Li Bin exchanged green onions for salt, and Weilai stalled at the high end.
Author | Zhang Yi
Edit | Zhao Jian
2022 is a hurdle for the future. Before the sales pressure, after the vehicle was discontinued, it can be said that the blessing is unmatched, and the disaster is not alone.
In the first three months of the year, the sales volume of Weilai Automobile not only ranked at the bottom of the "Wei Xiaoli", but also was overtaken by the latecomers, directly falling out of the top three of the list of new forces.
In January, Weilai ranked fourth in the list of new car-making forces with sales of 9652, and the top three on the list were Xiaopeng, Ideal and Nezha, and the sales of all three exceeded 10,000 vehicles.
In February, due to the Spring Festival shutdown, raw material price increases and other factors, the sales of new car-making forces have declined, even so, the top three ideals in the February list, Nezha, Xiaopeng also achieved a staggering increase of 265.8%, 255%, 180% respectively, and once again ranked fourth, sales increased by only 9.9% year-on-year.
On April 1, the new car-making forces announced March sales according to the custom, this time Weilai did not even keep the fourth position, Xiaopeng returned to the first place with sales of 15414, Nezha ranked second, ideal third, it is worth noting that zero-run cars ranked fourth with sales of 10059, an increase of 908.9% year-on-year, Weilai's ranking slipped to fifth, and sales in March were 9985. In fact, this is not the first time that Weilai has become the fifth. In the list of new forces in October 2021, Xiaopeng, Nezha and Ideal occupied the top three, and it was WM Automobile that squeezed to the fourth place, and Weilai's sales ranked fifth.
In addition, the bad news of Nio Auto since April does not stop there.
On April 9, NIO announced the suspension of vehicle production, because due to the impact of the epidemic, NIO's supply chain partners in Jilin, Shanghai, Jiangsu and other places have stopped production, and the current parts inventory has been exhausted and has to stop production. It can be predicted that the subsequent production and sales volume of NIO Automobile may further decline.
On April 10, Weilai announced that the starting price of ES8, ES6, EC6 models was raised by 10,000 yuan, and the Rental Service Fee for Bass long-lasting batteries was raised from 1480 yuan / month to 1680 yuan / month, under the double attack of raw materials and the epidemic, Weilai, who previously claimed not to increase prices, had to "hit the face at the speed of light", Li Bin left a message in the Weilai APP "The price increase is also forced, please understand."
Once upon a time, the list of new car-making forces was just a game of "Wei Xiaoli" chasing each other, and in the first half of 2021, Weilai still sat at the top of the list, and won the first place in the sales list of new forces for 21 consecutive months. Nowadays, the times have changed, the list of new car-making forces has long been not only the world of "Wei Xiaoli" three-legged, the second echelon of Nezha and zero running have emerged to form a new situation of "five generals", and at the same time, Weilai's sales lag seems to have become the norm.
Since its inception, WEILAI Has aimed at BBA (BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi), positioning itself as an electric version of high-end luxury cars. Li Bin has publicly stated: "Basically, cities with BBA and Lexus stores, we will definitely cover, this is the basic strategy in the future."
Does NIO's high-end EV road still work?
1. Can a high-end strategy protect the city?
In November 2016, the NIO EP9 electric supercar was unveiled in London, the EP9 electric supercar is nio's first model, with outstanding performance to refresh the speed record of major international tracks, helping NIO to set a good brand tone. However, the EP9, which costs $1.48 million, is not for mass production and has a much higher symbolic significance than commercial significance.
At present, NIO has delivered four models for the market, namely ES8, ES6, EC6 and ET7. In 2017, WEIO's first mass-produced model ES8 was officially released, the ES8 belongs to the medium and large luxury SUV, which is priced at 468,000 yuan, directly benchmarking BMW X5, Audi Q7, Mercedes-Benz GLE. In 2018, NIO's mid-size SUV, the ES6, went on the market, with a current starting price of 358,000 yuan, which is benchmarked with BMW X3, Audi Q5L, and Mercedes-Benz GRC. At the 2019 Shenzhen NIO Day, WEILAI released the mid-size coupe SUV - EC6, with a starting price of 368,000 yuan, benchmarking BMW X4 and Audi SQ5. The ET7 sedan unveiled on NIO Day 2020, starting at 448,000 yuan, has begun slow delivery on March 28 this year, compared with bmw 5 series, Audi A6 and Mercedes-Benz E-class.
