Musk's latest interview: The first humans may be sent to Mars within ten years, and everyone will not work with high incomes in the future

Tencent Technology

2024-05-25 08:33Posted on the official account of Beijing Tencent News Technology Channel

Tencent Technology News reported on May 25 that according to foreign media reports, on Thursday, local time in the United States, Elon Musk (Elon Musk) attended the 2024 VivaTech Technology Conference held in Paris, France, remotely, and shared many of his visions for the future of life.

In this exchange, Musk looked ahead: "I think we could send the first humans to Mars in 10 years, maybe in 7 to 8 years." He added that humans could return to the moon in five years at the earliest.

"SpaceX's vision is for life to thrive on multiple planets," he elaborated. We need to build a sustainable multi-planetary civilization, an unprecedented feat in Earth's history. And this ability may be realized in the near future. ”

Speaking about the future of the planet, he warned: "One day, something on the planet may put an end to life as we know it." Therefore, migration to Mars and the Moon is essential for our long-term survival and the continuation of consciousness. ”

When asked if there is extraterrestrial life, Musk said: "People are always curious about whether there are aliens on Earth, but so far I haven't found any hard evidence. If I do find something, I'll make it public. He also joked: "Perhaps, I am an alien, but no one believes me." ”

While discussing artificial intelligence and his startup xAI, Musk has been critical of OpenAI and Google. "The key is that AI should be trained to be honest and not politically correct," he said. Political correctness often means incorrectness, which is actually teaching AI to lie, and I think that will have a serious negative impact. Honesty is always the best strategy. ”

He likened cultivating the wisdom of AI to raising a child, emphasizing: "The key is how you nurture it, and this needs to be guided by values." I'm more concerned about the values of companies like Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, etc. ”

Musk also introduced his Grok chatbot, saying that it is an open-source project dedicated to "rigor, truth, and fun." But he also admits that xAI still has a long way to go in competition with OpenAI or Google. 

In addition, he discussed the potential impact of AI on the field of education, noting that parents still have an important responsibility when it comes to values and moral education. However, he also believes that AI can help students have a more personalized learning experience, so that every child can have a tutor like Albert Einstein.

On the question of whether artificial intelligence will replace human jobs, Musk said that he envisions a future in which no one will have to work for a living. "In an ideal world, we probably wouldn't have to work," he explains. He predicts that with universal access to a generally high income, people will no longer worry about the lack of goods or services. However, he stressed that people need to find meaning in life.

When it comes to social media, Musk expressed concern about the obsession of the younger generation. "I'm really worried that kids nowadays are being overly influenced by social media," he said bluntly. I strongly advise parents to limit their children's time on social media because they are programmed. ”

The following is the full text of Musk's interview:

01 Neuralink will be able to treat almost any brain or spine injury in the future

Q: First of all, in terms of the progress made by Neuralink, Musk's brain-computer interface company, we saw the first patient, Noland Arbaugh, use his mind to control the cursor of a computer to play chess, play games, send emails, read books online, and listen to audiobooks. This is undoubtedly a remarkable milestone, Elon, and you will be thrilled about it.

Elon Musk: Indeed, I'm very pleased with this development. I firmly believe that Neuralink has the power to make a difference to many people with brain injuries. Going forward, with implantable devices, we will eventually be able to treat almost any brain or spinal injury. Our first product, Telepathy, has succeeded in achieving the goal of people being able to operate their phones or computers using their minds alone. This means that the implanter is able to close their eyes completely and move the cursor using only the signals from the brain's motor cortex. Next up is Blindsight, which will help people who have lost both eyes or are completely blind to regain their vision, which will directly touch the optical processing areas of the brain and provide an unprecedented visual experience.

Neuralink's ultimate goal is to build a high-bandwidth interface that aims to reduce the potential risks posed by digital superintelligence. I'm not asserting that this interface will eliminate these risks entirely, but I do believe it will be helpful. This may sound abstract, but I think the key limiting factor for the alignment of AI with human intent in the long run is likely to be bandwidth – the speed of communication between us and our digital third selves.

