Car Review Observation, Car Review Agency, No. 505
Foreword: The last business trip this year, across the Yangtze River, across the Yellow River, and "water" has a relationship, it is considered to be a good lottery for next year, which is quite meaningful.
And on the last day of 2021, please remember to thank yourself for your hard work!
When it comes to hard work, our automotive industry is also very powerful.
According to the car review agency, China's new car sales ranked first in the world for 12 consecutive years, and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China's total automobile sales in 2021 would be 26.1 million units, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year, and it is expected to achieve the first positive growth in 3 years in 2021.
Such achievements are not easy to come by, you know, the difficulties encountered by the automobile industry this year are more complex than in the past.
Not only the "recurrence" of the epidemic, the production capacity restriction of "core shortage", the rise in raw material prices, and the slowdown in consumption growth, the downward pressure on the automobile market is not small.
But fortunately, the continuous upward trend of independent brands and the rapid progress of the new energy vehicle market are impressive, and there are indeed many highlights in looking back at the inventory in 2021.
1
Autonomous upward confrontation joint venture
The growth of the domestic automobile market this year is closely related to the outbreak of sales of models of independent brands. According to the Auto Critics Agency, from January to November 2021, passenger car production and sales were 18.879 million units and 19.06 million units, up 6.9% and 7.1% year-on-year. Among them, the sales volume of self-owned brand passenger cars reached 8.406 million units, an increase of 25.1% year-on-year, and its market share increased from 37.7% to 44.1%, a significant increase over the same period.
Especially in October this year, the market share of independent brands swelled to 47%, reaching a historical peak.
Deeply investigate the reasons for the rise of independent brands, in fact, it is not accidental, let alone the Ashkenazi and Koreans who lost the market and took advantage of their own. Instead, independent brands have achieved comprehensive progress and evolution from the perspective of product design, research and development, technology, product strength, and insight into consumer needs. At the same time, the share of high-end brand products has also shown a rapid growth trend.
Among them, FAW Hongqi, Changan Automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor, BYD and other independent brands have not only launched high-end brands, but also created a number of star products, especially the "Wei Xiaoli" customer unit price of the head of the new force is not lost to luxury joint venture brands, such as the average price of Weilai bicycles exceeds that of Lexus and BMW; The average price of the ideal bicycle is above Audi and Tesla; The average price of Xiaopeng and Hongqi bicycles has also reached more than 200,000 yuan.
It can be seen that under the influence of the epidemic and the supply chain, the automobile market has gradually differentiated, although the joint venture brands have declined, but the independent brands have seized the "historical opportunity", and sales and the "stock market" have achieved contrarian growth.
It is worth mentioning that independent brand automobiles have also achieved excellent performance in overseas markets. Among them, SAIC Passenger Cars, Weilai and Datong have successively landed in Europe, and Great Wall, Geely and BYD have also joined the camp of "going to sea", setting off a new round of automobile export waves.
Chery Automobile, which has 20 years of experience in "going to sea", reached a new high, with the company's cumulative exports exceeding 240,000 in the first 11 months of this year, an increase of 138% year-on-year. This year, Chery Holding Group's exports have exceeded 20,000 vehicles seven times in a single month.
According to public data, china's cumulative automobile exports in the first 11 months of 2021 reached 1.793 million units, an increase of 1.1 times year-on-year. Among them, the export volume in November reached 200,000 units, an increase of 59.1% year-on-year. With the emergence of multiple positive factors, it is expected that the export of more than 2 million vehicles in 2021 is expected.
According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, the sales volume in 2022 is expected to exceed 27 million units, and next year's independent car brands are still promising.
2
New energy track must be contested
Since the beginning of this year, China's new energy vehicle market has shown a rapid development trend.
The latest data shows that domestic new energy passenger car sales of 2.99 million units, the penetration rate increased to 12.7%. According to the China Automobile Association, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 are expected to reach 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year.
Among them, the retail sales of mainstream domestic joint venture brands in November were 780,000 vehicles, down 23% from the same period last year. In the top ten list of new energy vehicle sales in November, only Tesla was a foreign car company, and the rest were Chinese car companies.
Specifically, the delivery volume of new car-making forces such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, and Nezha has continued to break through, and the current monthly sales have exceeded 10,000 vehicles. It can be seen that the domestic new energy vehicle consumption demand is strong, basically realized from the policy-driven, to the market-driven consumption-oriented conversion, consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles is getting higher and higher.
