On April 27, SAIC Motor closed its stock price at 15.14 yuan, noting that this was in the case of a slight increase of 0.53%, and before that, SAIC's stock has fallen for a long time. This is a car company that can earn more than 13.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2021, a large automobile group that integrates joint venture car companies, independent car companies, new energy car companies and even auto parts companies, and is also a market leader that can sell nearly 5.5 million cars a year.
However, SAIC motor is now so snubbed in the capital market. In retrospect, SAIC's performance in the capital market has in fact been poor, and after the outbreak in Shanghai, its performance in the capital market has been even worse. However, stimulated by the "resumption of work and production", saic stock price of SAIC Group has also risen for a time, but unfortunately it has fallen again in a flash.
In fact, a large number of listed vehicle companies, including GAC Group and Changan Automobile, have performed poorly in the capital market in 2022, especially in the recent epidemic. Behind this, more is that the entire automotive industry is facing the impact of the epidemic on production stoppages, production cuts and sales. According to the survey data of the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the national automobile wholesale volume in the first week of April was -40% year-on-year. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen wholesale -84%, SAIC-GM -98%, other -10-20%, also not ideal.
But hasn't the industry resumed work and production?
The resumption of work and production in the industry is difficult to carry out The pressure on the industry is huge
In mid-April, the Shanghai area gradually opened the curtain of resumption of work and production, on the 18th, SAIC Motor launched the stress test of resuming work and production, and with the implementation of the "resumption of work and production" white list, many automobile-related enterprises and other industry enterprises have also joined the army of resumption of work and production. However, the resumption of work and production has actually been difficult, facing challenges from many aspects such as employees and materials.
As far as employees are concerned, due to closed-loop production, enterprises need to do some rotation, so the actual people out of the epidemic prevention and control need more to rotate, according to the "Dao Ge Said Car" editor understands that SAIC Volkswagen closed-loop production is "11 + 11 + 6" shifts, that is, work 11 hours, 6 days a week; at the same time, due to the epidemic situation, in fact, many communities have not been opened, and the personnel of the automakers and auto parts companies are not optimistic about resetting. Previously, the sales director of Shanghai Daimei Shares, an auto parts company, also posted in the circle of friends that "no one can be fished", and the conditions for resuming work are also more cautious, and it takes 7 days for the building to be without positive.
In terms of materials, according to the "white list" previously released by Shanghai, the resumption of work and production is basically a primary parts supplier, but in fact, vehicle production also needs a lot of secondary bulk suppliers to resume work and production; at the same time, it is an important oem production base, but there is a whole automotive industry chain around Shanghai's Jiangsu and Zhejiang Anhui, such as Suzhou's Taicang, Kunshan, Suzhou Industrial Park, Zhejiang's Jiaxing, Ningbo are important parts Bosch Electronics, UMC, Schaeffler, Webasto and other core companies of production. The spillover of the epidemic has also allowed the surrounding areas of Shanghai to be sealed; in addition, the transportation of auto parts involves inter-provincial, and the transportation of people's livelihood security materials is now more difficult, so the transportation of parts is also more difficult.
It is understood that the federation jointly discussed the situation with 50+ manufacturers, and the manufacturers believe that the impact of the epidemic has seriously exceeded expectations. 95% believe that it is much more than expected, completely beyond understanding. In addition, not only the supply side of the form is not optimistic, so is the demand side, the federation pointed out that the market side demand is not good, overall, the local epidemic prevention policy, 20% of auto retailers in March related doors, consumer purchasing power is also under pressure. "There are no people on the street, there are fewer stores, fewer transactions, and several shops around are closed," a certain auto-Besturn dealer told the editor of "Dao Ge Says Car".
Strong production capacity The automotive industry is recovering
At present, although the resumption of work and production is facing many pressures, the level of resumption of work and production is not good. The views of the association pointed out that the meticulous and specific control of the Shanghai area has made it difficult for many people to come out, and the resumption of production and work of Changchun FAW is not ideal, and the people stationed in the factory maintain the minimum operating speed. However, even so, with the steady progress of the resumption of work and production, automobile production capacity is climbing. The Federation pointed out that the mainland's automobile production capacity is very strong, with the highest monthly output of 2.62 million units in 2017, the lowest monthly output of 1.49 million units in 2021, and the recovery to 2.5 million units in December of that year, with great production flexibility. At present, it can produce 1.8 million vehicles in March and 1.2 million vehicles in April, so there is huge room for recovery.
As for the demand side, new energy vehicles are acceptable, but fuel vehicles face a relatively large threat, but after that will be improved, the association pointed out that new energy vehicles through the APP order, the advantages have been strengthened, the traditional car company model suffered from the impact of the epidemic, 4-6 months or the situation is relatively poor, and then will gradually improve, with the promotion, sales will gradually rise.
It is worth noting that automobile consumption is being promoted by policies, and the China Automobile Association recommended at the monthly meeting on April 11 that government departments introduce policies and measures to promote automobile consumption, including the policy of halving the purchase tax. On April 13, the National Standing Committee specifically proposed to encourage bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, and all localities must not add new car purchase restriction measures, and have implemented incremental indicators for purchase restrictions, and support the consumption of new energy vehicles and the construction of charging piles. Demand in the automotive market is being stimulated.
At present, the epidemic still cannot see a significant inflection point, and the production and logistics impact caused by the epidemic will inevitably occur, but at present, Changchun FAW enterprises are recovering, and Shanghai SAIC Motor Group, Tesla, etc. are also gradually starting to recover. The association pointed out that there is no doubt that the car has bottomed out, and the next step is to go up, and the industry's resilience is still there. So will the vehicle stocks that have been in the doldrums for a long time, especially companies like SAIC Motor and Changan Automobile, which have fallen to the bottom, usher in a wave of rise after that?