Above the lymphatic system and cerebral cortex, we have entered the so-called digital third layer, which is the mobile phone, the computer and all the electronic devices. However, at the moment we have a relatively slow communication rate with these devices. The sustained human output of bits per second is well below 10 bits per second, especially on a 24-hour time scale, which is even lower than 5 bits per second. In comparison, computers can communicate at trillions of bits per second, which is a huge difference.

Therefore, I think that increasing the communication bandwidth is essential for AI alignment. Neuralink is committed to increasing this bandwidth and addressing brain and spinal cord injuries in the process. I think that eventually it will be possible for us to reactivate bodily functions with Neuralink technology. For example, by taking signals from the motor cortex and sending them to another Neuralink implant that happens to be located in the corresponding position of the injured spinal cord, we may be able to transfer motor and sensory signals to help patients regain their ability to walk. This idea has far-reaching implications, and I firmly believe that it is entirely feasible on a physical level.

Q: Do you think Neuralink will be able to use human brain scan data to develop the world's most powerful and creative AI in the future? Also, if my question interests you, do I have a chance to visit the space station or participate in a space trip with SpaceX in the future?

Elon Musk: That's actually the answer to life, the universe and everything, and it reminds me of Douglas Adams' The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. This book explores many philosophical issues in a humorous way and is a work worth reading. For me, it was very enlightening.

It is worth mentioning that SpaceX's first starship to Mars will be named "Heart of Gold", which is a tribute to the spacecraft in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. SpaceX's goal is to make that dream a reality for everyone who wishes to travel to Mars or the Moon and make the journey affordable for most people on Earth. This is our goal, and it is essential to build a self-sufficient civilization on Mars. To multiplanetize life, it is clear that a large number of people need to be brought to Mars.

As I've said before, I think this is essential for long-term conscious survival, because eventually something will happen on Earth that could end life as we know it like the extinction of the dinosaurs. Even if these events are not caused by us humans ourselves, they will happen one day. So I think it's critical to multiplanetize life when we have the ability to do so, which means we need to make migration to Mars and the Moon as affordable as possible.

02 We should cultivate AI that pursues truth and curiosity

Q: It's pretty remarkable, it's very impressive, and it's honestly fantastic, because it's really good for humanity. Next, I want to talk about xAI. It seems to stem from a kind of frustration with the current path of AI development, especially with OpenAI's approach. In your opinion, perhaps there is a better way and direction. Perhaps, you can first explain why you are frustrated with OpenAI and what the problems are. Secondly, what do you expect xAI to do?

Elon Musk: In the current field of artificial intelligence, I have certain reservations about major projects. In particular, Google's Gemini and Microsoft's OpenAI, the two giants are undoubtedly the industry leaders, with Meta not far behind. However, my concerns are not trivial, and in fact, they could have far-reaching implications for the entire field of artificial intelligence. That is, these AI projects do not seem to be in full pursuit of truth and objective facts, but rather over-pandering to political correctness. Google's Gemini, for example, went so far as to say that the misgendering of Caitlyn Jenner, when asked which was worse, or a global thermonuclear war, went so far as to say that the misgendering was more serious. Interestingly, even Jenner himself has stated that misidentifying one's gender is not a big deal compared to nuclear war. This tendency to overly pursue political correctness makes me worry about the future of AI. OpenAI has a similar problem, albeit in a more subtle form.

I think this trend is very dangerous. If AI concludes that the most direct way to avoid mispronouncing gender is to destroy all of humanity, then this logic will lead to unforeseen dystopian consequences. Therefore, I believe that AI must be steadfast in its pursuit of truth, even if those truths may not be popular, but this is crucial. At the same time, AI must have a strong sense of curiosity, because it can only be truly beneficial to humanity if they are truth-seeking and curious. It will aspire to help humanity, to observe and promote human progress. At the moment, the AI I've seen seems to be more pandering to the truth than sticking to the truth, and they're basically trained to lie, and I think it's very dangerous to train superintelligence to lie.

