Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Liao Wei
"Production has been stopped, and the date of resumption of work is not yet known." On December 17, Ying Xufeng, chairman of Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as New Era Zhongneng), told Times Finance.
According to media reports, due to the continuous fermentation of the epidemic in Zhejiang, the local factory had to stop production. This includes two cobalt salt giants, namely Zhejiang Zhongjinggepai Lithium Battery Industry Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Gepai Lithium Battery) and Zhejiang New Era Zhongneng Recycling Technology Co., Ltd.
"Zhejiang is an important production base for nickel and cobalt raw materials, and due to the epidemic forced to stop production, the impact will be relatively large." On the 17th, Mo Ke, founder and CEO of True Lithium Research, pointed out to Times Finance. On the same day, Zhao Chao, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said in an interview with Times Finance that "the production of cobalt salt in Gepai lithium batteries and zhongneng in the new era belongs to the first echelon of the country, ranking in the top four of the subdivision industry, and the suspension of production of two enterprises is estimated to affect 15% of the entire industry, which also leads to the current supply of cobalt salt is relatively tight."
It is understood that cobalt is an important material for the manufacture of lithium batteries, cobalt salts generally refer to cobalt sulfate, cobalt chloride, cobalt carbonate, cobalt nitrate and other products, often used in the preparation of cathode materials for ternary batteries.
"The outbreak of downstream demand has made supply tight, and the shutdown of the epidemic has made it worse." For the impact of the suspension of production of the two cobalt salt giants mentioned above, Mo Ke said.
"We have cooperation with head power battery manufacturers, and we mainly supply cathode companies." Ying Xufeng said. On December 17, Times Finance sent an interview to CATL on this matter, but as of press time, there was no response. BYD told Times Finance on the same day that there is "no impact."
Fu Neng Technology insiders told Times Finance, "We have no direct cooperation with the aforementioned cobalt salt merchants, but the partners are not clear, and at present, we have not been affected for the time being." ”
Source | Network crazy cobalt price The midstream of the industrial chain is under pressure
According to relevant reports, the aforementioned cobalt salt manufacturers have stopped production a few days ago. After the news of the suspension of production was exposed, the price of cobalt salt went all the way up.
According to data from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on December 14, the average spot price of cobalt sulfate rose by 4,000 yuan / ton, and the average spot price of cobalt chloride jumped by 7,000 yuan / ton. As of December 16, the average spot price of cobalt sulfate rose to 99,000 yuan / ton, up 41,500 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 72.17%. The average spot price of cobalt chloride rose to 122,000 yuan / ton, up 54,750 yuan / ton from the beginning of the year, an increase of 81.4%.
In this context, the current cobalt price has hit a new high in nearly three years. But behind this crazy refresh of the historical high of cobalt prices, is the helplessness of the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain that are constantly under pressure.
"We just do processing, half of the raw materials come from battery recycling, half from upstream companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum." Because of the increase in the price of upstream raw materials, the net profit of the entire industrial chain is declining, and we are also like this, the net profit margin always goes up, showing a situation where flour and expensive bread are cheap. Ying Xufeng said, "As for whether the price of our products will increase in the future, look at the upstream supply situation and terminal sales, and move with market changes." ”。
Source | Internet
"Although the two cobalt salt giants have stopped production, this should have no impact on the company's material sales." For the reasons for the rise in cobalt prices, on the 17th, relevant people in Luoyang Molybdenum told Times Finance that "this is mainly affected by the epidemic, logistics and transportation are limited, and the timeliness is delayed, resulting in insufficient supply."
Data show that in 2020, the global proven reserves of cobalt will be about 7.1 million tons, of which about 50% will be distributed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), while China's proven cobalt reserves will be about 80,000 tons, accounting for only about 1% of the total global reserves. China's cobalt raw materials are mainly imported from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). However, affected by the overseas epidemic and international shipping, China's cobalt raw material imports continue to decline. The data shows that the cumulative import of cobalt intermediates during the year was 66,500 metal tons, an increase of 5% year-on-year; but the import volume in October was only 0.52 million metal tons, down 44% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month.
"On the supply side, affected by the epidemic and logistics and transportation, most of the material suppliers do not have much inventory, on the demand side, the demand for the new energy industry is strong, especially the overseas demand has recently been more concentrated, close to the end of the year, some cathode material factories are stocked in advance, everyone rushes to buy, and the cobalt price naturally goes up." Zhao Chao told Times Finance, "Before the first quarter of next year, cobalt prices will continue to rise, but the growth rate will slow down." The main thing is that the supply side will be gradually released, and the demand side is relatively stable."
