The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in "Attack" has reached a record high

Under the background of slightly weak production and sales of commercial vehicles, new energy commercial vehicles are showing a "thriving" development trend.

Statistics from the Passenger Car Market Information Association (hereinafter referred to as the "Passenger Car Association") show that in March 2022, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles nationwide reached 24,000 units, up 69.6% year-on-year, and the penetration rate reached 6.5%, a record high. From January to March this year, sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 49,000 units, up 97.9% year-on-year, and the penetration rate was 5.1%.

The counter-trend growth of new energy commercial vehicle sales is inseparable from policy support. In March this year, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Substitution of Electric Energy, proposing to further promote the electrification of the transportation sector, accelerate the electrification of urban public transportation, and give priority to the use of new energy vehicles in the fields of urban public transportation, taxi, sanitation, postal services, logistics and distribution.

In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Yutong Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Yutong Group") said in an interview with the "China Business Daily" reporter that in the face of the development trend of "big to small" and "low floor" products in the bus market, the company will launch a new modeling micro-circulation product, and improve the "small and medium-sized" and "low floor" product layout, "while seizing the new opportunities for urban and rural bus electrification transformation and fuel cell demonstration promotion, launching suitable products to cover market demand, in order to comprehensively enhance the public transport market share." ”

Sales of new energy commercial vehicles bucked the trend

According to the statistics of the National New Energy Commercial Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, from January to March this year, the cumulative sales of traditional fuel commercial vehicles in mainland China were 744,600 units, a year-on-year decline of 42.1%. Among them, the cumulative sales of traditional fuel mini trucks with the highest sales share reached 222,400 units, down about 18.8% from the same period in 2021; the cumulative sales of traditional fuel light trucks with a large proportion of sales were 157,600 units, down about 34.1% from the same period in 2021; the cumulative sales of traditional fuel heavy trucks, although they reached 115,700 units, fell sharply by about 74.6% compared with the same period in 2021.

In stark contrast to the decline in sales of traditional fuel commercial vehicles, sales of new energy commercial vehicles are rising against the trend. According to the above statistics of the National New Energy Commercial Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, from January to March this year, the sales of micro new energy buses and light new energy buses were more, reaching 17,100 and 9,072 units respectively, up 62.1% and 134.8% respectively from the same period in 2021. In addition, the sales of new energy heavy trucks and new energy micro trucks were 4728 units and 4396 units, respectively, up 661.4% and 227.6% respectively from the same period in 2021.

The sales of new energy commercial vehicles have grown against the trend, and related companies have also gained a lot. According to the data disclosed by Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, which has three major brands of remote cars, Ouling Motors and Valin Hanma, from January to March this year, the overall sales of long-range new energy commercial vehicles increased by 225.8% year-on-year, higher than the industry growth rate, ranking first in the industry.

It is understood that long-range vehicles are the first brand in China to focus on new energy commercial vehicles, and the products cover heavy trucks, light trucks, small micro trucks, buses and LCVs, etc., realizing the new energy of all categories of commercial vehicles.

The data shows that in 2021, the overall sales of long-distance vehicles increased by 288% year-on-year, far exceeding the cumulative growth rate of 51.4% of domestic new energy commercial vehicles year-on-year. Among them, the long-range vehicle new energy heavy truck increased by 369.9%, ranking first in the industry in the full target market of new energy heavy trucks; new energy light trucks increased by 460.6% year-on-year, ranking first in the industry in sales; Zengcheng light trucks increased by 372.0% year-on-year, maintaining an absolute market segment for three consecutive years.

According to the March production and sales data express report released by Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Dongfeng Motor", 600006.SH), from January to March this year, dongfeng motor's cumulative sales reached about 42,600 units, down 11.56% from the same period in 2021. Among them, the cumulative sales of light trucks and buses were 39,100 units and 1,666 units, down 7.29% and 57.84% respectively.

In the field of new energy vehicles, Dongfeng Motor achieved a cumulative sales volume of 4328 vehicles from January to March this year, a sharp increase of 55.13% over the same period in 2021.

In addition, the sales volume of new energy buses of Yutong Group has also increased significantly. According to the data of China Bus Statistical Information Network, in the sales of new energy buses over 6 meters in March this year, Yutong Group ranked first in the industry with sales of 815 vehicles, an increase of about 4.62% over the same period in 2021 and an increase of 153.89% month-on-month.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the Association, said in an interview with reporters that the decline in sales of traditional commercial vehicles is mainly due to the fact that new energy vehicles such as pure electricity have begun to replace traditional fuel vehicles. "New energy commercial vehicles are becoming more and more popular in logistics and other fields, so sales have increased to a certain extent."

The automobile industry has entered the "new blue ocean"

Behind the reverse trend in sales of new energy commercial vehicles, the strengthening of relevant policy support and the acceleration of the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles in recent years are accelerated.

