On the last day of 2021, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2022 officially "landed on the ground", and the financial subsidies for new energy vehicles that lasted for more than ten years also entered the countdown to complete withdrawal.
On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022 (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"). The "Notice" said that the subsidy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be smoothly declining; in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% on the basis of 2021 for urban buses, road passenger transport, rental (including online car-hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and party and government organs.
At the same time, the Notice clearly states that in order to maintain the good development momentum of the new energy automobile industry, comprehensively considering factors such as the development plan of the new energy automobile industry, the market sales trend and the smooth transition of enterprises, the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be terminated on December 31, 2022, and the vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. This means that 2022 will be the last year to implement the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles.
30% decline from 2021
Pure electric passenger car subsidy 0.91 million yuan / 12,600 yuan
According to the content of the "Notice", the current framework and threshold requirements of the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. Under the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2021, pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range of 300-400 km (including 300 km) will be subsidized by 13,000 yuan, and pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range greater than 400 km (including 400 km) will be subsidized by 18,000 yuan.
According to the 2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan, under the new energy subsidy policy in 2022, the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range of 300-400 km (including 300 km) is 0.91 million yuan, the subsidy for pure electric passenger cars with a cruising range greater than 400 km (including 400 km) is 12,600 yuan, and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid (including extended range) passenger cars is 0.48 million yuan.
In the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan", it is mentioned that the calculation method of the subsidy amount of pure electric passenger car bicycles is that the Min{ mileage subsidy standard, the vehicle with electricity ×280 yuan} × the energy density adjustment coefficient of the battery system × the adjustment coefficient of vehicle energy consumption, and at the same time requires that the selling price before the subsidy does not exceed 300,000 yuan (except for the power exchange mode); for new energy passenger cars purchased by non-private purchase or used for operation, subsidies are given according to 0.7 times the corresponding subsidy amount.
In terms of commercial vehicles, the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Promotion Subsidy Plan" shows that the subsidy for non-fast-charging pure electric buses is 14,000 yuan, 30,800 yuan and 50,400 yuan; the subsidies for fast-charging pure electric buses are 11,200 yuan, 22,400 yuan and 36,400 yuan, and the subsidies for plug-in hybrid (including range extender) buses are 0.56 million yuan, 11,200 yuan and 21,300 yuan.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said that according to the latest released policy, the current purchase subsidy technical indicator system framework and threshold requirements will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will be relaxed from the original expected upper limit of 2 million subsidies to achieve subsidies throughout the year.
In April 2020, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles", and the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles was extended to the end of 2022, in principle, the subsidy standards for 2020-2022 were reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year; vehicles that meet the requirements in the field of public transportation will not retreat in 2020. The subsidy standards for 2021-2022 will be reduced by 10% and 20% respectively on the basis of the previous year, and in principle, the annual subsidy scale is capped at about 2 million vehicles.
In fact, China's new energy vehicle subsidies can be traced back to 2009. Since 2009, the central government has given subsidies to the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, as of now, China's new energy vehicle market has enjoyed 12 years of policy subsidy dividends; the reporter's preliminary statistics show that by the end of 2021, the Ministry of Finance has announced the liquidation and review of 19 batches of new energy vehicle promotion and application subsidy funds, with a cumulative amount of more than 140 billion yuan.
In Cui Dongshu's view, "In the early stage of the promotion of new energy vehicles, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles played an effective role in promoting market share growth. According to the data of the China Automobile Association, China's new energy vehicles increased from 5209 in 2009 to 1.367 million in 2020, and in the first 11 months of 2021, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles in China completed 3.023 million and 2.99 million units respectively, an increase of 1.7 times year-on-year, and sales have exceeded the annual expectations.
