At the end of each year, the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association will hold an annual media communication meeting to share observations and prospects for the entire industry, rain or shine.
It is still industry expert Ouyang Minggao who will share and Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association.
So what predictions will they give this time?
This year's market growth exceeded expectations, but it was logical
Not long ago, each car company announced its own new energy model sales, the new force three small dragon sales exceeded 10,000, other car companies have also different degrees of growth.
Anyone can also see that the situation of the entire new energy automobile industry is very good.
In response to this phenomenon, Ouyang Minggao's view is: "This year's market growth exceeded expectations, but it is logical."
In his view, this year's market outbreak should be said to be the result of technological progress, product abundance, and policy strength.
At the technical level, the continuous improvement of battery technology, the continuous innovation of the structural design of the battery system, such as large-scale applications such as blade batteries and CTP, coupled with the reduction in costs brought about by the large-scale installation of lithium iron phosphate batteries at the market level, these measures have reduced the entry threshold of electric vehicles.
At the same time, the intelligent driving assistance system that shares the natural attributes of the electric vehicle and the superior handling performance of the electric vehicle itself (starting acceleration, throttle response) are also the key to attracting users.
At the product level, new energy models are now abundant, covering all passenger car levels. At present, there is a new phenomenon of "two-end squeezing" in the market segment and product structure: mini cars have been basically occupied by electric vehicles, and luxury cars are basically dominated by electric vehicles.
At the policy level, the continuation of subsidies, the price increase of double credits and the introduction of the "carbon peak carbon neutrality" strategy are also self-evident in guiding the industry.
At the same time, we can see that the role of subsidies on consumption is gradually fading, users' acceptance of new energy is gradually increasing, and the proportion of private car purchases based on market consumption has risen to nearly 75%.
According to the data of the Association, the penetration rate of new energy reached 18.8% in October, and the retail penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles reached 13% from January to October, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020.
Three million sales a year is just the beginning
According to Ouyang Minggao's estimate, the total sales volume of new energy this year is about 3.3 million (this data in 2020 is 25.311 million vehicles), as of the first ten months, China's new energy sales have exceeded 2.5 million, so it is a foregone conclusion that the annual production and sales will reach a new high.
"That number will continue to grow to 5 million units next year," he added, adding: "It's still limited by battery supply, chip supply and capacity constraints."
In May this year, the International Energy Agency IEA released a global carbon neutral roadmap, which shows that from 2020 to 2030, global electric vehicle sales will increase by 18 times, reaching 55 million annual sales in 2030, and foreign relatively conservative forecasts are 30 million global electric vehicle sales in 2030.
After the plan analysis, the Ouyang Minggao team gave its overall forecast for China's new energy market:
New energy sales:
7 million -9 million in 2025;
In 2030, it will be roughly 17 million -19 million.
(In 2020, China's automobile production, sales and sales exceeded 25 million units, 25.225 million units and 25.311 million units, respectively.) ）
New energy ownership:
More than 30 million vehicles in 2025;
Roughly 100 million vehicles by 2030;
Roughly 200 million vehicles by 2035;
Nearly 300 million vehicles in 2040.
(By the end of 2020, there were 372 million motor vehicles in the country.) ）
Not to mention whether this number will come true, this actually reveals a signal: the global electrification of automobiles has broken through the critical point and entered a new period of growth.
Within 5-10 years, the industry will be reshuffled
"There will be a major corporate reshuffle in 5-10 years, and a batch will definitely be eliminated, and it is impossible to predict who will die."
This is the judgment given by Ouyang Minggao, and this judgment is also in line with the current competitive pattern.
Electrification brings not only in the vehicle structure and supply chain level, but also the reconstruction of brand recognition.
For old brands, transformation is imminent, and a number of giants have issued 2025 strategies and 2030 strategies to show their determination to transform.
However, the dilemma is that the burden of transformation is too heavy. "The old brand wants to make the electric vehicle the same as the fuel vehicle, and the appearance does not dare to change, for fear of being inconsistent with the previous brand image." If you change it, it will be on the same starting line as the new brand, so it is very tangled."
The new forces, on the other hand, can go light because they start from scratch. Like Weilai, Ideal has gradually become a new luxury brand, but also has its own loyal fans.
However, the advantage of traditional giants is that they have deep roots and still have a very large mass base.
The next one or two years will be the time when major brands collectively exert their strength. Let's simply list a few of them to see:
New Forces:
NIO: 3 new NP2.0 platform vehicles delivered in 2022;
Ideal: 4 new cars in 2023;
Xiaopeng: At least 2-3 new cars will be launched every year in 2023.
……
New Strengths:
Extreme Kr: In the next three years, 6 new models will be launched;
Land: In the next three years, no less than one new car will be released to the market every year;
Salon: Salon will launch 1 to 2 new products per year for the next 5 years.
Zhiji: Pure electric sedan will be launched at the end of the year and delivered next year, and pure electric SUV will be listed in 2022
Traditional Giants:
Volkswagen: Become the global market leader in electric vehicles by 2025 at the latest.
BMW: In 2023, pure electric vehicles are expected to cover about 90% of the market segment
Mercedes-Benz: In 2022, it will offer pure electric models for all market segments it serves
Nissan: By fiscal year 2030, Nissan will launch 23 new electric models, including 15 new electric vehicles (worldwide)
Honda China: 10 new Honda brand electric vehicles launched in a row in 5 years.
Crossover Players:
Jidu Automobile: New vehicles will be launched in 2023
Xiaomi Auto: Mass production of new cars in the first half of 2024
......
As can be seen by the naked eye, in the next two years, the "fierce battle" between new forces, new strengths, joint ventures, and cross-border players is inevitable.
Suddenly remembered what Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, said in an interview with the media that only 2-3 auto companies can survive in the future.
Now it seems that there is no reason.
Battle Royale, begin
The industrialization of new energy vehicles in China has gone through three stages:
The first stage: the policy-driven stage (large-scale subsidies to car companies and users);
The second stage: policy + market-driven stage (subsidy decline + decision-making power gradually returned to users);
The third stage: market-driven (in the post-subsidy era, demand is completely determined by the market).
Fortunately, judging from the current trend, we are smoothly transitioning to the third stage, and the industry has officially entered the "Spring and Autumn Warring States" period.
At the same time, with the tilt of European and American policies, electrification has become a foregone conclusion, and many international giants have focused on the layout of electrification in China, such as Honda, which was just mentioned.
As Chen Qingtai said: "Now the electrification or new energy vehicles have also changed from the competition of Chinese car companies in the local auto market to the global competition of global car companies in the field of new energy."
The "battle royale" of the new energy industry has begun...
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