By the end of 2021, Chinese consumers have obviously completed their familiarity with the car price increase, without too many waves. Tesla's industry top goods have raised/decreased their prices again and again, which is good for tens of thousands of new owners every month to have no complaints. Of course, the current topic is not about Tesla, a new energy vehicle company, but all car companies have to face, in 2022, China's auto market subsidies will further decline, until 2023 complete withdrawal, and seek to achieve the goal of full marketization.
Without subsidies, according to the hard power of enterprises, let go of the fight.
Although Musk also commented on his own Twitter: "All countries and regions should not have subsidies for electric vehicles, this is not fair." But he forgot that he can get more than 1 billion yuan in the Chinese market a year, and in the next US + Japan market, with the improvement of the subsidy policy, he and Tesla can get more.
With the recent increase in Tesla's car price / Xiaopeng's part of the car purchase rights adjustment / WEIlai sent users a text message that can enjoy the existing subsidies / Volkswagen sent to users to promote the upcoming price increase, etc., according to the previous management, the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 will be released in December.
According to the public's publicity to users, enterprises with monthly sales of more than 10,000 = less subsidies of 50 million
As for the number of new energy subsidies in 2022, the number of slopes can probably be found from 2 angles. One is the corresponding proportion provided in the previously released policy, and the other is the figure mentioned in the latest consumer promotion of car companies.
On the policy side, the relevant notice of the Ministry of Finance pointed out that the implementation period of the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles was extended to the end of 2022. The subsidy standards for 2020-2022 will be reduced by 10%, 20% and 30% respectively on the basis of the previous year, and by 2023, the existing subsidy methods are expected to be completely withdrawn.
That is to say, the subsidy will be further reduced in 2022 on the basis of the existing 13,000 yuan / 18,000 yuan / 0.68 million yuan, the proportion of which is 30%. However, the final policy implementation is needed to see that 30% of it is an overall calculation method or a classification calculation method.
From the corresponding publicity of car companies, the corresponding figures are also reflected at present. The news recently released on the official Weibo of FAW-Volkswagen is that the state subsidy will decline by 5400 yuan from January 1, 2022, and according to its ID.4 CROZZ/ID.6 CROZZ, the pure electric mileage will exceed 400 kilometers, that is to say, the subsidy for models with a cruising range of more than 400 kilometers in 2022 will be 12,600 yuan, which is divided from 18,000 yuan in 2021, the difference is 30%.
Tesla's price change, because its corporate operating logic "cost decline / rise is directly linked to the direct price of the model", coupled with its goodwill that does not care too much about the traditional car circulation model is more biased towards the logic of digital products, there has not been much law. From the perspective of its recent price adjustment, since the end of November, the main sales bearers Model 3 and Model Y have raised prices between 50 million and 15,000 yuan, coupled with their confidence guarantee plan has been cancelled in 2020, and the corresponding costs continue to be borne by consumers.
Xiaopeng's recent adjustment of car purchase rights can also make us perceive the possibility of future price changes to a certain extent. Its solution is more reasonable, placed in the optional rights and the corresponding installment 0-profit / low profit program part, equivalent to the amount of about 4000-5000 yuan.
Combined with the above-mentioned head car enterprise amount adjustment plan and the corresponding policies, more than 400 highway endurance retreat of 5000 yuan and above is a relatively convergent corresponding cognition, and if calculated in this way.
For car companies with monthly sales of more than 10,000 yuan (monthly delivery of more than 10,000 yuan), after the subsidy for bicycles with a range of more than 400 kilometers is reduced by 5,000 yuan or more, the average monthly income will be reduced by more than 50 million yuan. For non-head car companies, it mainly refers to those models with insufficient competitiveness in the mainstream market and advantages in the space of difference (such as the current mileage of more than 300 kilometers and less than 400 kilometers), and their bicycle subsidies are reduced by about 3900 yuan, mainly involving models including Euler, Chery New Energy, Nezha, BYD, Geely New Energy's entry-level products. The market capacity is not too large, and the corresponding reduction amount is relatively limited.
As for the most popular entry-level models in the market at present - Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, Changan Ben E-Star, Reading Mango, etc., because the mileage of its main sales models does not exceed 300 kilometers, it does not enjoy corresponding state subsidies. The advantage is that new energy positive integrals can be generated as a profit growth point for transactions between manufacturers.
Tesla's enterprise operating model can bear it, who else?
However, for the current auto companies, the subsidy decline is a predictable behavior that has been notified before, and unlike the "sudden" decline in 2019, all car companies have relatively more time to prepare their own solutions.
It can be for the cost reduction of traditional fields, can make consumers pay for the cost of increase, can give up part of their own profits, but also can adjust the operation ideas of enterprises, so that more profits come from software, points and so on.
Under the subsidy decline in 2022, there are 2 types of enterprises that can be more obviously not affected too much, the first type is Tesla' famous / profit source does not rely on the gross profit of traditional bicycles, and the second type is the low-cost entry market that has nothing to do with the subsidy policy before.