In addition, traditional car companies are not to be outdone in the layout of new energy, they pursue brand upwards, the layout of high-end intelligent electric, such as Dongfeng has Lantu, Changan has Aovita, Geely has Krypton, and the Great Wall has a salon. At the same time, hybrid technologies such as BYD's DMi, Great Wall Lemon, and Geely Thor X are also emerging in an endless stream, and the two-step "pure electricity + hybrid" has become a major weapon for independent rise.
It is reported that in 2022, the competitive new generation of hybrid models of their respective main brands will be listed one after another, providing reliable support for the growth of new energy vehicles. In addition, as the direction of the transformation of the global automotive industry, Chinese auto companies have taken the lead in the local new energy market.
It is worth noting that in 2022, the new energy track competition will be more intense, many joint venture car companies have placed heavy bets, in December Toyota released 16 new electric vehicles in one go, which is a signal.
3
The "adjustment" of the stock ratio followed
In addition to the sales volume and energy dispute this year, the "adjustment" of the corporate stock ratio after the survival of the fittest is also a major attraction.
Cheetah Cars, once the "military brother", is now torn apart.
As early as April this year, Geely Holding Group hosted the Changsha factory of Changfeng Cheetah, engaged in the production and sales of new energy vehicles; In October, Great Wall Motors took over the Cheetah Jingmen Base, and the new base settled in Jingmen, Hubei Province; In the same month, Anhui Cheetah Car was sold and transferred.
In May this year, Changan Peugeot Citroen officially changed its name to Baoneng Automobile, and there has been no DS in the market since then. In fact, since last year, Changan has admitted to paying 2.2 billion yuan out, and after 9 years of cooperation, the marriage between Changan Automobile and Peugeot Citroen has finally come to an end.
In June, Byton Motors came to a standstill after burning 8.4 billion. Some media have reported that the company's implementation of the "high-end office" concept, quite generous, and finally burned out the investors' money, but there is no mass production car, backed by the giant Byton Automobile will say goodbye.
On August 31 this year, it was reported that at the second creditors' meeting of the bankruptcy reorganization case of Brilliance Automotive Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Brilliance Auto), BMW China would acquire its own brand Zhonghua Automobile for 1.633 billion yuan.
On December 13, BAIC announced that it had increased its holdings in Daimler; On December 21, Yueda took 25% of the equity of Dongfeng Yueda Kia listed by Dongfeng Motor; On December 24, BYD announced that it had increased its holdings to 90%...
It can be said that in the past year, similar news about the collapse of car companies or changes in joint ventures has occurred intensively. However, among them, the most interesting is BMW's acquisition of Brilliance and Dongfeng's withdrawal from Dongfeng Yueda Kia.
Because, from January 1, 2022, China will remove the restriction on foreign ownership in passenger car manufacturing and the restriction that the same foreign investor can establish two or less joint ventures in China to produce similar vehicle products. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Special Administrative Measures for Foreign Investment Access (Negative List) (2021 Edition).
The series of moves by BMW and Kia have set a precedent for other joint venture brands.
It is worth noting that Volkswagen has also actively adjusted the share ratio of the joint venture company after the introduction of the new energy vehicle restriction policy. At the end of last year, Volkswagen adjusted the share ratio of JAC Volkswagen, which was established as a joint venture with JAC Motors in 2017, to 75% through capital increase and share expansion, and JAC Volkswagen changed its name to Volkswagen (Anhui).
In addition, Ford is also increasing its electrification strategy, not only planning to invest large sums of money, but also saying that 40% of the vehicles sold worldwide by 2030 will be electric models. Ford's current development in the Chinese market is not much better than that of the Korean system, how can it ensure the smooth progress of its electrification strategy? Independent development of new energy vehicle business is a new choice.
It can be seen that after the policy is liberalized, the layout of foreign car companies in China will no longer be restricted, bringing great convenience to the development of their business. However, independent car companies will face the pain of great changes in the industry, as well as the influence of foreign companies, and the era of survival by strength has come.
4
Battery "anxiety" power exchange/fast charge
This year, "battery" is still a hot topic, and Chinese car companies are obviously more responsive than foreign car companies, especially in the power battery supply chain.
