At the beginning of 2021, the market penetration rate of new energy vehicles is still less than 8%, and sales are more than 430,000 vehicles. However, only a few months later, the total sales volume of new energy passenger car terminals showed a continuous sharp upward trend, almost doubling to 752,200 units in the third quarter, with a total of more than 1.36 million units, and the market penetration rate also increased from 7.96% in the first quarter to 15.80% in the third quarter. As a result, a large number of industry researchers predict that the total production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 may exceed 2 million, and this growth rate will continue to increase in 2022, with total production and sales reaching 5 million.
However, there are also long-term observers of the new energy industry who believe that based on the upstream and downstream supply chains, the shrinking A00-level market, the outbreak of hybrid technology models, etc., the new energy vehicle market may slow down in 2022, and some industrial chains may even plummet. Here are the expert views:
In November 2020, an old friend of the author who was a leader in a new energy automobile company inadvertently talked about the fact that their power battery cathode materials had all been sold out, and even the forklift trays carrying raw materials had been sold out, and in the middle of the year, he was still worried about the dismal sales of products. This phenomenon is destined to become a very extraordinary year in the development of China's new energy vehicles in 2021.
From extreme pessimism in 2020 to extreme optimism in 2021. China's new energy automobile industry has a high fever in the test of ice and fire. According to incomplete statistics, in 2021, the scale of China's power battery enterprises can be statistically expanded to more than 1600Gwh, while the scale of China's lithium iron phosphate cathode material expansion plan has exceeded 5 million tons, which can support the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries of about 2000Gwh. As for others, including LiPF6, LiFSi, VINH, DMC, EC, diaphragm, copper foil, aluminum foil... And a series of auxiliary materials expansion plans are also in full swing.
In the author's view, the soaring growth rate of China's new energy automobile industry in 2021 is not a normal phenomenon of industry development, but the unlimited amount of QE in the United States during the new crown epidemic, the effective prevention and control of the epidemic in China, and the United States breaking its own leadership to break the global supply chain system... And a microcosm of the results caused by a series of other reasons.
Next, the author will briefly analyze the causes of the growth rate of New Energy Vehicles in China.
1. Mismatch between supply and demand in China's automotive industry. Before the end of 2020, due to the global epidemic, the domestic market has seen a large-scale decline in the supply of imported cars, and the phenomenon of continuous price increases has occurred. With the shortage of global chip supply caused by the epidemic, the total number of automobile production cuts in China and even the world will exceed about 10 million in 2021, and the scale of China's automobile production reduction will roughly exceed 1.5 million. As a new energy vehicle that accounts for less than 10% of the market segment in 2020, it has been given the opportunity to make up for it, and the lack of fuel vehicle supply has been digested.
2. The phenomenon of macro light mini ev exploded. In May 2020, when the Wuling Hongguang mini ev product announcement was just disclosed, the author made it very clear that it would be the hottest selling model in 2020. Not surprisingly, the mini ev phenomenon has led the entire new energy automobile industry to rapidly achieve a penetration rate of more than 99% in 2021, achieving a scale of more than one million in production and sales.
3. The advent of the era of affordable hybrids. The affordable hybrid technology represented by BYD's dmi technology (high thermal efficiency Atkinson/Miller cycle engine + dual motor series parallel DHT hybrid special transmission) and the corresponding subsidies and right-of-way policies quickly detonated the entire plug-in hybrid market, achieving an industry growth rate of more than 300%.
In 2022, China's new energy vehicle market will leap forward as rapidly as in 2021, achieving production and sales of 5 million or even 6 million vehicles, breaking through the penetration rate of more than 25%, and providing a high enough growth rate for power battery demand? The author believes that it is basically impossible to achieve, and even more pessimistic expectations of the power battery industry may appear to plummet in growth. Why?
1. The imbalance between supply and demand in the automotive industry will be greatly alleviated in 2022. After more than half a year of missing cores, after November 2021, the global chip supply has been greatly alleviated. In particular, the supply price of MCU chips has begun to fall after experiencing a sharp rise, according to the prediction of some electronic industry research institutions, the problem of missing cores will be solved after Q2 2022, the problem of automobile production reduction due to lack of cores will be greatly alleviated in 2022, and the phenomenon of new energy vehicles to make up for the supply gap will continue to decrease.
2. The high growth rate of micro-electric new energy models is no longer there. Micro-electric vehicles, which have quickly become 1/3 of the market share of new energy vehicles from scratch, can only be regarded as an upgrade of electric bicycles or a replacement for low-speed "old man music" in the mature Chinese automobile market, which has experienced nearly 20 years of development. Compared with the lowest price of fuel vehicles, it is difficult to have a large market space for products that can only maintain the "subsistence" level in basic performance. Under the double squeeze of the rapid upgrading of the demand for low-speed four-wheeled electric vehicles and A0-class pure electric passenger cars, the market share of A00-class micro-electric passenger cars may further shrink.
3. The explosion of affordable hybrid vehicles. Based on the high thermal efficiency Atkinson/Miller cycle engine + dual motor series parallel DHT hybrid special transmission power system hybrid/plug-in hybrid products, dozens of new models of various brands will be launched on the market on a large scale in 2022. On the one hand, under the same policy conditions, the market share of pure electric new energy vehicles with prices of 100,000-200,000 yuan or more will be rapidly squeezed, and the ultra-low fuel consumption level below 4L/100km will also seize the market share of some fuel vehicles. With the rapid popularization of affordable hybrid/plug-in hybrid models, the average load capacity of the corresponding power battery bicycle will shrink significantly.
The demand for power batteries brought about by the soaring demand in the downstream has soared, the upstream profiteering has attracted countless capital into the game, and the new energy automobile industry chain with high fever has been desperately expanding production driven by interests. If the growth rate is still high in the next year, the industry may be safe, if the growth rate plummets, there will be a large number of enterprise operation difficulties in the industrial chain.
EV Century believes that in the long run, the new energy industry is still the overall upward, but because its power battery cost accounts for a large proportion of the vehicle cost, so the factors involving all aspects of battery production, the impact on vehicle production and sales is still relatively large. In addition, after the subsequent easing of the more serious chip shortage problem in the early part of this year, the explosive sales growth may be short-term retaliatory or compensatory, and it is unlikely to be maintained for a long time.
However, the general direction of our automobile market and the automotive industry towards electrification and pure electrification will basically not change.