The U.S.-China AI Race: Decide whether you are the best or the best, and whether you want to live or die, in the field of unmanned driving and robotics!

On November 19, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission proposed an AI research and development plan similar to the Manhattan Project, to compete with China's AI. As a result, on November 26, Trump announced plans to appoint an "artificial intelligence secretary" to strengthen the leadership of AI in the United States. Trump's decision will have a direct impact on China.

You must know that artificial intelligence is a cutting-edge technology field that has been fully tackled and developed in China in the past two years, from the national strategic level to the individual enterprise level. After reading this article, you can better understand why we are doing AI for the country.

Trump's rush to set up a special department to coordinate AI affairs before he officially took office can be seen in the importance he attaches to this area. Undoubtedly, this move has also brought the competition between China and the United States in the field of AI to a new height, making it more and more intense.

In Trump's last term, it can be found that he has already shown a strong interest and concern for the artificial intelligence industry.

In 2019, he signed the Executive Order Maintaining U.S. AI Leadership; The following year, the 2020 National Key Technology Strategy was released, which clearly proposed deregulation and vigorously encouraged technological innovation, with the core intention of competing with China in the AI development model.

Reading between the lines of these policy documents, you can deeply feel Trump's high regard for AI; His apparent hostility towards China can also be clearly seen in his series of policy measures.

In fact, not only the United States, but also many countries with certain strength around the world have attached great importance to the development of the AI industry, and have established relevant professional departments to lead the promotion. So why are countries around the world competing to make efforts in the field of AI?

McKinsey has predicted that AI is expected to inject up to $4.4 trillion into the global economy every year.

In this day and age, whoever has a firm grasp of the core power of AI technology has the key to reshaping the world. In the current global competition landscape, the most eye-catching is the fierce competition between China and the United States in this field.

Therefore, for China, the development of the AI industry has reached a critical crossroads. AI capabilities are as important in today's international competitive landscape as national defense. So in the fierce confrontation between China and the United States on AI, which segment is the most fiercely competitive?

I think the two major fields of unmanned driving and robotics are the most tragic, and they are also the areas of AI competition that we must win.

Why countries around the world are focusing on the AI industry: a huge driver of economic growth

One of the reasons behind the development of artificial intelligence in today's world has attracted much attention, and countries around the world have made it a key development area, and one of the reasons behind this is its huge economic growth momentum. McKinsey has predicted that AI is expected to inject up to $4.4 trillion into the global economy every year. This figure is undoubtedly staggering and illustrates the enormous potential of AI in economic development.

In this day and age, whoever has a firm grasp of the core power of AI technology has the key to reshaping the world. Artificial intelligence is not just a technology, it is a force that can change the global economic landscape. It can improve the operational efficiency of the company, provide personalized services and advice to the enterprise, and adapt to a variety of new problems. At the same time, the average annual compound growth rate of the artificial intelligence industry in the past five years has exceeded 20%, and the compound annual growth rate will continue to exceed 20% in the next five years, and the market outlook is bright.

The development of AI can also bring multiple benefits to the global economy. It can improve work efficiency and reduce the error rate in the face of repetitive work; When analyzing large amounts of data, the most useful information can be extracted in a very short time and methods can be automatically summarized. Their ability to learn and explore independently is highly valued. In addition, AI-produced robots can replace a lot of manual labor, reduce business expenses, improve production efficiency, and rarely make mistakes. At the same time, the solutions and methods proposed by artificial intelligence are highly innovative, which can subvert traditional cognition and bring new development opportunities to enterprises and society.

Comparison of the current situation in the field of unmanned driving in China and the United States

(1) The "three majors" pattern of global autonomous driving has emerged

1. U.S. players: Google, Cruise are ahead, and Tesla Robotaxi is about to enter the game. The technical route focuses on software over hardware or hardware over software, and it will impact driverless taxis.

The United States started earlier in the field of autonomous driving, and Google's Waymo has a deep layout in the field of Robotaxi. Waymo focuses on hardware over software, and is committed to realizing autonomous driving through high-performance hardware devices and advanced algorithms. Tesla, on the other hand, focuses on software over hardware, adopts no high-precision map + pure vision solution, and controls the vehicle through neural networks, and its FSD is an "end-to-end" system. Both are targeting the driverless taxi market, and Tesla's Robotaxi service, while not yet officially launched, is already in the spotlight.

Cruise, as the leading unmanned driving company in the United States, is also actively promoting unmanned driving services. Despite being the subject of regulatory investigations for the accident, trust with regulators has been rebuilt, with plans to resume fully driverless service later this year, with charges starting in early 2025.

