Suddenly, 2021 is almost over.
Judging the entire automobile industry in 2022 has undoubtedly become a hot spot for all parties in the industry.
On December 14, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers held the 2022 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit and released next year's forecast report. According to the forecast of the China Automobile Association, on the basis of the cumulative sales of new cars in the Chinese auto market from January to November this year, the sales of new cars in the Chinese auto market will reach 26.1 million in 2021, and in the market segment structure, the annual sales of the new energy automobile industry that are most concerned reached 3.4 million units, an increase of 1.5 times year-on-year.
Looking ahead to 2022, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers believes that although the chip crisis will continue. However, there are multiple factors conducive to the development of the auto market in 2022, such as China's macro economy will continue to recover steadily, macro policies will promote automobile consumption, epidemic prevention and control will continue to improve, overseas demand is strong, chip supply will gradually recover, and new energy vehicle exports will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2022, China's new car sales will reach 27.5 million units, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year. Among them, passenger car sales were 23 million units, an increase of 8% year-on-year; commercial vehicle sales were 4.5 million units, down 6% year-on-year; and new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million units, an increase of 47% year-on-year.
The author believes that for the upcoming 2022, what is more critical than the total is the evolution of the competitive landscape.
01
Electrification and intelligence speed up, independent brand competition qualifying is becoming increasingly fierce
Although the Chinese and even global auto industry in 2021 is plagued by the two major crises of chips and the epidemic, Chinese brands have performed remarkablely.
Taking the current top three Chinese brand leaders Chang'an, Great Wall and Geely as an example, in terms of performance in 2021, its leading position has been further consolidated.
According to the statistics of the Association of Multipliers, as of November. The cumulative sales of the three leading independent car companies in 2021 will exceed the million mark.
Changan Automobile sold 89,000 units in November, surpassing the million-unit mark with cumulative sales of about 1.045 million units in the first 11 months. Changan's two classic product series, CS75 and CS55, both exceeded 20,000 units in November, and its mid-to-high-end UNI series also reached 10,000 vehicles.
Under the trend that Harvard contributed 70,000 vehicles as the main force, Great Wall Motors also exceeded one million vehicles, with cumulative sales of about 1.119 million vehicles.
According to the announcement from Geely Automobile, in November, Geely Holding Group sold about 136,000 units, an increase of 22% month-on-month; in the first 11 months of this year, Geely Holding Group's cumulative sales volume was about 1.169 million units.
Does the fact that the independent head is so strong mean that the qualifying battle of the independent brand is much calmer? The answer is clearly no.
Not to mention, the three independent heads have been adjusted around the multi-brand, electrification, and intelligent acceleration strategy. On the independent brands in the back ranking, their competitive strength must not be ignored lightly.
Among them, BYD is the most prominent example, with the leading edge of the new energy track, BYD's impact effect is becoming more and more powerful. According to the top 15 list of manufacturers' sales in November released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, BYD has become a "dark horse" with a year-on-year increase of 81.9%, ranking second among its own brands.
In addition, SAIC Passenger Cars, GAC Motor, Chery, etc., have shown considerable competitiveness.
It can be expected that the battle for independent brand qualifying in 2022 will show an unprecedented fierce competition.
02
Wei Xiaoli has entered a stage of steady development, and the strategy of Huawei and Xiaomi automobiles has accelerated
In 2021, China's new energy vehicle market will gradually mature, and private penetration will increase. Among them, the most concerned is the 3 new forces of head car manufacturing, Wei Xiaoli, after four or five years of initial accumulation. This year has also entered a relatively steady stage of development.
Since the beginning of this year, the delivery volume of Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile has shown a trend of catching up with each other, repeatedly setting new highs and continuously improving the expectations of capital and the market. According to data released by the three companies, at the end of the month before the end of the full year of 2021, the three companies have joined the 100,000-vehicle club together.
100,000 vehicles is already a fairly benign signal for the automotive industry, which is very focused on economies of scale.
Under such a competitive situation, for huawei, millet and other technology companies, the space left for them to show their hands has become smaller and smaller.
As recently revealed in the news, Lei Jun has successively withdrawn from the positions of legal representative, executive director or chairman of a number of Xiaomi affiliated companies, including Guangdong Xiaomi Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Xiaomi Communication Technology Co., Ltd., Guangzhou Xiaomi Information Service Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Xiaomi Communication Technology Co., Ltd., Xiaomi Technology (Wuhan) Co., Ltd. and so on.
As Wang Hua, general manager of Xiaomi Public Relations, responded, Lei Jun will put more energy into car-related matters, which is a gesture and an action. Since announcing its entry into the field of electric vehicles at the beginning of this year, Xiaomi Automobile has indeed continued to accelerate and ushered in a series of substantive progress, including company registration, team formation, investment and mergers, and the settlement of Xiaomi headquarters and factory bases.
For Huawei, there is no obvious conclusion as to whether it is a deep enabler who chooses to be a deep enabler of the industry or to personally build a car. But there is no doubt that under the pressure of internal and external pressure, Huawei's automotive strategy must be accelerated.
Huawei's first smart model, the Xilis SF5, sold through channel stores, huawei's participation is not deep, and car sales under the leadership of Xiaokang are dismal. Therefore, on December 2, Jinkang Cyrus released the auto brand AITO jointly built with Huawei, integrating information from all parties, which is obviously a brand with a deep Huawei gene.
At the same time, Huawei also has to move between partners such as Changan and BAIC.
But in any case, for the new forces of car manufacturing and technology companies to lay out cars, 2022 is a very critical year.
03
Toyota's electrification suddenly woke up, and multinational cars have accelerated their four-modernization strategy
The giants are waking up and the elephants are turning, which is a big signal that Toyota threw to the global auto industry at the end of the year.
On December 14, Toyota held a press conference on its battery electric vehicle strategy. Toyota announced that it will invest 4 trillion yen ($35 billion) to develop electric vehicles by 2030, with the goal of selling 3.5 million electric vehicles worldwide every year by then. Among them, the Lexus brand plans to sell all electric vehicles in Europe, North America and China by 2030, and pure electric vehicle sales will account for 100% of the brand's sales by 2035.
Compared with the past year, Toyota Akio frequently attacked Tesla and pure electric vehicles, expressing great concern about the rise of electric vehicles, believing that pure electric vehicles are not prominent in responding to climate change.
However, it is true that time has changed, and in the face of the rapid growth of the new energy automobile industry represented by China, Toyota is undoubtedly difficult to be at ease.
The transformation of another multinational giant, Volkswagen, is equally difficult.
After the reduction of power, Herbert Diess, the chairman of the Board of Management of the Volkswagen Group, who was retained, will remain chairman of the Global Management Board of the Volkswagen Group from January 1, 2022, but will no longer be responsible for the operation of the Group's core car brands, but will focus on the strategic management of the Group. But Diess will still be fully responsible for cariad, the software division of the Volkswagen Group, indicating that Volkswagen's transformation path is still moving forward despite its treacherous obstacles.
In the new year, it can be expected that the multinational giants represented by Toyota and Volkswagen will still accelerate strategic adjustment in the stumbling blocks, and the largest and most innovative and dynamic Chinese market is undoubtedly the focus of its efforts.
Written in the end: This is the best time and the worst time for the automotive industry, which has not changed in a hundred years. Under the stability of the total scale in 2022, it is the rise and fall of independent brands, new car-making forces, technology companies and multinational giants. As for who is the ultimate winner, it is necessary to deeply test the strategic wisdom and determination to change in an indomitable manner.