According to the data, since 2021, the policy guidance on new energy vehicles has been released. For example, the State Council previously issued the "Carbon Peak action plan before 2030", which clearly stated: "By 2030, the proportion of new new energy and clean energy powered transportation will reach about 40%." ”

In December 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Industrial Green Development", which requires accelerating the low-carbon transformation of energy consumption and expanding consumption such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic solar thermal products. In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology recently said that it will promote the accelerated implementation of major projects and projects in the "14th Five-Year Plan" of the manufacturing industry, continue to carry out the pilot work of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and the power exchange mode, start the pilot project of fully electrified vehicles in the public domain, and accelerate the construction of charging and replacing facilities with relevant departments, promote information sharing, unified settlement, and continuously improve the convenience of charging and replacing.

It is understood that from the perspective of automobile emission structure, the current ownership of commercial vehicles only accounts for 10.9% of the total number of cars in the country, but its carbon emissions account for nearly 65% of the total vehicle carbon emissions. Under the implementation of the "double carbon" (carbon peak, carbon neutrality) target strategy, the new energy of commercial vehicles is becoming a "new blue ocean" for the development of the automobile industry.

In this context, many car companies are constantly expanding the scope of application of new energy commercial vehicles, and the penetration rate is also increasing. The relevant person in charge of Hanma Technology Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hanma Technology", 600375.SH), a subsidiary of Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, said in an interview with reporters that new energy heavy trucks have become one of the most important businesses of Hanma Technology, and it is also the goal of the transformation and upgrading of Hanma Technology business.

"In 2022, Hanma Technology will increase the sales of electric tractors in port container transportation, iron powder steel transportation and other key points to maintain a leading state; in urban construction slag transportation, sand and gravel transportation, etc., it will increase the market share of electric dump trucks; in urban concrete transportation, increase the promotion of new energy mixer trucks." The above-mentioned person in charge of Hanma Technology said.

"The company will focus on the sales of new energy heavy-duty truck models, supplemented by the sales of charging new energy heavy-duty truck models, to provide customers with integrated solutions for vehicles, electricity and stations." According to reports, the annual sales target for 2022 set by Hanma Technology at the beginning of the year is 20200 vehicles, and the market share target is 2%, of which the market share of new energy heavy trucks is 20%.

In the face of the market situation in 2022, Hanma Technology research pointed out that the total number of heavy-duty trucks in 2022 is about 1.05 million, of which the sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks are about 25,000.

Accelerate the layout of emerging tracks

In addition to pure electric vehicle models, emerging tracks such as hydrogen energy and methanol power are also becoming the focus of new energy commercial vehicle companies.

According to the "Medium- and Long-term Plan for the Development of hydrogen energy industry (2021-2035)" released by the National Development and Reform Commission, by 2025, there will be about 50,000 fuel cell vehicles, and a number of hydrogen refueling stations will be deployed. Focus on promoting the application of medium and heavy vehicles in hydrogen fuel cells, orderly expand the application space of new energy passenger and cargo vehicles such as hydrogen fuel cells, and gradually establish a complementary development model for fuel cell electric vehicles and lithium battery pure electric vehicles.

In this regard, the relevant person in charge of Yutong Group told reporters that the company has 458 hydrogen energy vehicle demonstration operation vehicles in the country, distributed in 8 cities such as Beijing, Zhangjiakou, Zhangjiagang and Zhengzhou, of which 223 and 185 are in operation in Zhengzhou and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions. "This year, Yutong Group's hydrogen energy bus sales target will reach 405 units, and the market share will reach 27%."

In addition to the hydrogen energy vehicle track, many car companies are also vigorously expanding the methanol power track. According to the "4·2·3" (4 pillars, 2 markets, 3 carriages) development strategy released by Geely Commercial Vehicle Group, the "3 carriages" include the construction of methanol fuel production and filling system with liquid hydrogen energy methanol power as the core.

The relevant person in charge of Hanma Technology said in an interview with reporters: "The 13-liter methanol engine jointly developed by Hanma Technology and Geely Commercial Vehicle Group has a power of up to 480 horsepower, emissions meet the requirements of China VI, and has completed two rounds of durability tests and engine announcements, and plans to carry out a small number of trial sales in some specific areas in May this year, and it is expected to be put on the market in batches at the end of this year." ”

It is understood that the fuel cell team of Yutong Group has undertaken 14 various scientific and technological research projects, with a total investment of more than 600 million yuan and 162 invention patents, covering various fields such as vehicles, power systems, fuel cell engines, on-board hydrogen systems and hydrogen refueling stations.

The relevant person in charge of Yutong Group told reporters: "The products developed so far have fully met the needs of diverse environment operations such as plains, mountains and plateaus. The fuel cell system can achieve -30 °C low temperature start, and promises 8 years / 800,000 kilometers of buses, trucks 7 years / 1 million kilometers of warranty, relying on the fuel cell system health status platform to fully ensure the customer's experience. ”

For the development of new energy commercial vehicles and multiple tracks, Cui Dongshu said in an interview with reporters that for the exploration of new fuel technologies for commercial vehicles, there are currently no more mature lines in the world, so there is a situation of "a hundred flowers blooming". "New energy commercial vehicles should not be too aggressive in the promotion process, but also consider the cost of the problem, from the national five, six to the promotion of new energy vehicles, but also pay attention to the acceptance of costs at the consumer end."