The sky-high annual salary of $56 billion was approved! Musk: Humanoid robots will create a $30 trillion market for Tesla

Time Weekly

2024-06-14 22:18Published on the official account of Guangdong Times Weekly

Source of this article: Times Weekly Author: Wang He

"Today's Tesla is not opening a new chapter, but a 'new book'." At the 2024 Tesla shareholders' meeting on June 14, Beijing time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk (Elon Musk) danced on the stage and happily announced the news.

What makes Musk so happy is that he gets a sky-high annual salary of $56 billion (about 406 billion yuan) as he wishes, and Tesla's registered address will also be moved to Texas.

Musk is not limited to excitement, he said that Tesla has made great progress in comprehensively promoting electrification, artificial intelligence, energy storage business, and the deployment of sustainable energy sources such as solar energy. Tesla is doing something that is understood by a few people, but not by the majority of the world.

Tesla Semi has already started large-scale production. Compared to diesel trucks, the Semi has lower transportation costs. For companies in the transportation industry, if they want to make money, they should use the Semi fleet and abandon diesel trucks. Tesla Semi's contribution to profitability will far exceed market expectations.

Tesla's business in the field of energy storage is also growing rapidly, with an annual growth rate of 200% to 300%. Tesla's Powerwall 3 and Megapack are leading the revolution in energy storage technology. Megapack has iterated to its second generation (Megapack 2) and is moving to the next level, with the upcoming Megapack 3 being more deeply integrated into power electronics and simplifying the complexity of substations.

However, more important to Musk than the company's profitability is that Tesla has made important progress in humanoid robots and FSD (Full Self-Driving Capability).

Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told the Times that Tesla's shift of focus to humanoid robots and FSD is based on in-depth insight into future technology trends. Humanoid robots and autonomous driving technology represent an important direction for the development of science and technology in the future, with huge market potential and commercial value. Secondly, Tesla has accumulated rich technical experience in the field of electric vehicles, which can provide strong support for the research and development of humanoid robots and FSD. In addition, Tesla may also see the wide application prospects of humanoid robots and FSD in the future in the fields of mobility and logistics, so it chooses to shift its focus to these two fields to seek more development opportunities.

Source: Tesla

Humanoid robots bring Tesla a $30 trillion market

"Tesla has made tremendous progress in robotics, from the beginning when someone pretended to dance in a robot costume, to today when robots are actually performing tasks in factories." Musk said that at the current Fremont factory, 2 robots are responsible for removing battery cells from the end of the production line and placing them in shipping containers.

Tesla said that humanoid robots will enter our lives. It can be a family's right-hand man, such as taking care of children, becoming an intelligent teacher to educate the next generation, and can also do a variety of jobs in a factory, and the next generation of Optimus humanoid robots can even play the piano.

Humanoid robots will also become the main force of industry, and the number is expected to surpass that of humans, which is expected to reach 10 billion to 20 billion. Tesla aims to produce 1 billion units per year, accounting for more than 10% of the market. Its cost is controlled at about $10,000, and the price is expected to be $20,000, which will bring Tesla a $25 trillion-30 trillion market.

Tesla's factories are expected to deploy more than a thousand, if not thousands, of humanoid robots by 2025. These robots will enable a higher level of autonomous operation, able to respond directly to instructions and perform complex tasks. What's even more exciting is that they will have the ability to learn new skills by watching videos. Simply put, show a robot a task and it can learn and execute it by watching it, without the need for traditional programming.

Musk pointed out that in the future, Tesla will mass-produce Optimus for $10,000 and sell it for about $20,000, which will be cheaper than cars.

Tesla's large-scale deployment of humanoid robots may promote the industrialization process of humanoid robots at home and abroad, and will also have an important impact on the domestic and foreign automobile markets.

In Jiang Han's view, this plan will undoubtedly attract widespread attention from the market. Secondly, this plan is likely to accelerate the industrialization process of humanoid robots at home and abroad. Because with the participation of large enterprises such as Tesla, humanoid robot technology will receive more R&D and financial support to promote the development of the entire industrial chain. In addition, for the domestic and foreign automotive markets, this plan may have a series of implications.

"On the one hand, the popularity of humanoid robots may change the way consumers travel, impacting the short-distance travel market. On the other hand, the production of humanoid robots may share some parts and technologies with the automotive industry, promoting the integration and development of the two. Jiang Han said.

At present, Tesla is introducing efficient reasoning computer technology into electric vehicles, and will further apply it in future humanoid robot projects. Combined with Tesla's artificial intelligence technology in the real world, Tesla has the foundation to build advanced robots.

It must be emphasized that to create a truly competitive robot, strong AI, computing power, and manufacturing processes are required.

To achieve this, Tesla must do a better job of both design and manufacturing. Tesla's goal is to make the cost of robots significantly lower, from hundreds of thousands of dollars to $10,000 or two, so that they have lower payment costs and become more popular. This requires constant innovation in manufacturing to ensure quality and efficiency while significantly reducing costs.

FSD landed in China or accelerated

"It is recommended that everyone take the FSD V12 for a test drive. Each version of FSD is improving at an exponential rate, culminating in unsupervised and fully autonomous driving. Musk said there is no doubt that FSD will be far safer than human driving.

In 2024, Tesla's FSD will have a cumulative mileage of more than 1 billion miles (about 1.6 billion kilometers). FSD (supervised) using end-to-end neural networks to push to customers in the US and Canada.

Musk said that Tesla, which is equipped with FSD's full self-driving capability, will be able to "run out and make money on its own" when it is idle, and this will soon be realized. The revenue generated for the owner will be much higher than the monthly cost of using the car. Perhaps with an OTA software upgrade, millions of autonomous vehicles could be owned overnight, with 50 or 60 hours of use per week.

Jiang Han believes that this shows Tesla's confidence and expectation in the future of autonomous driving technology. If this prediction comes true, it will have a profound impact on the domestic and foreign automobile and ride-hailing markets.

More importantly, if Tesla, which is equipped with FSD, can realize the function of making money independently, or subvert the traditional business model of cars and ride-hailing. Car owners can earn additional income when the vehicle is idle by renting out their Tesla vehicles, which will greatly improve the utilization and economy of the vehicle.

According to Jiang Han's analysis, this trend may accelerate the implementation of FSD in the Chinese market. This is because China is one of the world's largest automotive markets and an important development area for autonomous driving technology.

Entering 2024, the process of Tesla's FSD landing in China is accelerating. In April, according to CCTV news, at the invitation of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, on the afternoon of April 28, Musk arrived in Beijing. In the same month, Tesla's official Weibo issued two statements, mentioning the acceleration of the implementation of autonomous driving technology. In June, Baidu Maps released a video of Tesla's actual V20 version and announced that "Baidu Maps lane-level navigation will soon be launched on Tesla". In the same month, Lu Sen, director of the Data Division of the Management Committee of the Lingang New Area of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, revealed that Nanhui New Town is promoting 10 Tesla vehicles to carry out FSD landing pilots.

"If Tesla's FSD technology can be widely used and recognized in the Chinese market, then it will help promote the overall development of China's autonomous driving technology." Jiang Han judged.

It is worth noting that the Roadster 2 model, which has attracted much attention in the market, was not mentioned at this shareholders' meeting, and when it comes to new products, Musk said that Tesla is currently working on some new products, and emphasized that these products will be special.

According to the data of the Passenger Association, in May 2024, Tesla's sales will be 72,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%, and in the first five months of this year, the cumulative sales will be about 355,600 units, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%. Globally, Tesla sold 386,800 cars in the first quarter of this year, down 8.5% year-on-year and 20.2% month-on-month.

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