The "three-child policy" is coming, can the "three children" come? The cost of raising a child has been calculated

Recently, with the three-child policy being written into the government work reports of 18 provinces, the Women's and Children's Department of the Zhejiang Provincial Health Commission produced the "Questionnaire on the Cost of Raising Infants and Young Children Under 3 Years old in Zhejiang Province", which set up questions such as "Assuming that the government gives a monthly subsidy of 1,000 yuan for having two/three children (from birth to 3 years old), are you willing to have a second/third child?" "In 2021, both spouses will receive financial support from other sources (such as support from the grandparents of infants and young children)" and so on. The topic of the three children has once again rushed to the hot search.

Why is the topic of three children so hot, and why is the topic of three children so important?

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of births in 2017 was only 630,000 fewer than the previous year, but the number of one-child births was only 7.24 million, 2.49 million fewer than in 2016.

From the perspective of the child structure of the population born in 2017, there are 7.24 million children, accounting for 42.02%,02%, 8.83 million children, accounting for 51.25%, and 1.16 million people with three children and above, accounting for 6.73%. The number of second-child births is 1.59 million more than the number of first-child births.

Also according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total population of Chinese mainland at the end of 2018 139538 million, an increase of 5.3 million over the end of the previous year. The annual birth rate is 10.94 per thousand; The natural growth rate is 3.81 ‰.

In 2018, the birth population was 15.23 million, and the birth rate was 10.94 ‰, the lowest since the data existed in 1952, and the previous value was 12.43 ‰; The death population is 9.93 million, and the population mortality rate is 7.13 ‰, compared with 7.11 ‰ in the previous value; The natural population growth rate was 3.81 per thousand, the lowest since 1961, and the previous value was 5.32 per thousand.

The aging of the social population structure has become increasingly obvious, and it is necessary to have a new generation to supplement fresh blood, but the child birth rate is declining.

Second, how big is the cost of raising a child?

There are two sources that can be seen online:

1. Beijing: 2.76 million

2. Shanghai: 2.47 million;

3. Shenzhen: 2.161 million

4. Guangzhou: 2.014 million

5. Hangzhou: 1.832 million

6. Nanjing: 1.701 million

7. Wuhan: 1.606 million

8. Qingdao: 1.526 million

9. Xi'an: 1.425 million

10. Changchun: 1.315 million

There is also a way to calculate the account:

Stage 1 Infants (0-3 years)

At this stage, the child is young, needs careful care, needs milk powder, diapers, toys, etc., so the cost of the infancy of 0 to 3 years old is very expensive. Probably integrated, all the costs average about 2500 yuan per month.

The total cost of 3 years = 2500 × 12 × 3 = 90000 yuan.

Stage 2 Infants (3-6 years old)

At this time, children gradually began to go to kindergarten, and education costs began to occupy the main position. At this stage, the child's food, clothing, shelter, or occasional illness, the overall calculation cost is a little higher than that of the infant stage. The total cost is about 3,000 yuan per month on average.

3 years of total expenses = 3000 × 12 × 3 = 108000 yuan.

3. Stage Childhood (6-12 years old)

Children at this age have entered primary school, in addition to the purchase of toys, but also increased the need for courses to cultivate children's abilities in all aspects, so this stage of education funds accounted for a relatively large proportion. The total cost averages about 2400 yuan per month.

The total cost of 6 years = 2400 × 12 × 6 = 172800 yuan.

Article 4. Stage Teenagers (12~18 years old)

Children in the middle and high school stages have heavy learning pressure, and it is also a critical period for long-term physical persons, and the cost of schoolwork and clothing requirements are gradually increasing. The total cost averages $3150 per month.

The total cost of 6 years = 3150 × 12 × 6 = 226800 yuan.

Article 5. Stage University Youth (18~22 years old)

In college, children have a sense of autonomy, the requirements have gradually increased, in addition to paying for children's academic expenses, children will also have to participate in various clubs, social expenses, plus children also have personal hobbies, such as photography, music and so on. The average monthly cost at this stage is about 2200 yuan.

The total cost of 4 years = 2200 × 12 × 4 = 105600 yuan.

Total age 0 to 22 years old

90000+108000+172800+226800+105600 = 703200 yuan.

These are all data from three or four years ago.

Third, in addition to economic costs, what are the problems?

1, female pressure problem: three consecutive births, fast if it takes five or six years, slow if eight to ten years, during this period is basically a full-time housewife, has a great impact on the career, but also faces the embarrassment of leaving society;

2, age-appropriate issues: Suppose a girl marries at the age of 23, then before the age of 30 to complete the task of having children. Suppose that after going to college, you will go to graduate school, study for a doctorate, or participate in work for a period of time, and then enter marriage, and if you have children quickly, you must complete it between the ages of 25 and 35, so as to avoid the problem of advanced maternal age as much as possible. It's even more challenging if it's an older leftover woman and a leftover man.

3, the problem of child care: children need to be cared for for a long time, if the housewife wants to have three children in a row, it is basically difficult to have children while giving birth, it is necessary to have a long time nanny intervention, or there are healthy elderly people who can help with children for a long time.

4, male pressure problem: women face a lot of pressure, many of these pressures need to be borne by men, bringing challenges to the simultaneous development of both lives and careers.

Four: Which families in real life are suitable for having three children

From ancient times to the present, those who have more children and consider education issues are first of all relatively wealthy families in the economic aspect, in order to bear various expenses in this regard. If there is no economic condition as a basis, it is easy to have children, but children will face the problem of healthy growth or even how to grow up.

The most obvious example, as can be seen in the divorce dispute between Li Lianglei and Wang Lihong a few years ago, Li Lianglei has given birth to three children in a row, and at the same time, she wants two nannies and a driver to help bring them together, not to mention 210,000 yuan per month in child support, and nearly 200 million other assets. Not every family has to do this standard, and even if the standard is lowered, it is a real problem.

In addition, for some people, the problem of three children is even more distant, or first solve the problem of imbalance between men and women and the problem of older leftover men and women. The marriage rate is not rising, and it is also challenging to rely on existing married families to increase the number of children.