Tesla's business operation model, in this world has been interpreted many times, the point of separation from the traditional automobile manufacturing industry is that it relies on the capital market / high market value as the energy to complete the construction and promotion of continuous enterprise technology / manufacturing / direct sales and other systems, and the profit mode part, can give up the traditional bicycle profit pain points, by carbon point trading, car rental, software optional payment, etc. to achieve a single quarter of more than 1 billion US dollars of net profit, creating a market value of nearly one trillion. In contrast, Volkswagen Group's net profit in 2020 was 8.82 billion euros, and Toyota Motor Group's net profit in 2020 was around 20.8 billion US dollars. Tesla, which produces and sells about 500,000 units in 2020, has matched 8.7 million vehicles on the Toyota Group, and Tesla's EBIT 2020 is $1.85 billion, and its profitability has basically equaled that of the Toyota Group, and it may complete the surpass in 2021.
In its profit performance, the relevant proportion of subsidies is not high in nature, and based on Tesla's digital sales model, consumers are also willing to bear the cost increase. As for the low-cost entry-level pure electric model, the subsidy has nothing to do with it, so it is not within the scope of discussion, as for how long the future long-term development of low-cost entry-level models can be, it is closely related to national policies and low-speed electric vehicle replacement capacity, etc., and no conclusive judgment is made.
In addition, who can enter the era of full market competition for new energy vehicles without sticking to the leaves, and see that the giant enterprises that have determined the transformation, the shares of traditional fuel vehicles that have been explored after technological breakthroughs, and the unique technology leading enterprises have obvious advantages. The pressure will be on the relevant enterprises with insufficient product/technology layout, insufficient cash flow/financing channels, and insufficient brand power/ownership.
For example, Volkswagen, which has determined the transformation plan and is advancing in the ice-breaking process, has now handed over the sales performance of the ID. series in the Chinese market for several consecutive months, although there is still a lot of gap between it and the high target it has previously set, but its cash flow capacity / blood supply capacity of the fuel vehicle sector, as well as the future standardized battery / battery business independent listing / group further cost reduction and other plans, can share the subsidy decline related figures.
The typical case of technological breakthroughs bordering the share of traditional fuel vehicles is the likes of BYD. For example, pure electric vehicle models of about 100,000 yuan can achieve an endurance of more than 400 kilometers, while the single month delivery volume is high / the profit of the bicycle is sufficient, etc., the traditional joint venture brand currently does not encroach on the ability to explore. For example, after the launch of DM-i technology, Qin PLUS DM-i used plug-in hybrid technology to cut into the share of traditional fuel A-class sedans of 105,800-145,800 yuan, and Song PLUS DM-i cut into the share of traditional A-class fuel SUVs with a price of 146,800-19.98 million yuan, both of which remained high in single-month sales (about 20,000 units). Therefore, because of the technical/cost advantages, the subsidy decline is actually a more obvious benefit for BYD.
Weilai Automobile, which holds the power exchange mode, can have a good exemption from subsidy decline because of its differentiated technical advantages/technical iteration effects. Xiaopeng Automobile's situation is actually the same, it currently has a large enough intelligent advantage (intelligent cockpit / driving), and He Xiaopeng in the earliest Xiaopeng G3 new / old event, has been strengthening the company's performance capacity and consumer equal rights, etc., its profit growth points are more from the software level, so the same exemption ability is strong.
As for the enterprises under pressure, there are also many typical cases at present.
Ideal car, its current main sales model of the technical route is not pure electric, its own subsidy amount is not high, less affected by the decline. However, in view of its announced plans, it is currently increasing the promotion of pure electric vehicle models/platforms, and it is expected that the product will be close to the "subsidy-free era" when it is officially introduced to the market. Therefore, the consideration at the cost level should be further under pressure, after all, it did not have a corresponding architecture /three-power clear accumulation before, and the extended range technology part can be adapted, but many levels need to increase investment.
In addition, WM Motors is also a typical enterprise with greater pressure. Although there is a corresponding investment of Baidu behind it, Baidu's current division of troops - Jidu, Apollo, Weima, etc., means that its energy distribution is weighted. Although WM Automobile has a rush advantage in the market, the current market performance is not enough to achieve scale effect, with a cumulative sales volume of 39,095 units from January to November 2021, which is only equal to the delivery volume of the head new force enterprise in about 4 months.
On the contrary, Nezha Automobile and Zero Run Automobile, which are in the second-tier echelon of the new forces with WM Motors, are correspondingly more energetic. Nezha Automobile is backed by the 360 Group and has recently won a new credit line, and the recent sales of zero-run cars have climbed strongly, and they are also backed by large groups with abundant cash flow, and the vitality of both is better.
Write at the end:
Overall, matters related to the further decline of new energy subsidies will not have a greater impact on too many enterprises. The pressure is more due to the new and old enterprises with insufficient capital flow and insufficient blood supply capacity. For enterprises with strong disposable cash ability behind them/ enterprises have occupied the market trend, the relevant subsidy amount of 50 million yuan / month, although it is a staggering number on the surface, is not a problem that can be apportioned and passed on to enterprises.
For all the head enterprises, as long as they selectively give up a certain profit, they can maintain the existing market pattern. The real pressure is that those enterprises that are already under great financial pressure will cut off the corresponding income of subsidies, which will cause new problems in their capital distribution. These enterprises not only include new forces such as WM, but also traditional enterprises such as Jaguar that are in transformation.