At present, BYD has a mature power battery self-developed and self-produced system, and began to plan to divest the power battery business as early as 3 years ago. In addition, BYD is currently supplying power batteries to car companies such as FAW.
Great Wall Motors has also successfully incubated Hive Energy, which has squeezed into the top ten of domestic power battery installed capacity. In addition, in order to meet the ultra-long endurance and power of the whole vehicle, the large battery pack is still dominated by high-nickel ternary batteries, so solving the thermal runaway safety problem of ternary batteries is still the focus of the industry. In order to solve the safety problem of battery thermal runaway, Great Wall Motors has developed the Dayu battery technology of "never catching fire and never exploding".
In addition, this year, Geely and GAC have begun to build their own power battery factories, while the new car manufacturer Weilai said in September this year that it will develop its own power batteries.
As a power battery that accounts for about 25% of the cost of new energy vehicles, it has become a must for car companies. At present, the layout of foreign car companies in this field is relatively slow.
In addition, it is worth mentioning that in order to solve the "endurance anxiety" of the battery, Xiaopeng has nearly 2,000 in the rapid expansion of zho lifetime free charging service station project; Weilai Automobile has launched a project to replace the power station, and the owner can complete the replacement of the battery within 5 minutes after placing an order to enter the station.
At present, the number of substations has reached 777, and next year's plan is more than 1300. Whether it is Weilai's power exchange, or Xiaopeng's free charging, it is a plus for intended users, and it does alleviate the owner's endurance anxiety to a certain extent.
According to the China Automobile Association, China's new energy vehicle sales will exceed 5 million in 2022, an increase of nearly 50% year-on-year. Under the continuous outbreak of the market, the power battery industry will also usher in a new wave of development boom. Therefore, the control of the power battery supply chain will become one of the competitions between car companies, which will also force car companies to innovate and cooperate with power battery companies.
5
Scientific and technological innovation "intelligent manufacturing" future
Of course, in 2021, we have also seen many new cross-border gold diggers enter the "car". Previously, Baidu, Tencent, iFLYTEK, SenseTime, Maverick and other technology companies have successively poured into the automotive industry to seize the smart car market.
However, although they are cross-border, they have the same "intelligent" label, that is, they have superiority in intelligence.
For example, seeing the trend of automobile intelligence, Huawei officially announced its entry into the automotive field, and launched the automotive product - AITO Q&A M5 at the winter flagship new product launch just held.
In the view of Yu Chengdong, managing director of Huawei, CEO of consumer business, and CEO of smart car solution BU, this new car is a key part of Huawei's construction of the Internet of Everything ecosystem.
In addition, this year, huawei is rumored to form a joint venture with Volkswagen Group to jointly develop autonomous driving technology.
According to the report:
The joint venture company formed by Huawei and Volkswagen aims to provide solutions to the Volkswagen Group as a supplier, and one of the ways of cooperation discussed between the two sides is "Volkswagen pays money to become the controlling party of the joint venture company, and Huawei mainly contributes to the technical IP (intellectual property rights)", and the technical IP provided by Huawei includes not only software technology, but also Huawei's chip IP.
Although it is officially denied, behind the rumors reveals a fact: even the global auto giants, in the field of new intelligent technology, have not made technical reserves and quickly invested in this wave of technology. Previously, Huawei has reached a cooperation with Volkswagen's Audi car brand to provide Huawei's ADS autonomous driving technology solutions.
Therefore, the cooperation between car companies and technology companies has become inevitable, after all, scientific and technological innovation is the first productive force, and there will be a future with "intelligent manufacturing".
Overall, 2021 is a year of opportunities and challenges, the popularity of cross-border car manufacturing has not decreased, the head players continue to hug the group, and the chip problem still exists.
For 2022, here's a quote from Shufu Li's New Year's address:
"The world is changing, technology is changing with each passing day, and user needs are diversified and upgraded. We don't want to be subverted by the world, so we have to be ahead of the curve.
It is necessary to plan for the long term, but also to work in the present; Have both the courage to deny yourself and the ability to transcend yourself; It is necessary to maintain the advantages of traditional core capabilities, but also to create new revolutionary advantages, with a sense of urgency that only seizes the day, closely focus on the electrification and intelligent transformation of the automobile industry, strengthen the technology ecosystem, create sustainable competitiveness of enterprises, and create a value experience that exceeds expectations for users. ”
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