The Americans are wrong, the real overcapacity is Tesla, and Musk is forced to play the trump card of ballasting

Tang Yinghu

2024-05-13 10:56Posted in Hainan military field creators

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen always says that China has overcapacity for new energy. But in fact, it is Tesla that is really overcapacity.

Tesla's Berlin factory has a maximum annual production capacity of 1 million vehicles, the Shanghai factory also has a production capacity of 1 million vehicles, the Austin factory in Texas has a production capacity of 2 million vehicles, and the Fremont factory in California has a 600,000 plant.

Because Tesla's total global sales in 2023 will only be 1.81 million units. Theoretically, one factory in Shanghai and one factory in Berlin would be enough, and Tesla factories in the United States could be closed.

Tesla's total global sales in 2023 will be 1.81 million units, far lower than the total production capacity of nearly 5 million units. The capacity utilization rate is less than 40%, which is well below the red line of 70% normal utilization. For example, the Shanghai factory has been suspended many times due to overcapacity.

Tesla, once hailed as the leader of the electric vehicle revolution, is facing an unprecedented overcapacity problem, which reflects the dual challenges of the new normal of the global electric vehicle market and Tesla's strategic positioning.

You must know that when Tesla's sales were only 1/10 of Toyota, investors once gave Toyota's valuation 4 times. Because Musk and investors believe that Tesla can become the leader of the global car market in the future.

Then, annual sales of 10 million can only be regarded as a small goal for Tesla. Tesla has designed the layout of seven factories around the world for this purpose, and the capacity plan is undoubtedly ambitious.

In particular, the Shanghai Gigafactory is known as the jewel of Tesla's global network with its efficient production capacity, thanks in large part to the innovation and diligence of the Chinese team.

However, Tesla's total global sales in 2023 will only be 1.81 million units, and it has been negative recently. Against this backdrop, Tesla's future is particularly complex and uncertain.

Of course, Tesla still has a few cards in his hand. No, Musk played all the two hole cards of Model 2 and full self-driving.

The Model 2, priced at $25,000, or 180,000 yuan, has long been seen as Tesla's ultimate plan, a key step in broadening its market base, expanding its market share, and attracting a wider consumer base.

But at the beginning of April this year, the media reported that Musk had already decided to abandon the Model 2 plan at the end of February this year.

Because the Model 2 is completely uncompetitive in the face of similar models in China, it cannot open the mass market. However, Musk denied the matter.

On April 24, Musk announced a poor first-quarter earnings report, while reiterating the Model 2 plan, which will be launched by the end of next year. Investors have recognized this, and Tesla's stock price has climbed rapidly from 144 yuan to 164 yuan, still significantly ahead of Toyota.

However, Tesla is facing two major problems: First, the growth rate of the overseas electric vehicle market is slowing down. Second, competitors from China are getting stronger and stronger.

The rise of Chinese brands has not only posed a challenge in terms of price, but also shown strong strength in technological innovation and market adaptability.

By the end of next year, it is difficult to say what kind of product power Tesla Model 2 will have, what kind of price it will set in China, how competitive it will be, and whether it can become a hit.

Tesla needs to find a precise positioning in the Chinese market, leverage its brand and technology advantages, and deeply integrate with its localization strategy, respond to challenges with innovation, and rekindle the market's enthusiasm.

Although Musk is known for his multi-faceted entrepreneurial spirit, from Starlink to Twitter to SpaceX, it is undeniable that Tesla remains the cornerstone of his business empire.

In the context of global market volatility and intensified competition, how to find Tesla's positioning and maintain its core competitiveness has become an urgent problem to be solved.

All in all, Tesla's future lies in how to improve product strength, balance production capacity and demand, innovate and change in the Chinese and global markets, and maintain its vitality and leadership as a core business of innovation.

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