From the perspective of the comprehensiveness of the model and the unit price, WEILAI is at the top of the new car-making forces, and the average starting price of the four models on sale is as high as 410,500 yuan. In contrast, the average starting price of Xiaopeng P7, P5 and G3i is 195,600 yuan, of which the high-end sedan P7 has the highest unit price, starting from 239,900 yuan; ideal car's only SUV model, ideal ONE, has a unified starting price of 349,800 yuan.
Weilai's high-end strategy is also reflected in the service, often referred to as the "Haidilao" of the car circle, known for serving car owners at any cost. Chen Cheng (pseudonym), a post-90s Weilai car owner, told "Jiazi Lightyear": "The reason why I chose Weilai on the one hand is because in the context of 'carbon neutrality', electric vehicles conform to the trend of the times, but Weilai is much stronger than other new power brands in terms of style and service, and I think the four and a half million yuan is worth spending." ”
Chen Cheng said that riders identify with WEILAI is nothing more than because of the driving experience, after-sales service, and community atmosphere, throwing aside the subjective factor of driving experience, WEILAI has indeed achieved "customer first" in terms of service, and its after-sales thoughtfulness is absolutely incomparable to other power brands, and the benefits provided by NIO House to car owners are far more than other car companies, in addition to drinks, snacks, fitness, flower arrangement and other activities are basically every day, the community is well organized, many car owners can come four or five times a week, it can be said that NIO In addition to taking on sales responsibilities, House is also the third space for car owners.
In addition, Weilai's former employee David (pseudonym) communicated with "Jia Zi Lightyear", David believes that in addition to high prices and good service, Weilai's high-end is also reflected in the convenience, BaaS (Battery as a Service) is the embodiment of convenience, because for now, only the efficiency of power exchange can be comparable to the refueling of oil trucks, Weilai is also a leading trend in power exchange technology, and it is the "world's first person" who successfully uses the power exchange model in the field of passenger cars on a large scale.
When the domestic power exchange model is only suitable for small-scale operating vehicles, WEIlai chose to face the difficulties and officially launched the passenger car power exchange model in 2018. At present, NIO's substation technology has accumulated more than 1400 patents, as of now, NIO has built more than 900 substations in China, covering 31 provincial-level administrative regions and 194 prefecture-level cities, and plans to build more than 3,000 substations in China in 2025.
In terms of offline services, WEILAI has adopted a higher-cost direct operation model, with 380 service outlets nationwide, as well as "900+" substations and "745+" supercharging stations, far exceeding Xiaopeng and Ideal. Ideal Auto currently has 263 service centers nationwide, as well as 478 retail centers and showrooms; Xiaopeng self-operated supercharging stations have 757 on the line, destination charging stations have 176 on the line, service outlets adopt both direct operation and authorization models, and the 2021 financial report shows that Xiaopeng operates 357 retail stores in 129 cities in China.
Adhering to this "very heavy" business method has greatly guaranteed the service quality of WEILAI, but this is also reflected in the surge in sales costs, and the annual sales expenditure of WEILAI from 2019 to 2021 is 9.024 billion yuan, 14.585 billion yuan and 29.315 billion yuan, respectively, with a compound growth rate of 48%.
It is true that high-quality services have further clarified THE high-end positioning of Weilai, but it has also buried hidden dangers for Weilai Automobile.
2. What is the bottleneck?
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the domestic retail sales of new energy vehicles in 2021 were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year, and it is more noteworthy that the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers in 2021 reached 15.7%, which was significantly higher than the penetration rate of 5.8% in 2020. It can be said that 2021 is a year of new energy vehicle outbreaks, but the future has not seized the opportunity.
On the one hand, in 2021, Weilai has no new models delivered throughout the year, and in "Wei Xiaoli", the ideal upgrade of the ideal ONE, Xiaopeng released a cost-effective P5 car, Weilai's sales are all supported by ES8, ES6, EC6 three old models, 2021 Weilai sales pressure is largely related to its new model "empty window period".
On the other hand, the high pricing of Weilai Automobile also means a high threshold, according to the statistics of Cheju Network, the cumulative sales of mainstream luxury cars in China in 2021 will be 3.9414 million, accounting for only 15% of the total sales of automobiles. If it is subdivided into the field of electric vehicles, the market will be further narrowed.
Although luxury EVs are good, but the high-end market space is limited after all, Niolai's brand high positioning is likely to face the low ceiling of sales, which can be seen from Weilai's recent delivery data.