2. Chinese players: Carrot Run is leading, and car companies, travel platforms, and intelligent driving solution providers are actively deploying. Relying on strong AI technology and autonomous driving R&D capabilities, the technology is developing rapidly.

Domestic Robotaxi companies are mainly divided into two categories: autonomous driving technology companies and traditional manufacturers, and the current progress of technology companies is relatively leading. Technology companies represented by Radish Run, WeRide, and Pony.ai are in a leading position in terms of landing cities and test mileage.

Relying on strong AI technology and autonomous driving R&D capabilities, in May this year, Baidu released the world's first autonomous driving model Apollo ADFM, which supports L4 unmanned driving applications, at Apollo Day, which can take into account the safety and generalization of technology, achieve more than 10 times the safety of human drivers, and achieve city-level global complex scene coverage. At present, the sixth-generation unmanned vehicle has fully applied the "ADFM large model + hardware product + safety architecture", ensuring the stability and reliability of the vehicle through 10-fold safety redundancy and 6-fold MRC safety strategy, and the mass production price is less than $30,000, which is very competitive.

(2) Comparison of unmanned driving technology routes between China and the United States

1. United States: Based on the combination of single-vehicle intelligence and Internet of Vehicles technology, emphasis is placed on the improvement of the perception, decision-making and execution capabilities of autonomous driving systems, as well as the application of Internet of Vehicles technology.

In terms of bicycle intelligence, U.S. companies attach great importance to the improvement of the perception, decision-making and execution capabilities of autonomous driving systems. High-precision sensors, such as lidar, cameras, and millimeter-wave radar, are used to accurately capture information about the vehicle's surroundings, and advanced algorithms and computing platforms are used to process and analyze this data in real time to make the right driving decisions.

In terms of connected vehicles, we aim to achieve seamless connectivity between vehicles and roads, other vehicles, and transportation systems. With connected car technology, vehicles can obtain traffic information, road conditions, and other vehicle dynamics in real time to optimize driving routes and avoid traffic congestion and potential hazards. This technical route emphasizes the autonomy and innovation of technology, and provides a broader application scenario and higher flexibility for driverless cars. However, it also places high demands on infrastructure and laws and regulations.

2. China: Pay attention to the combination of vehicle-road coordination and bicycle intelligence, make full use of the advantages of infrastructure and communication technology, and improve the level of road intelligence and bicycle intelligence capabilities.

In terms of vehicle-road coordination, China is making full use of its advantages in infrastructure and communication technology to improve the intelligence level of road infrastructure. By building intelligent transportation systems and installing intelligent sensors and cameras, vehicles can obtain road information, traffic signals and other vehicle dynamics in real time, and achieve synergy with roads and traffic systems.

In terms of bicycle intelligence, Chinese companies are also continuously improving the perception, decision-making and execution capabilities of autonomous driving systems. Through continuous improvement of algorithms and computing platforms, Chinese companies have achieved remarkable results and launched a number of competitive driverless car products in the market. The advantage of this technical route is that it makes full use of China's advantages in infrastructure and communication technology, and reduces the difficulty and cost of bicycle intelligence. At the same time, through the application of vehicle-road cooperation technology, the safety and reliability of autonomous driving are improved.

China and the United States have their own advantages in the field of unmanned driving, and the competition will be more fierce in the future. China needs to continue to increase investment in the research and development of autonomous driving technology, improve its independent innovation capabilities, and strengthen international cooperation in order to win the autonomous driving race between China and the United States.

Comparison of advantages in the field of robotics between China and the United States

(1) The views of American think tanks

The Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) released "How is China's Innovation Capability in the Robotics Industry?" The report notes that China is not yet leading the way in robotics innovation, but domestic production and adoption are growing rapidly, and the Chinese government has made the industry a priority.

According to the report, while the United States has performed well in robot innovation, it has been very bad in robot production. The U.S. innovates, and other countries produce, which could end up significantly reducing the U.S. ability to innovate. The report recommends that the U.S. Department of Commerce convene a robotics industry advisory group to advise the government on the industry's needs to rebuild the U.S. robotics industry; expanding funding for robotics research, particularly in ARM; developing U.S. companies that can scale robotics; Formulating a tax credit policy for robot factories; All investments or purchases by China in its domestic robotics companies are prohibited.

The report also points out that China still lags short of the West in at least two areas: first, software. Around 80% of the value of robotics today is software, and China still lags behind in terms of industrial software capabilities. This is followed by integrated systems development and robotics-as-a-service as a business model, where China is weaker than Western companies.

