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In 2023, new energy vehicle companies should not be too confident

In 2023, new energy vehicle companies should not be too confident

Image source: @VisualChina

Text | Ray Technology Ieitech

In 2022, the world is still not free from the impact of the epidemic, many industries are in the storm, even if the economic conditions are good, there is an industry in the world that is growing rapidly, this industry is new energy vehicles.

According to the survey results of LMC Automotive, an automobile sales research organization, and the website EV-Volumes, global pure electric vehicle sales in 2022 will be 7.8 million units, a year-on-year increase of 68%, and the share will exceed 10% for the first time. According to Bloomberg supplementary data, the total global sales of new energy vehicles in 2022 will be about 10 million, creating a record high.

All glory is in the past, 2023 arrives, the automotive industry has also seen many situations, such as China's new energy vehicle subsidies decline, the increase in share also means that it is more vulnerable to the economic crisis. Looking forward to 2023, in what direction will the new energy automobile industry develop?

The growth rate has slowed down, and the old car companies have shown their prestige

According to Bloomberg's forecast, global new energy vehicle sales will reach 13.6 million units in 2023, maintaining an increase of more than 30%, when compared with the exaggerated data of previous years, the increase has dropped a lot. However, unlike the situation in previous years, when new forces in car manufacturing were the protagonists, old car companies are bound to rise in 2023.

Toyota, which is also one of the two giants of the automotive industry, has less voice in the field of new energy vehicles, because the supply chain of old car companies is too deeply involved. Akio Toyoda has said that if the new energy vehicle is forcibly transformed, 5 million people in Japan will lose their jobs. However, in 2022, Toyota bZ3, Rongfang RAV4 and other products will be launched, which also allows us to see Toyota's actions.

In 2023, new energy vehicle companies should not be too confident

Source: FAW Toyota

The heritage of old car companies is still there, as long as they are determined to develop into the new energy automobile industry, it is time to transform now.

As for model changes, Bloomberg predicts that 75% of new energy vehicles sold in 2023 will be pure electric vehicles. For ordinary people, the advantage of new energy vehicles is not environmental protection, but low travel costs, electricity costs are much cheaper than fuel costs, so under conditions, pure electric vehicles are a better choice.

However, this also depends on the market, China's area is too large, the population density is high, in terms of the current charging station construction, there is no problem with daily travel, and it may fall into battery life anxiety every New Year's holiday. Ralf Brandstätter, head of Volkswagen's China operations, said that for every four vehicles sold in China in 2022, one will be a plug-in hybrid, and the proportion may increase to one-third next year in 2023.

It can be seen that in the Chinese market, the share of plug-in hybrid vehicles (including extended-range electric vehicles) can compete with pure electric vehicles. Although the cost of hybrid vehicle travel is higher than that of pure electric vehicles, it is significantly lower than that of fuel vehicles, especially in urban driving, coupled with the convenience of supplementary energy, suitable for domestic consumers.

In 2023, new energy vehicle companies should not be too confident

For the vast majority of new automakers, the situation is not optimistic, and long-term losses will inevitably lead to a loss of investor confidence. For example, WM Motor has recently exposed the closure of a large number of directly-operated stores and dealers.

China, the mecca of new energy vehicles

In 2023, the biggest dilemma facing the new energy automobile industry is the subsidy decline, not only China, but also the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, etc., are reducing subsidies for new energy vehicles. Long-term subsidies for new energy vehicles will have an impact on national finances, and as new energy vehicle sales become higher and higher, subsidies will inevitably decrease little by little.

On January 1, 2023, China's new energy automobile industry bid farewell to subsidies, and many new energy models officially announced price increases. Bloomberg said that despite China's removal of new energy vehicle subsidies, it is still the world's largest new energy vehicle market, and it is expected that China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 8 million units in 2023, accounting for about 59% of total sales.

In other words, if new energy vehicle companies want to develop and grow, China is definitely the most critical market. Europe and the United States are also major markets for new energy vehicles, but their combined share is not as good as China's. After the advent of the era of new energy vehicles, China's auto industry has bid farewell to decades of backwardness and finally stood at the forefront of the world, but we also understand that qualified car companies cannot only sell domestically, but must go global.