Since 2020, domestic new energy vehicle deliveries have increased from 42,000 units in January 2020 to 443,000 units in March 2022, with a compound monthly growth rate of 17.01%, and NIO's deliveries in January 2020 were 1,900 units and 9,985 deliveries in March 2022, with a compound growth rate of 11.70%. Comparing the above two sets of data, it is not difficult to find that Weilai's delivery growth is much lower than the domestic average. Although NIO's delivery volume in the first three months of 2022 has increased year-on-year, compared with other new car-making forces, the growth is relatively slow, so that the future monthly delivery ranking among the new forces has declined all the way.
Is NIO's delivery unable to keep up because of a shortage of orders?
When Weilai released its 2021 financial report, Li Bin had said that the order volume of NIO's flagship coupe ET7 exceeded 15,000 units. According to the estimated pick-up time of the 8 weeks displayed on the official website, and the delivery volume in the first three months, the total order volume of NIO EC6, ES6 and ES8 is around 20,000 (the existing order volume = booking cycle * monthly average delivery volume, taking the average number of January and March 2022, february sales are seriously affected by the Spring Festival and are not included in the calculation). The ET5 model released by Weilai at the end of last year began to sell at 328,000, which is the most "cost-effective" model in Weilai at present, and according to the reasonable speculation of price and supply and demand, the order volume of ET5 may be higher than that of ET7. Therefore, NIO is not short of orders.
Let's look at production capacity. In March last year, Weilai had stopped production for 5 days due to the lack of cores, until now the lack of cores in the automotive industry has also existed, the rise in raw material prices also hints at the reduction of raw material supply, coupled with a wave of serious epidemics emerging from all over the country in March, supply chain enterprises located in Shanghai, Jilin and other places have stopped production, resulting in the exhaustion of parts inventory, Weilai announced on April 9 to suspend vehicle production, and slowly resumed production after 5 days. On the whole, Weilai does not lack orders, but lacks production capacity, specifically, the lack of control over the supply chain.
Although the tight supply of raw materials and the epidemic have had an objective impact on new energy vehicles, the future capabilities in supply chain control are likely to be far inferior to those of friendly businessmen. At the end of 2019, Tesla began to officially put into operation at the Shanghai Gigafactory, according to Shell Finance reported in February, Tesla has begun to prepare for the opening of a second factory in China; following the Beijing and Changzhou factories, according to the Financial Associated Press in February, the third plant of Ideal Automobile is about to settle in Chongqing; in March 2020, Xiaopeng's Zhaoqing intelligent factory has also been completed and put into operation, and the new factories in Wuhan and Guangzhou are expected to be put into operation in 2022.
On the other hand, Weilai has been oem by Jianghuai Automobile since its establishment in 2017. On March 4, 2021, NIO and Jianghuai Automobile established a joint venture company, and the registered capital of the joint venture company "Jianglai Manufacturing" is planned to be 500 million yuan. Among them, Jianghuai Automobile intends to subscribe 255 million yuan, accounting for 51% of the total registered capital; WEILAI Automobile intends to subscribe 245 million yuan, accounting for 49% of the total registered capital, of which Jianghuai Automobile has the main right to speak. According to "Koshi Lightyear", the EV7 coupe just delivered by WEILAI is printed with the "Jacques Automobile" logo in a conspicuous place on the rear.
In fact, in the initial period, Weilai also tried to build its own factory, but after the failure of the self-construction plan, it could only seek cooperation. In 2017, NIO signed a framework agreement and memorandum with the Shanghai Jiading District Government and relevant units to establish an advanced base for NEW ENERGY ELECTRIC VEHICLEs, but NIO's 2018 financial report shows that NIO has reached an agreement with relevant parties to cancel the plan signed in 2017 to build an independent factory in Jiading, Shanghai.
On April 29, 2021, Li Bin announced that Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Electric Vehicle Industrial Park (NeoPark) has officially started construction, which will be jointly planned and constructed by Hefei City and the future. According to autohome reports in 2021, NEO Park is positioned as a world-class intelligent electric vehicle industrial park, and Hefei will increase its support for the intelligent electric vehicle industry, introduce more high-quality enterprises in the industrial chain to settle in the park, and provide supporting policy support for construction, capital, and talents.
However, the official production date of NeoPark is not yet known, under the influence of various factors, WEILAI's current production capacity is seriously limited, "Jiazi Lightyear" has communicated with NIO sales and car friends, and found that since last year, NIO's car pick-up cycle has far exceeded the official website's estimated 8 weeks, therefore, the actual order volume of NIO is likely to far exceed the estimation of "Koshi Lightyear", and its delivery pressure is self-evident.