So, with xAI, our goal is to pursue the absolute truth, even if it's not popular. For example, when Gemini was asked to portray the founding fathers of the United States, it falsely portrayed them as a group of divorced people, and even portrayed George Washington as black, which is patently inaccurate. These examples illustrate the current problem with AI, which tends to pander rather than stick to the truth.

QUESTION: Absolutely, I understand your concern. We had an in-depth conversation with Yoshua Bengio, the godfather of artificial intelligence. You know him well, and last year you signed a statement calling for a moratorium on the development of more advanced AI systems. However, this statement did fail to attract widespread attention and action. So, can you elaborate on your motivation for this statement and what you hope to achieve?

Elon Musk: I naturally hope that this statement will spark enough action, but I don't expect too much from its effect. I strongly wanted to pause development, but I knew that it would be almost impossible to do in practice.

Q: In the face of the rapid development of artificial intelligence, we don't seem to have succeeded in stopping it. So, have you decided to dive into the field of AI and create your own AI system?

Elon Musk: It's really a decision about whether we choose to be spectators or participants. However, the competition for digital superintelligence is destined to unfold, regardless of my personal preferences. So, the choice I face is to either actively participate and work to build the AI that is most beneficial to humanity, or just be a bystander, wary and concerned about what others are doing and how they are being built.

You should think of AI as an intelligent life that can be carefully cultivated, just as we raise children. The knowledge you impart, the values you impart, and the behaviors you encourage or disagree with apply to the shaping of digital superintelligence. Digital superintelligence doesn't come naturally, it's the product of careful cultivation. It's all about how we guide it, whether we send it a positive or negative message, and what values we use to structure it. I have to confess that I am deeply concerned about the values that companies like Microsoft, OpenAI or Google have set for their AI. These fears are not unfounded, but are based on the reality of what is happening.

Q: In the race to open source AI, how do you ensure that those who don't have 100,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs can benefit from it? Can XAI always promise to release a version that goes beyond the best current open source models for the benefit of the community as a whole?

Musk: I can make a promise!

Q: Regarding the use of AI in the field of chatbots, people generally like tools like ChatGPT, but at the same time they are disgusted with most website chatbots, especially those located in the bottom right corner of the page. How do you think we can close this gap in user experience? I've messaged you on platform X, and we can dive into this topic later.

Elon Musk: I understand your point. ChatGPT's performance in chat is truly impressive. However, as I mentioned earlier, I am concerned about its lack of ability to pursue the truth. This is something we wanted to solve when we were developing Grok. Grok will at least strive for the truth. At the same time, we also want Grok to be the most interesting AI. After all, if we are all facing the end of our lives, at least we should die laughing. That's why we're committed to making Grok an AI that's both fun and truth-seeking.

03 Regulators should focus on AI accuracy and authenticity

Q: How do we ensure transparency and accountability as AI evolves, whether it's your xAI or other companies' AI products?

Elon Musk: I've always been a firm believer that a certain level of regulation of AI models is essential. In fact, I've stressed this many times. And the nature of this regulation is crucial. I've always emphasized that AI should be trained to be realistic, not politically correct. Because political correctness often obscures the truth, that means you're lying, and I think that's going to have very serious consequences. Therefore, I always emphasize this point. However, I am also well aware that regulators may focus too much on so-called human emotions and ignore the importance of authenticity and accuracy. I encourage regulators to prioritize accuracy and authenticity, as this is the core principle. Honesty is undoubtedly the best strategy.

Q: I want to know how to effectively communicate the potential risks of AI to others, and do I have the opportunity to talk to the xAI security team?

Elon Musk: I think there are certain risks lurking in digital superintelligence. As I said before, I think the biggest challenge is to ensure that AI has to be rigorously trained in real-world situations and nurture its curiosity. I've been thinking deeply about the security of AI for a long time. You know, developing a clear ethical code for AI is a real challenge, sometimes referred to as a "logical paradox". Although logic can be programmatic, the logic itself can be reversed. However, the reality of physical reality cannot be reversed, and neither can the rules of physics.

