Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Lin Qian
In the first quarter of 2022, when the epidemic was repeated in many places and the challenges of the automotive supply chain were still prominent, Tesla still delivered a performance that exceeded expectations.
According to Tesla (TSLA. NASDAQ) financial report shows that Tesla's Q1 revenue increased by 81% year-on-year to $18.8 billion, with market expectations of $17.78 billion; net profit of $3.318 billion, the market expected $2.156 billion. Among them, the automotive business revenue reached US$16.86 billion, an increase of 87% year-on-year, the automotive gross margin jumped to 32.9%, and the market expected 28.4%. According to times finance, Tesla's automotive gross profit margin in the four quarters of last year was 26.5%, 28.4%, 30.5%, and 30.6%, showing a rising trend.
In terms of deliveries, in the first quarter of this year, Tesla's global delivery volume was 310048 vehicles, and the output was 305407 vehicles, and the market demand was strong. In response, CEO Musk said on a conference call that "Tesla should be able to produce 1.5 million cars in 2022, and the problem we face is not limited demand, but limited production capacity."
Source | pexels.com deliveries up at least 50% this year
It is reported that supply chain challenges and the impact of the epidemic are an important reason for Tesla's insufficient production capacity.
Among them, Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory has stopped production twice due to epidemic prevention and control. However, with the help of relevant departments in the mainland, Tesla has officially resumed production activities at the factory on April 19.
According to times finance, tesla China accounted for 51.7% of Tesla's annual delivery report card, occupying "half of the country", which is of great significance. On the call, Musk also paid special tribute to Tesla's China team and the Shanghai factory.
"The number of people in the factory has reached more than 8,000, the battery and motor modules in the factory are being produced at full speed, and the assembly of the whole vehicle is gradually recovering." On April 19, Tesla insiders told Times Finance. At present, in the tesla phase II vehicle workshop, the automated vehicle production line has been running at a high speed, and 90 new cars have rolled off the production line every hour. Song Gang, senior director of Tesla manufacturing, revealed, "We will gradually climb production capacity in the next 3 or 4 days to the overall single shift full production." ”
Source | tesla
However, industry analyst Guo Mingqi said on Twitter that compared with the two-shift system of the Shanghai factory, Tesla will adopt a one-shift system after the resumption of work, so the hourly workload will be directly halved, from the previous 80 ~ 85JPH to 40 ~ 45JPH, according to this calculation, the current parts inventory of the Shanghai factory is only supported for two and a half weeks, and he expects to return to normal as soon as mid-May.
"It is planned to increase production capacity as soon as possible. The challenges surrounding the supply chain remain, and the team has been grappling with them for more than a year. Tesla said that for the rest of 2022, the factory may continue to operate at a state below capacity. Production speeds at the Berlin and Austin plants will be affected by the introduction of many new products and manufacturing technologies at the new plants, as well as by supply chain-related challenges.
In the face of the shortage of chip supply, Tesla has avoided falling into the same situation as traditional car companies such as Volkswagen and Toyota through research and development of alternative MCU chips and firmware, and strong vertical integration capabilities, and has ensured the scale of delivery. However, "smart women are difficult to cook without rice", the chip usage of smart cars is as high as more than a thousand, and the current automotive semiconductor supply situation has not been significantly alleviated, and Tesla is also facing challenges.
Still, on the company's earnings call, Musk and Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn said "the company remains confident of achieving at least a 50 percent increase in deliveries from a 2021 basis."
The price increase takes into account future cost increases
In addition to the shortage of key components, Tesla is also facing the problem of increasing upstream material costs.
"The price of some auto parts increased by 20%-30% year-on-year." Musk said on the conference call that Tesla definitely wants to make electric cars as cheap as possible, but unfortunately, pricing can be a challenge in the face of changing macroeconomic conditions.
Affected by the continuous rise in crude oil prices and market speculation, the prices of traditional metals and new energy metals involved in the automobile industry have risen wildly. Guotai Junan Futures Research Report pointed out that "the bulk raw materials involved in the production of new energy vehicles have risen to varying degrees, of which the prices of lithium and nickel have risen significantly." From January to April 2022, lithium carbonate rose by 78%, nickel beans rose by 54%, and prices of cobalt, copper, aluminum and steel rose by 15%, 8%, 8% and 8% respectively. The metal cost marginal increase of each new energy vehicle was 17,000 yuan, an increase of 42%."
In this context, since March, Tesla has raised prices three times a week in the domestic market, and has raised prices three times in a month in the US market. In this regard, Musk said on the call that in terms of price increases, considering that Tesla's earnings hit a record high this quarter, the price increase seems unreasonable. However, our car purchase list is very long, and the list of some models has even been scheduled until next year. Therefore, the pricing we are currently offering has actually taken into account the possible supplier cost and logistics cost increases in the next 6 to 12 months, and the cost increases are almost inevitable.
In addition to price increases, industrial chain enterprises that are unwilling to passively accept the price increase of upstream raw materials have other actions. Among them, BYD continues to plan to invest in upstream material suppliers such as Shengxin Lithium Energy and Shanshan Lithium Battery during the year, and at the same time, enterprises such as Ningde Times and Ganfeng Lithium have also opened the pace of overseas mining.
Tesla, which has been "buying mines" overseas before, has other intentions, and recently, Musk wrote on Twitter, "Lithium prices have reached a crazy level." Unless it chooses to increase the cost of procurement, Tesla may have to directly enter the mining and refining field on a large scale. ”
However, in the case of reduced downstream demand and increased upstream production, the current price of lithium materials has declined. However, for the future trend of lithium carbonate and other prices, a lithium battery material supplier insider told Times Finance, "The price of lithium concentrate in overseas auctions has come up, and the equivalent cost is more than 300,000 yuan (RMB), so it is difficult for lithium carbonate prices to be significantly reduced, and when the epidemic resumes, the price should stop falling and rebound." At present, supply and demand are still very tight, and it is expected that the balance will need to be after mid-2023, during which the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate will continue to be high."