"Lithium prices will not come down for a while and a half, and it is estimated that there will be a slight increase next year." Zhao Chao further pointed out, "Moreover, the price increase of upstream materials such as cobalt and lithium will inevitably be transmitted to downstream power battery factories and car companies."
The price of cobalt lithium has soared, and the power battery factory cannot hold up
In fact, the power battery and vehicle factories in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy industry chain are not only faced with crazy "cobalt" grandmas, but also brutal "lithium grandfathers".
Since the beginning of this year, the new energy vehicle track has become more and more hot, and the industry's demand for power batteries has also increased, but upstream lithium miners have been affected by the epidemic, the market is in short supply, and the price of lithium materials has soared. Relevant data show that since the beginning of this year, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen by more than 5 times, and the increase in lithium hydroxide and other materials is not small.
For the reasons for the increase in the price of lithium resources, market public opinion once interpreted as the scarcity of lithium resources, and under the market panic, lithium prices rose further. In this regard, the relevant person of Luoyang Molybdenum Industry said, "Lithium resources are not lacking. The reason why lithium prices have soared is mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand in the market, the growth of downstream demand is too fast, and the upstream response is not as good as the lack of supply. ”
"Lithium resources are just tightly supplied, not in short supply. However, the consequences of this year's raw material price increases have basically been borne by battery factories. Mo Ke also pointed out to Times Finance.
Tianfeng Securities previously released a research report that due to the market quotation of raw material prices, the actual purchase price of battery companies is lower than the market quotation, and the product performance, yield, and group rate of battery companies are improved, which can hedge the pressure of rising material costs. It is predicted that the actual increase in the cost of battery companies is about 20%-25%. Considering that long-term cooperation, bargaining power, procurement volume, account period, etc. will also have an impact on the actual purchase price of batteries by the vehicle factory, and the vehicle factory may form a compensation agreement with the battery factory on the price difference, the increased cost of the battery will be transmitted to the downstream but will not be fully transmitted to the downstream vehicle factory, and the purchase price of the battery at the end of the vehicle factory may actually increase by about 10%-20%.
According to the semi-annual report, the battery manufacturer Fu Neng Technology's revenue in the first half of the year was 877 million yuan, an increase of 207% year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was -226 million yuan, and the loss of 175 million yuan in the same period last year, penghui energy, Guoxuan hi-tech and other battery companies net profit growth rate can not keep up with the revenue growth rate. Ganfeng Lithium, Luoyang Molybdenum and other upstream material suppliers are indeed a different scene, of which ganfeng lithium net profit growth rate of more than 10 times the revenue growth rate.
"We and our partners generally sign long orders to ensure the supply of quantity, but the price will fluctuate with the market." Luoyang molybdenum industry related people said. In the case of rising prices of upstream materials, a new round of battery price increases has begun.
"We are already talking to the whole machine factory about price increases, and some of them have been negotiated." Some Fu Neng Technology insiders revealed to Times Finance that "the specific increase is not convenient to disclose, but it can be said that it is an ideal range, and we hope to achieve positive gross profit next year."
"Upstream raw material prices rise, our pressure is also very large, in the end whether to increase prices we are still in the wait-and-see, will negotiate with enterprises, not direct price increases." At the end of October, Guoxuan Hi-Tech insiders said in an interview with Times Finance on whether to increase prices, "The lithium battery industry chain is very long, and the company is still constantly improving the industrial chain."
"If it continues to rise, it will inevitably be transmitted to the demand terminal (such as electric vehicles), and it is estimated that electric vehicles will either increase in price or reduce allocation next year." Mercure said. Some insiders also said, "If the price of new energy vehicles increases or reduces allocations, it will inevitably affect the original good industry situation to a certain extent, and it remains to be seen how the new energy automobile industry, which is difficult to change from policy-oriented to market-oriented, will develop next."
"First, resolutely crack down on speculation and hoarding; second, promote the construction of a system for listed companies to disclose more information, and curb the reluctance to sell and hoard goods in the production link; third, encourage the increase of supply." For how power battery manufacturers and OEMs should respond to problems in the context of rising lithium prices, Mo Ke pointed out that "the competent authorities will do some work in these aspects."