Passenger Cars: Narrow passenger cars are expected to sell 20.09 million units in 2021

On December 23, the Passenger Car Market Information Association released a forecast that domestic retail sales of narrow passenger cars will reach 2.05 million units in December, down 10.4% year-on-year; As a result, the estimated retail sales volume for the full year of 2021 is 20.09 million units, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year.

The improvement of the supply side and the popularity of new energy will boost the automobile market; However, the recurrence of the epidemic in many places has also brought more impacts to the consumer side than expected.

Yesterday (December 23), the Passenger Car Market Information Association issued a forecast that the retail sales of domestic narrow passenger cars in December will reach 2.05 million units, down 10.4% year-on-year; As a result, the estimated retail sales volume for the full year of 2021 is 20.09 million units, an increase of 4.1% year-on-year.

The above forecast is first based on the weekly trend, in the first three weeks of December, due to the repeated epidemic situation, as well as the limited improvement of supply-side vehicle sources, the sales volume of major automakers fell by about 10% year-on-year; Entering the fourth week, the market performance has picked up, and the year-on-year decline in sales is currently expected to be reduced to about 8%. At the end of this year, the "impulse" of car companies and dealers may be less than in previous years, so it is expected that sales in the fifth week will decline by 14% year-on-year. In summary, the association estimates that the retail sales in December will be 2.05 million units.

In addition, there are multiple factors that will affect narrow passenger car sales in December. On the supply side, although the supply of the automobile market improved in November, there is still a large gap relative to the market demand, and the terminal market is still in a structural shortage state. Entering December, the shortage of chip supply continues to improve, which will continue to promote the improvement of the undersupply of vehicles.

In anticipation of the peak of sales a few years ago, dealers are actively stockpiling inventory. According to the latest data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in November was 1.35, up 4.7% month-on-month, and the inventory level continued to rise.

At the beginning of next year, the new energy subsidy will be reduced by 30%, and most car companies choose to promote the price at the end of the year. Therefore, the new energy market will reach a new high in December will be a high probability event.

However, it is worth noting that the repeated epidemic situation in many places has brought more impacts to the consumer side than expected; The decrease in population mobility will also affect the sales climax before the Spring Festival; At the same time, the current promotion fee policy is expected to be maintained for a long time, which makes it difficult for December sales to have a significant "tail" effect. (China Economic Network reporter Guo Yue)