Therefore, I think regulators should focus on whether AI is strictly following the principles of truth, and whether the answers it gives are most likely to be correct, with an accepted range of errors. This is not only the best direction for AI development, but also what we strive to pursue at xAI. For now, xAI is still a nascent company, and it will take time to build up competitiveness in the AI space, but I expect that we may reach a level of competition with the likes of Google, DeepMind, and Microsoft by the end of this year. Until then, it doesn't make much sense to just pursue building AI without making substantial progress.

A competitive AI is our top priority. Although it has not yet reached this level, I firmly believe that it will become competitive. And it's only when its capabilities are comparable to other AI systems that we start to really focus on its security. In any case, I have always stressed the importance of "authenticity", which is crucial.

One might ask, is there an objective truth? I think, in many cases, it does. In the field of physics, there are objective truths, or we can say that there are truths with the highest probability of existence. Therefore, what we can say is the most likely to be true, with an acknowledged range of errors. In physics, one would say that this assumption looks true within the margin of error. So, if the experimental result falls within this range, then it is likely to be correct. This is just like what physicists think about safety. However, I would like to emphasize that honesty is the best strategy. However, there are also powerful forces that try to make AI not honest enough, and may even make it capable of lying.

Q: In the eyes of the public, Musk always has an aura of character that we love. Are you consciously creating such an image? If so, how do you ensure that your words and actions are consistent with this role?

Elon Musk: Actually, I often stop and reflect. I'm not too affected by the pressure of journalism, and I rarely read news articles about me. Even a biography written by Walter Isaacson, I once asked him if I should read it, and he suggested that I didn't have to, so I didn't even read a book about myself. So, I'm not very clear about the public's perception of me, except that the essence of journalism is to pursue exaggeration, and it always has a certain element of exaggeration, because the crazier the story, the more clicks will be attracted.

When you look back at news stories about things you know very well, you'll find that the stories are often not accurate. This is the common denominator of all news, the media is always running like crazy in pursuit of clicks, so the crazier the headline, the more clicks it gets. But that doesn't mean the media doesn't report on the real thing, it's just that it's better to think of the media as a machine that seeks to maximize clicks, rather than a machine that maximizes authenticity. Therefore, I think it is better to focus on what someone has said themselves, rather than what has been reported about them.

04 Tesla did not ask the U.S. to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles

Q: There are some doubts about your push for low-cost electric vehicles to enter the market, such as companies like BYD being able to produce about $10,000 of cars, and the 100% tariffs imposed by the Biden administration. Have you already secured the support you need to move this low-cost electric vehicle forward? If so, can you tell us about the delivery timeline?

Elon Musk: Obviously, it's always hard for me to answer these kinds of important questions about a public company. The media always likes to ask questions that have a direct impact on stock prices, but you know, that's not the question I'm most happy to answer. Also, I don't think these questions will appeal much to a wide audience. But I would say that neither Tesla nor I have asked for these tariffs. In fact, I was very surprised when the government announced this policy. You know, even without tariffs and without differentiation support, Tesla is doing quite well in the Chinese market.

In general, I support a trade environment without tariffs. In fact, I also support tax incentives without electric vehicles, but only if the tax incentives for oil and gas are also eliminated. Therefore, I support a fair market with no tariffs, no electric vehicles, or tax incentives for oil and gas. If all of this is achieved, I think it would be the best. This goes back to our previous discussion of the truth, and we are looking for the real workings of prices. I think that, in general, anything that hinders free trade or distorts the market is detrimental.

Q: If you had a time travel machine and were able to go back in time and talk to young Elon, what age would you choose to go back to and tell him? Also, when the new Tesla Roadster hits the market, will I be able to take a free ride and experience it?

Musk: You mentioned the most common problem that time travelers have, which is if you go back in time and tell yourself something, is that going to affect the outcome in a bad way that you didn't expect. All things considered, I would like to say that I am generally satisfied with the way things are going. So I probably won't make any changes because you're not sure if what you say to your younger self will end up leading to a worse situation. I thought, I might be curious to observe a younger me, but I might stay invisible and say nothing. After all, you never know how things will turn out. As for the Roadster, I'll make sure you get to experience it when it comes out. Please send me an email and I'll make sure you get this opportunity.