(2) The advantages of artificial intelligence development in China and the United States in the field of robotics

1. United States

It has performed well in robot innovation, with advanced software technology and integrated system development capabilities. The scientific research strength and technological innovation in the field of artificial intelligence in the United States are globally recognized, and its universities and research institutions have a long history and deep accumulation in the field of artificial intelligence, which provides strong support for robot innovation.

The United States was the first to develop industrial robots, and has the world's first industrial robot - Unimate. Many U.S. companies, such as ABB, KUKA, FANUC, etc., have become the world's leading manufacturers of industrial robots. These companies have established an extensive sales network around the world, which has promoted the wide application of industrial robots in various industries.

In the development of humanoid robots in the United States, Finger is responsible for the R&D and manufacturing of the robot body, OpenAI is responsible for the development of the robot's intelligent brain, and Amazon provides a collaborative combination of logistics scenarios, with the whole chain of humanoid robots from development to application.

Tesla's Optimus robot debuted at Tesla's AI Day on October 1, 2022, showing videos of humanoid robots carrying cars, watering plants, and moving metal rods in a car factory.

Optimus 2023 Progress: On May 16, Musk said that Optimus Prime will be able to run on Tesla's advanced driver assistance system software and computers in the future to perform repetitive tasks. On July 20, five Optimus robots were showcased and said they would continue to increase production numbers in the future. On September 24, its official account posted a video saying that Optimus Prime was able to classify objects and perform simple yoga poses using only vision. In December, the second generation of Optimus Prime was released, with a 30% increase in walking speed and improved balance and body control.

Optimus 2024 update: In May, a video of the latest progress of the humanoid robot Optimus Prime was released, showing its ability to sort batteries, walk, and perform factory tasks, and said that Optimus Prime's hands will have 22 degrees of freedom later that year, up from the current 11 degrees of freedom. In June, Musk announced that Tesla plans to start selling Optimus Prime robots in 2025 and provide rental services, and it is expected that more than 1,000 Optimus Prime robots will be used in Tesla factories in 2025. From July 4th to 7th, the second-generation humanoid robot Optimus was unveiled at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference. On October 11, at Tesla's "We, Robot" launch event, which showed new application scenarios such as serving as a bartender, Musk also said that the cost of the Optimus robot for large-scale production would be between $20,000 and $30,000.

2. China

Dominate the supply chain in the fields of batteries, sensors, and servo motors. The rapid development of the continent's manufacturing industry, especially in the fields of mobile phone manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, has laid a solid foundation for the development of the robot industry. The continent accounts for 56%, 26% and 30% of the supply chain, respectively, while the U.S. accounts for just over 3% of the supply chain for these key components, which is almost negligible.

It has a huge market and talent pool, a population base and a sound software and hardware infrastructure to provide a good foundation for data collection. China has a huge manufacturing base and a perfect industrial chain, which provides a solid soil for the development of the industrial robot industry. In terms of human resources, China's engineering team is large and continues to grow, providing a steady stream of intellectual support for the research and development and innovation of industrial robot technology.

The Chinese government attaches great importance to the development of the robot industry and has issued a series of policies to support the innovation and application of the robot industry. The relevant government departments attach great importance to the development of the robot industry, and have introduced a series of support policies and plans, providing clear development orientation and policy support for the industrial robot industry, and promoting the healthy and rapid development of the industry.

China's industrial robot enterprises have generally adopted a diversified, differentiated and international development strategy. Through mergers and acquisitions, technical cooperation and independent research and development, the company continuously improves its technical strength and product competitiveness; Actively explore domestic and foreign markets to improve brand awareness and market share.

China occupies an important position in the global humanoid robot supply chain. About 38% of the world's humanoid robot supply chain enterprises are located in China, and China's Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with Shenzhen as the core, occupies more than 55% of the embodied intelligent supply chain. As of July 2024, China holds more than 190,000 robot-related patents, accounting for about two-thirds of the world's total.

China's industrial robot industry has advantages in supporting related industries. China has a complete industrial system and supply chain network, which provides all-round support for the R&D, production and application of industrial robots. It has a strong industrial foundation in the fields of precision machinery, electronics, automation control, etc., which provides solid support for the key components and system integration of industrial robots. The rapid development of cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, and 5G has provided strong technical support for the intelligent upgrading of industrial robots.

Domestic enterprises focus on resources to catch up with foreign countries. The advantages of domestic products are obvious, closer to the market, close to customers, and the rapid response and rapid industrialization iteration brought by engineering and engineer dividends are strong. Domestic manufacturers focus on the domestic development of the industry, rapid breakthroughs, strong systematization capabilities, customers and domestic enterprises more confident in cooperation. At present, the main battlefield of the global robot industry is in China, and based on the ability formed in China, the opportunity to catch up is very large.