In addition, the power exchange technology that has always made Weilai proud is actually facing a bottleneck. In reality, between charging and power exchange, the market choice is a charging mode that is lower cost and easier to roll out. Of course, the advantage of power exchange is that electric vehicles can have the same energy speed as fuel vehicles, but at present, the difficulty of implementation is also obvious, such as high cost of station construction, difficulty in coordinating the unified standards of car companies, mechanical structure is not strong enough, etc. The Israeli company Batty Place, which is committed to universal power exchange, is a martyr. Tesla also tried the power exchange function after launching the Model S, but because of the cost, mechanical structure and other reasons, it was finally compromised by the reverse charging mode.
Compared with the market's general lack of optimism about the power exchange model, what is more worrying is that from the financial report data of the past three years, Weilai's investment in research and development in recent years is very conservative, which is in stark contrast to the large-scale investment in sales expenditure. From 2019 to 2021, NIO's annual revenue was 7.825 billion yuan, 16.260 billion yuan and 36.1 billion yuan respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 68.66%; in the same period, NIO's R&D expenditure was 4.429 billion yuan, 2.488 billion yuan and 4.592 billion yuan, accounting for 49.08%, 17.03% and 15.66% of revenue, respectively, and the ratio of R&D revenue has been declining.
In the face of the small luxury car market, vehicle sales can not go up, the power exchange model can not push away the three big problems, what to do in the future?
3. What about the future?
The domestic EV (Electric Vehicle) market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and car companies such as Nezha, Zero Run, and BYD, which have more "cost-effective" advantages, have gradually eaten up a large number of domestic consumers' demand for new energy vehicles, while Weilai, which has a higher price and a higher style, seems to be more and more ungrounded in the domestic market atmosphere.
Therefore, it seems natural to do the low-end market of the sinking brand. In response, WEILAI has already reacted.
At the end of 2021, ET5 debuted at the fourth NIO Day gala of Weilai, which is the most cost-effective model in the history of Weilai, starting from a retail price of 328,000 yuan before subsidies, if you use baaS services, the entry threshold of ET5 can be reduced to 258,000 yuan. The model and price of ET5 basically coincide with Tesla Model 3 and BMW 3 Series, in a sense, the launch of Model 3 and BMW 3 Series is a symbol of the brand's overture to the mid-market, and the future ET5 also has the same purpose.
In addition, WEILAI's sinking plan does not stop at ET5. As early as the second quarter of 2021, Li Bin said: "Weilai Automobile will enter the mass market through the new brand, and has established a core team, while emphasizing that the Weilai brand will not launch too cheap cars." In addition, Li Bin also mentioned that this new brand will be more like the relationship between Audi and Volkswagen or the relationship between Lexus and Toyota, in terms of competition, Li Bin said that the new brand will not enter the range of Wuling Hongguang, because they have done very well.
At the march 2022 earnings call, Weilai CEO Li Bin said that the core team of the new brand for the mass market has been completed, the strategic direction and development plan have been clarified, and the first batch of products has entered the key research and development stage. Li Bin said: "What we see now is that what the mass market is really lacking is very competitive (smart electric) products. We want products that can provide better products and services at a lower price than Tesla, which is our goal. ”
In addition to introducing more affordable products, improvements in manufacturing technology can also help further increase production capacity and reduce costs in the future.
According to the information released by NIO at NIO Day 2021, after adopting the integrated casting process, the weight of the rear floor will be reduced by 30%, the trunk space will be increased by 11L, and the torsional stiffness of the vehicle will reach 34,000 N·m/deg. On October 18, 2021, NIO announced that it has successfully developed a heat-free material that can be used to manufacture large die castings, which is the first time that a Chinese car company has verified and applied the material to large structural parts, and the new material will be applied to NIO's second-generation platform models (ET5, ET7).
In fact, the first to eat the sweetness in die casting technology is Tesla, Weilai and Xiaopeng have followed suit. Through the integrated die casting technology, the 70 parts required for the model 3 rear baseplate are compressed into 2 on the Model Y, which significantly reduces costs and increases efficiency. According to Oxcart Network, die-casting technology has reduced the production time of the same components from at least two hours to 80-90 seconds, reduced the weight of the rear of the vehicle by 30%, and reduced the production cost of each vehicle by 20%-40%.
In addition, going to sea may help WEILAI gain a larger market.