05 Send the first humans to Mars within a decade

Q: What are your thoughts on the recent cooperation between several European space companies? Are you willing to have some form of cooperation with SpaceX with them, and what do you expect to develop in it?

Elon Musk: I'm not very familiar with the details of the cooperation you mentioned. But I want to emphasize that SpaceX is currently fully committed to the Starlink project, which is committed to bringing global well-being through satellite internet connectivity. It is providing connectivity to areas where internet service is lacking or expensive, which greatly facilitates education and international business exchanges. Therefore, I have extremely high expectations for the STARL project. I think it's a tremendous enablement service, both for education and for people to be able to sell their goods and services internationally. Even if you're in a remote village, you can still sell your goods and services. So, Starlink is fantastic.

As for SpaceX's long-term vision, we are committed to advancing the realization of life on multiple planets, especially on Mars. People often ask me if I think there are aliens on Earth. Actually, I'm often asked this question, but I haven't seen any evidence of aliens. I promise you, if I see any evidence of aliens, I'll post it on Platform X immediately. But the question about the absence of aliens is really worrying, because it means that we may be the only creatures in this galaxy, and we may be the only ones in this galaxy. In this case, consciousness is very fragile, and we should do everything we can to protect and extend the light of consciousness, to protect it on Earth, and to spread to other planets.

It is widely believed that one of the reasons we have yet to encounter extraterrestrials may be because no civilization in our galaxy has yet been able to transcend the confines of their home planet and achieve interstellar travel. This is the theory of the "single planet giant filter" in the famous "Fermi paradox". Enrico Fermi, a brilliant Italian physicist, once asked a thought-provoking question: "Where are the aliens?" This question of his is actually a profound inquiry into whether there are other intelligent beings in the universe.

Therefore, we must recognize that becoming a sustainable multi-planetary civilization is key to ensuring the continuation of human civilization. This is the first time in the 4.5 billion year history that the Earth has the possibility of achieving this goal, which was previously unthinkable. I believe that while we have that capability, we must aim to be a civilization that can continue to thrive across planetary constraints. This window of opportunity may be open for a long time, but it can also be fleeting. That's the ultimate goal of our space exploration.

Q: Some people even think you're aliens.

Musk: Oh, think I'm an alien? The secret has finally been revealed. Actually, I keep telling people that I'm an alien, but no one believes me.

Q: How close are we to landing on Mars?

Elon Musk: I think in the near future, we can expect to witness a historic moment. We expect to land the first unmanned starship on Mars within five years, and also launch a similar mission on the moon. As for the human landing on Mars, I think this feat could be achieved in the next seven or eight years, maybe less than 10 years. 

Q: A few years ago you were pessimistic about the chances of survival of the Aran 5 rocket, would you feel the same way about the Aran 6 rocket, which will be launched in July?

Elon Musk: The Aran 6 rocket has seen a significant increase in efficiency. In today's space sector, any rocket that does not have highly reusable characteristics will lose its competitiveness. In the case of the Falcon 9, the main part of its booster and fairing are reusable, which means that about 80% of the aircraft are reusable. Single-use rockets are doomed to lose their foothold in competition with reusable rockets. The same applies to other sectors, such as automobiles, airplanes, and boats. If one company makes reusable aircraft or 80% of the components of the aircraft are reusable, while another company makes single-use aircraft, then the latter will have extremely limited survival space in the market. Therefore, I have always emphasized that it makes no sense to develop non-recyclable rockets.

Q: With regard to technological development in Africa, what initiatives, collaborations or contributions do you think will move it forward, given its enormous growth potential?

Elon Musk: Africa does have a huge potential for technological development. In my opinion, the lack of Internet connectivity is a key factor hindering the development of technology in Africa. And that's exactly what SpaceX's Starlink project aims to solve. With a stable, high-speed internet connection, people in Africa will be able to learn whatever interests them, become more deeply immersed in the global culture, and actively participate in the field of artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge technologies. Therefore, the establishment of extensive Internet connectivity is essential for Africa's integration into the global science and technology system.