However, the subsidies of real money and silver also breed fraudulent compensation, and car companies such as Lifan Automobile, Jinhua Youth Automobile, and SAIC Tangshan Bus have been punished with administrative penalties for cheating compensation. Therefore, since the large-scale inspection of the production of new energy vehicles in 2016, the technical threshold of subsidies for new energy vehicles in China has increased year by year, showing a tendency to encourage high endurance and high technology. In 2015, the mainstream mileage of domestic pure electric passenger cars was 200-300 kilometers, and in 2019, the mainstream mileage of domestic pure electric vehicles has reached 400 kilometers; in 2021, many car companies have been laying out models with long mileage, and most models have a mileage of more than 500 kilometers.
In the view of Yan Jinghui, an analyst in the automotive industry, the technical threshold of subsidies has forced enterprises to lay out higher-level products, and at the same time, higher-level products are less affected by subsidies.
Car companies have mixed reactions
The impact of the short-term growth trend has not changed
As the main body of the market, various car companies have already prejudged the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and made corresponding adjustments.
On the day of the release of the policy, Tesla announced on its official website that the domestic Model 3 rear-wheel drive version rose from 255,652 yuan to 265,652 yuan, an increase in price of 10,000 yuan; the starting price of the domestic Model Y rear-wheel drive version was raised from 280,752 yuan to 301,840 yuan, an increase of about 21,100 yuan; it is worth noting that the price of the Model Y rear wheel drive version after the price increase exceeded 300,000 yuan and no longer enjoys new energy vehicle subsidies This means that in the entire Tesla product lineup, only the Model 3 rear-wheel drive version can enjoy new energy vehicle subsidies.
Tesla did not explain the price adjustment; as early as November 24, Tesla announced an increase in the price of the Model 3 rear-wheel drive version and the Model Y rear-wheel-drive version, which was explained as a result of the expectation of the adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2022.
Also on the day of the release of the policy, the 2022 car purchase subsidy plan released by WEILAI Automobile said that users who paid a deposit to purchase ES8, ES6 and EC6 before December 31, 2021 (inclusive), and whose cars were pre-appointed on March 31, 2022, can still enjoy subsidies in accordance with the 2021 national subsidy standards, and the difference will be borne by WEILAI; Xiaopeng Automobile said that it will launch a "limited-time insurance policy" from January 1 to January 10, 2022. The proposed retail price after the comprehensive subsidy is paid during the above period and the proposed retail price remains unchanged from 2021.
In addition, FAW-Volkswagen also made it clear on the countdown poster that the new energy state subsidy will decline by 5400 yuan from January 1, 2022; SAIC Feifan Automobile (R Car) dealers also said that they will adjust the price from January 1, 2022; BYD said in response to investors that it will carry out product matrix layout based on market demand and its own planning.
"Even if the price of new energy vehicles increases, it is a short-term phenomenon." Cui Dongshu believes that "with the accelerated transformation of car companies to layout new energy and the continuous advancement of technology, car companies want to maintain vehicle competitiveness, and price decline will become a long-term trend." However, in the short term, car companies still have to face the pressure brought by the post-subsidy era. ”
Although the decline in subsidies has an impact on the sales of the terminal market, it is generally believed that the new energy vehicle market has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, and the impact of subsidy decline on the overall market growth of new energy vehicles is limited. In fact, new energy vehicle subsidies have been in a state of gentle decline in recent years, and with the decline of new energy vehicles, the annual sales of new energy vehicles have not fluctuated greatly, only a slight decline of 4% in 2019; the overall sales in 2020 and 2021 have shown a growth trend, and are expected to increase by 1.6 times year-on-year in 2021.
The industry generally believes that the impact of the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles on market growth is limited, and the overall situation is still showing steady growth. Cui Dongshu believes that under the new policy of new energy vehicle subsidies in 2022, it is expected that there will be a strong increase in sales at the end of 2022, which will promote a substantial increase in sales throughout the year; previously, it was expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 would be 4.8 million, and now adjusted to 5.5 million, the market penetration rate of new energy passenger cars is about 25%, and the overall sales of new energy vehicles are expected to increase to 6 million, and the market penetration rate is about 22%.
Proofreading Danger
![The new energy subsidy with a monthly loss of 50 million yuan has declined, who can bear it in addition to Tesla?[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)