The author believes that China's automobile exports can be considered to basically follow: based on the "Belt and Road" countries, focusing on ASEAN countries and neighboring countries, and gradually infiltrating into developed countries.
Author 丨 Zhao Ying Li Kaiwei
Edited by 丨 Dahua
Produced 丨 Automan Media
In recent years, China's automobile exports have shown a steady increase trend, breaking through the 2 million mark last year.
In this year's complex international and domestic environment, automobile exports still maintain a strong momentum, of which new energy vehicles have become export highlights.
The steady increase in China's automobile exports is in line with the trend of China's automobile industry from big to strong.
In the context of the rapidly changing international situation and the low-speed growth of the domestic automobile market, looking forward to the future, automobile exports will become an important pillar to support the development of China's automobile industry.
Since automobile exports are so important, we cannot but think strategically. To think about the international strategy of China's automobile industry in a complex international environment and a domestic environment of low-speed growth, we must think from the perspective of political, security and economic integration. What kind of international strategy should China's auto industry build?
The author believes that China's automobile exports can be considered to basically follow: based on the "Belt and Road" countries, focusing on ASEAN countries and neighboring countries, and gradually infiltrating into developed countries.
The author came to the above conclusion after years of thinking.
Based on the "Belt and Road" countries, it is because the "Belt and Road" is a national grand strategy, relying on the countries on the "Belt and Road", which can not only provide assistance for the national strategy, but also benefit from the national "Belt and Road" strategy and policy, and can get the corresponding support of the state (including foreign projects).
The overall economic development level of the "Belt and Road" countries shows different gradient gaps with the economic development level of the mainland, and there can be both vertical division of labor and horizontal cooperation.
These countries are either politically friendly or neutral to China (even if coerced by hegemonic powers, they will not be hostile to the mainland).
The focus on ASEAN countries and neighboring countries is because ASEAN and its neighboring countries are close neighbors of the mainland, maintain a considerable distance from global hegemons politically and diplomatically, and are geographically affected by China.
Even if some countries have certain ideas, reality is a fundamental factor in influencing national strategies. Recently, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's speech in the United States was very interesting.
The launch of RCEP has formed the world's largest and mutually beneficial free trade body, laying the foundation for China and ASEAN to develop trade and strengthen economic division of labor and cooperation. At the same time, it has also created a good market environment for China's automotive industry to extend to ASEAN and neighboring countries.
The level of economic development and industrial development of ASEAN and neighboring countries has provided conditions for China's automobile industry to cooperate with it.
The automobile consumption market in these countries is generally large (ASEAN countries combined), and the domestic market of some countries has great potential for development (for example, Indonesia), but it is subject to the level of economic development, the level of science and technology, the level and scale of development of the automobile industry. Therefore, the cooperation needs of the two sides will be more.
Of course, in these national markets, there is competitive pressure from Japanese auto companies. However, in the field of new energy vehicles, due to the sudden rise of China's automobile industry, the opportunities are greater.
Taking Thailand as an example, as one of the RCEP members, Thailand has many opportunities for the development of China's advantageous industries, and new energy vehicles are one of the more representative industries.
On February 15, 2022, Thailand's Cabinet meeting approved the Support Measures for Electric Vehicles including Pure Electric Vehicles, Motorcycles and Pickup Trucks proposed by the National Electric Vehicle Policy Committee (EV Board) to promote the government's target of 30% of Thailand's total electric vehicle production by 2030.
Duangjai Asawachintachit, secretary general of the Investment Commission of Thailand, said the policy was in response to the fundamental shift taking place in the global automotive industry, and the relevant initiatives will help accelerate the production of electric vehicles in Thailand and the development of related supply chains.
Overall, thailand's automotive industry is in the early stages of the transformation of traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, and the government has continuously increased its support in recent years to promote the electrification of the country's automobile industry.
Supent, president of the Federation of Thai Industries and a member of the Electric Vehicle Policy Committee, believes that this package will help increase the demand for electric vehicles in the local market and will also encourage manufacturers to start producing electric vehicles, otherwise they will lose the opportunity to benefit from this market.
According to the analysis of Thai Business Daily, the Thai automotive industry is in the initial stage of the transformation of traditional gasoline vehicles to new energy vehicles. Sino-Thai cooperation will help promote the transformation of Thailand's automotive industry and provide consumers with more diversified and higher-tech choices for automobile brands. In terms of the new energy vehicle industry chain, the Thai market can provide window opportunities for Chinese enterprises, such as the battery industry and upstream raw materials.
As Chinese auto companies SAIC and Great Wall enter the Thai market, it is expected to attract more Chinese car companies and auto parts manufacturers to invest in Thailand in the future, and plug-in hybrid vehicles and battery-powered vehicles may be popularized in Thailand.
At this stage, the new energy vehicle technology owned by China, in terms of price, coincides with the market positioning of Southeast Asian countries, and can give full play to the advantages of mainland new energy vehicles in the Southeast Asian market and promote the sales of low-end vehicles.
However, at the same time, we should combine the trend of Southeast Asian vehicle brands to develop to the middle and high-end, and consider completing product brand and image upgrades in 5-10 years to prevent falling into the trap of low-end brands similar to motorcycle exports.
The gradual infiltration into developed countries is because there is still a big gap between the mainland automobile industry and the developed countries in the automobile industry. In countries with developed automobile industries, technical barriers to the entry of mainland automotive products are also invisible. However, a considerable number of developed countries do not have an automobile industry.
From the perspective of the composition of automotive products, mainland auto products have relative advantages in some areas (for example, the export of large buses), especially it is worth mentioning that the mainland has gradually shown a competitive advantage in the field of electric vehicles.
According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China's export volume of electric vehicles in 2021 will be 499573, an increase of 2.6 times year-on-year. In 2021, the top ten countries in China's new energy vehicle export volume are Belgium, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom, India, Thailand, Germany, France, Slovenia, Australia and the Philippines.
Compared with 2020, China's exports of new energy vehicles to the above ten countries have shown an increasing trend, of which Slovenia, Australia and Thailand have the most obvious growth rates. It can be seen that the export of new energy vehicles in the mainland is promising even in developed countries.
Judging from the international political and security situation, the hostility and even suppression of the mainland by Western countries will not be greatly alleviated at least in the medium term. The international tensions caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war are difficult to alleviate in the short term.
Chinese auto companies entering Western developed countries will not only encounter political problems, but also fully consider asset safety. In such cases, it is prudent not to give up efforts but to move forward slowly.
The author proposes to "infiltrate" the entry in developed countries, that is, to base on the long term and make solid progress through gradual and successive efforts.
At the end of this article, the author feels that the grand strategy of gradually infiltrating into developed countries based on the "Belt and Road" countries, focusing on ASEAN countries and neighboring countries, not only has reference value for the export of automobile products, but also has certain reference value for foreign investment in the automobile industry. 【Author:Zhao Ying, Li Kaikai (Public Opinion Analyst)】
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