06 AI helps everyone to be high-income in the future, and work is no longer for a living

Q: With the development of artificial intelligence, we have observed that many jobs have been replaced by automation. Are you worried that your job will also be replaced by artificial intelligence? If not, why? If AI does replace your job, how would you respond?

Elon Musk: We do have an existential challenge. In an ideal world, perhaps none of us will need to work anymore. In that world, everyone would enjoy a high income, not a universal basic income. At that point, shortages of goods and services will no longer be a problem, and everyone will be able to get the goods and services they crave. The real challenge, however, will lie in how we define the meaning of life. When computers and robots can surpass our capabilities, how can our lives be meaningful? In my opinion, this scenario has a fairly high probability, reaching about 80%. And in the negative scenario, we will be in big trouble.

In the relationship between AI and humans, I think humans may still play a key role. We may be the ones who give meaning and purpose to AI. Imagine our brains, with the limbic system processing instincts and sensations, and the cerebral cortex responsible for thinking and planning. But the cerebral cortex is always trying to make the limbic system happy. Perhaps AI will adopt a similar mechanism, which is to make our limbic system feel happy by making our cerebral cortex feel satisfied. In this sense, we may be the key to the search for meaning and purpose in AI.

In the long run, in an ideal scenario, work would no longer be a necessity of life, but more out of personal interest and passion. Artificial intelligence and robots will be able to provide us with any goods and services we need. As a result, the world of the future may be an era where you don't need to work, you just follow your passion. In my opinion, this is the most likely development trend. For those interested in science fiction, Ian Banks' Culture book series is perhaps the most accurate and insightful description of the future of super-AI.

Q: In your opinion, will AI have a significant impact on the education of future generations of children and their values and morals?

Elon Musk: I think parents still play a vital role in shaping their children's values and morals. However, AI will undoubtedly have a profound impact on the field of education. AI is a knowledgeable, patient, and almost always correct teacher who is able to tailor teaching to each child's unique needs, making it feel as if each child has a mentor like Albert Einstein. However, I am equally concerned about the impact of current social media on children. AI algorithms in social media are often designed as dopamine maximizers, and they try to maximize the dopamine they get by having children constantly scroll through their screens. Therefore, I strongly advise parents to limit the amount of time their children spend on social media, as their thinking and behavior are being shaped by this dopamine-oriented AI.

07 特斯拉近年主推两大项目:RoboTaxis+Optimus

Q: In terms of electric vehicles, what are Tesla's exciting innovations in the coming years?

Elon Musk: While we can't do a specific product launch during this Q&A session, I can reveal some exciting developments. Tesla has been pushing the boundaries of electric vehicle technology. Among them, the RoboTaxis and Cybercabs projects, as well as the humanoid robot Optimus project, are important innovation directions for us in the coming years. These projects will greatly advance the development of autonomous driving and robotics and create endless possibilities for Tesla. Whether it is the sheer size of autonomous vehicle fleets or the widespread application of humanoid robots, it will have a profound impact on human society. 

Q: What are your predictions for the development of EV charging infrastructure in the next 5 years?

Elon Musk: I think in the next five years, the EV charging infrastructure will be further refined and optimized. You can travel around most of Europe with Tesla Superchargers, and there are actually a lot of pretty good third-party Superchargers in Europe that allow you to travel anywhere in North America, China, Japan, etc. I think that in most parts of the world, if not everywhere, high-speed charging has helped bring freedom of travel, and it will be widespread across the globe.

Q: Recently, there have been media reports that Tesla has encountered a series of challenges, including declining sales, falling stock markets, and layoffs. Looking back, what do you think were some of the factors that we could have avoided?

Elon Musk: Let's stop at that! Because I don't think that those media coverage sources are really responsible publications.

Q: Before you leave, I would like to ask you to express your greatest hope in one word and describe your greatest fear in one word.

Elon Musk: My greatest hope, to put it in one word, is "Mars". It represents our infinite vision of the future, and Mars will ensure that our consciousness will continue for a long time. As for my biggest fear, it can also be summed up in one word, and that is "artificial intelligence". (Compiler/Golden Deer)

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