In 2023, new energy vehicle companies should not be too confident

On the whole, the increase in the share of global new energy vehicles will slow down in 2023, and only China can maintain a high growth rate. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that China's passenger car sales will reach 23.8 million units in 2023, and combined with Bloomberg estimates, about one-third will be new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2025~2030, the share of domestic new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles will come to an inflection point, and after 2030, the share of domestic new energy vehicles may exceed that of fuel vehicles.

How much new energy vehicle sales increase, in addition to looking at the product power of newly launched models, there are two important factors, that is, basic ecological construction and technological upgrading.

A comprehensive upgrade of technology can enhance consumers' desire to buy cars

As mentioned above, the reason why plug-in hybrid vehicles are popular in China is because of the large area, high population density, and too high demand for charging stations. Bloomberg predicts that 1.3 million new public charging stations will be added worldwide in 2023, bringing the total to 4.1 million.

Distributed to the world, it seems that the number of new additions is not much, the good news is that Bloomberg bluntly said that how much new public charging stations are added, completely depends on the situation of the Chinese market, Europe and North America lag behind a lot, Chinese car companies are very dedicated to the construction of car charging networks.

However, considering the charging time of electric vehicles, just the addition of charging stations cannot make car owners completely say goodbye to battery life anxiety. There are two solutions to avoid range anxiety, one is to shorten the charging time to be comparable to fuel vehicles, and the other is to greatly improve the range of electric vehicles.

At present, the fast charging power of new energy vehicles has reached about 250kW, although there is still room for improvement, but it is unlikely to catch up with fuel vehicles, after all, too high power may be dangerous. Improving battery life through a large battery is a more economical solution.

In 2022, GAC AION, NIO and other car companies have successively launched some pure electric vehicles with a range of 1,000 kilometers, but the price is generally expensive. In 2023, our biggest expectation is that battery technology will break through again, and the price of products with a range of more than 1,000 kilometers can be significantly reduced. Now in the middle of winter, many pure electric vehicle owners are troubled by battery life, winter battery life shrinkage can be understood, but some cars with a range of about 500 kilometers, after the winter shrinkage, cross-city travel has become a problem.

In addition to electric vehicles, new energy vehicles also have a classification, that is, hydrogen energy vehicles. Foreign Toyota, Hyundai, domestic Changan, GAC, BAIC, etc., are engaged in the research and development of hydrogen energy vehicles, limited by the storage and transportation costs of hydrogen energy, hydrogen energy is currently not as commercial value as electric vehicles. In 2023, hydrogen energy vehicles will also have some new products on the market, but I am afraid that it will be difficult to make a major breakthrough in technology.

There is also a cutting-edge technology in the automotive field - autonomous driving, and the relevant laws and regulations are becoming more and more perfect, and the commercial use of autonomous driving technology is getting closer and closer. Domestic Hesai Technology and Huawei are committed to reducing the price of lidar and making autonomous driving the standard for future cars, and have achieved good results. In 2023, the price of lidar will further decline, which is conducive to accelerating the commercial use of autonomous driving technology.

As ordinary consumers, we are not concerned about environmental issues and carbon emissions, but about the cost and convenience of travel. Every time Lei Technology talks about buying a car, no one will recommend buying pure electric vehicles, because there are no conditions for installing charging piles, and the construction of charging stations is not perfect, either choose fuel vehicles or buy hybrid vehicles.

In 2023, China will still be the world's largest automobile market, a new energy vehicle center, and the entire industry is booming, but fuel vehicles will still be the mainstream. China has not clearly banned the sale of fuel vehicles, and at this rate, I am afraid that by 2040, there will still be a market for domestic fuel vehicles.

As for how to choose a car in 2023, it mainly depends on personal use, there are more urban travel, and there are conditions for installing charging piles, you can consider pure electric vehicles, it is not convenient to install charging piles, you can consider hybrid vehicles. As for fuel vehicles, they are suitable for people who often run long distances, or have a higher pursuit of driving feeling.

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