to withdraw from the historical stage.
Subsequently, with the further increase in the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in non-restricted cities, it is expected that the "priority license" policy will also be gradually cancelled. At that time, the new energy vehicles that are completely "weaned" will confront the fuel vehicles in the market.
END