Norway is NIO's first stop. On May 6, 2021, Li Bin spoke at the NIO strategy conference: "Norway is one of the most friendly countries for new energy vehicles, so NIO chose Norway as its first overseas market layout. ”
Continuing to expand in Europe is the next step for NIO, which officially said it plans to expand its business territory to five European countries, including Germany, in 2022. Li Bin said at the press conference, "All along, NIO's goal has been to build a global brand that provides high-quality products and services for global users. ”
Norway and even the whole of Europe are highly environmentally conscious and highly receptive to electric vehicles. According to niu technology survey, in Norway, consumers can be exempted from sales tax and 25% value-added tax when buying electric vehicles, and electric vehicles can enjoy free charging, exemption from urban tolls and public parking fees after they are on the road, and more importantly, imported electric vehicles sold to Norway can enjoy the import tariff exemption policy.
The European EV market is very mature, especially in Norway. According to Statista statistics, as of 2021, the penetration rate of pure electric vehicles in Norway is as high as 64.5%, ranking first in the world, and the countries with the second to fifth places in the penetration rate of electric vehicles are Germany (13.6%), China (12.7%), the United Kingdom (11.6%), and France (9.8%), so it is reasonable for Chinese electric vehicle brands to enter Norway and Europe. In fact, as early as Weilai, there have been many Chinese electric vehicle brands successfully entering the European market, and Norway is often the first stop for friendly businessmen.
(Global ranking of electric vehicle penetration, image source: statista)
On December 22, 2020, Xiaopeng landed in Norway and began to deliver G3 smart pure electric SUV to users who have been distributed in 28 towns in Norway, and the following year Xiaopeng set up a European headquarters in Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, and offices in Denmark, Germany, Norway and Sweden. In May 2020, AIWAYS Auto exported 500 AIWAYS U5s to France as rental cars, and gradually landed in Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other European countries in August 2020.
BYD, SAIC, Hongqi and other car companies have also successfully established themselves in Europe, which shows the tolerance of China's electric vehicle brands in Europe.
On the basis of the pioneering of the land by predecessors, in fact, Weilai's European strategy is taking a proven and feasible path. The Motley Fool, a well-known financial media in the United States, made the following comments on Nio's going to sea, doing business in Europe will help NIO gain wider recognition around the world, establish its brand status at the same time will also help NIO establish its identity as an international player in the industry, and in the long run, the developed market will help NIO to obtain better profits than the domestic market, and overall, the electric vehicle manufacturer's entry into the European market indicates growth.
In November last year, NIO announced the signing of a strategic cooperation agreement with Shell Group to open the Shell European charging network to NIO users in terms of charging facilities, and the two sides will carry out cooperation in the field of electric vehicle energy on a global scale. In China, the two sides will build a total of 100 substations by 2025, and in Europe, the two sides plan to start the construction and operation of substations in 2022. In addition, according to an interview with Weilai vice president Zhang Hui quoted by the Financial Times, WEIO is negotiating with domestic and international automakers on the licensing of battery replacement systems.
If cooperation and negotiation are as expected by NIO, then it is likely to establish an extremely large international charging and replacing service network in the future, and the service objects of NIO BaaS will not be limited to future car owners, but will become an infrastructure for providing standardized services for all electric vehicles like gas stations.
The era of the market spending money on new energy vehicles has passed, and cost management has become particularly important, especially for Weilai. With the VAM contract in front, the unfavorable start of 2022 has sounded the alarm for Weilai. Previously, it was reported that after receiving investment from the Hefei government, hefei investors required NIO China to submit an IPO within 48 months after receiving the investment and complete the listing within 60 months, and the control of NIO Automobile or NIO China could not change.
In addition to the IPO, THE PERFORMANCE COMMITMENTS THAT WEILAI NEEDS TO COMPLETE also include: revenue of 14.8 billion yuan in 2020 (listing 3 models), revenue of 120 billion yuan in 2024 (listing 6-8 models), total revenue of 420 billion yuan from 2020 to 2025, and total tax revenue of 7.8 billion yuan. Through tax estimates, if you want to complete the betting in the future, you need to complete about 370 billion yuan of revenue in the next four years, with an average revenue of more than 90 billion yuan for the first time. But it should be known that in the case of an increase of more than 100% year-on-year, WEILAI's annual revenue in 2021 is only 36.136 billion yuan.
Just a few days ago, Li Bin, who was trapped at home due to the epidemic, was forced to "exchange green onions for salt" in the WeChat group due to the shortage of living materials. In the current future, after spending money on the high-end to earn face, it is also time to care about "chai rice oil and salt".
END.