Two years ago, under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and led by the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" was released, and perhaps no one would have imagined that in March 2022, it would have completed 155% of its 2025 new energy penetration target of 20%.
In 2020, most people would not have thought that the growth rate of new energy would be so amazing
In March 2022, passenger car sales fell 15.1% to 1.434 million units, while the new energy passenger car market grew 1.4 times to 444,500 units, with a penetration rate of 31.0%, according to the Shanghai Insurance Data for March 2022.
However, a closer look will find that the "Matthew effect" between different types of car companies is very exaggerated, the new energy penetration rate of independent brands (including SAIC-GM-Wuling) is as high as 52.7%, the new energy penetration rate of joint venture car companies (excluding Tesla) is only 4.9%, and the new energy penetration rate of independent brands has exceeded that of joint venture brands by 10 times.
Specifically, looking at the TOP 20 list of new energy brands in March, in addition to the Volkswagen brand entering the top 10 with the 8th place, only BMW and Mercedes-Benz ranked 18th and 20th respectively.
01
BYD + Tesla: The situation of "two superpowers" has been formed
At present, in the domestic new energy market, the situation of "two super and more strong" has basically formed, "two super" naturally refers to BYD and Tesla, of which BYD not only achieved sales of 10 w+, but also announced the suspension of fuel vehicles, it is said that it has accumulated more than 400,000 orders, this year to complete the target of 1.2 million vehicles is not a problem, and even hope to impact the target of 1.5 million vehicles.
On March 22, Tesla's Berlin plant officially opened
Tesla has not released new cars this year, but it has been good news, the Berlin factory opened in March, two weeks later the Texas headquarters factory also began to open, in the first quarter of the world delivered 310,000 new cars, an increase of 68%, this year plans to complete the global target of 1.5 million new vehicles.
At the same time, there is only one factor that determines the sales volume of the "two supers", that is, its own production.
In addition to the "two superpowers", the representative of "how strong" is first of all a new force, and tells us with practical performance what is called "the spark of a star, which can burn the plains". In the brand's TOP 20 list, the new power brand accounted for six seats, adding up to a total of 49,631 vehicles, accounting for 11.1% of the total sales of new energy.
The second production car, the T03, which runs zero, is doing well in the market
Specifically, in "Wei Xiaoli", the results of Xiaopeng's 15,492 vehicles have begun to lead, the ideal 11,067 vehicles have ranked second, the results of Weilai's 9,810 vehicles have ranked third, and the results of Nezha's 10,605 vehicles and zero-run 7,744 vehicles are also very bright, and the team of new forces is still growing.
Feng Xingya, General Manager of GAC Group
Among the traditional independent brands, the most outstanding is GAC New Energy, and the sales volume of nearly 20,000 also makes Feng Xingya, general manager of GAC Group, have the confidence to say that he wants to change the current "Wei Xiaoli" to "Ai Xiaowei".
With China's "special supply" ID.6, the public does not attach great importance to the Chinese market
Among the joint venture brands, many brands have chosen to "lie flat", of which the hardest is volkswagen, and at present, "North and South Volkswagen" already has five IDs. Models, of which ID.4 and ID.6 sales hovered around 5,000 and 3,000 units respectively, although the results are not eye-catching, but they are already the best among the joint venture brands, which also reflects the dilemma of the joint venture brand transformation in China.
02
Pure electricity dominates, and DM-i and range extenders drive PHEV growth
Among the 444,000 new energy sales in March, pure electricity occupied the absolute mainstream of 362,000 units, accounting for 8.5% of the share, and THE SALES OF PHEV (including range extenders) reached 82,000 units, although the share was less than pure electricity, but it increased by 1.5 times year-on-year.
In the early days of the development of new energy in the mainland, PHEV models and pure electric models have been playing back and forth, and even selling better, because in the early days of new energy subsidies are very rich, car companies only need to use the original structural changes are very small P2 architecture hybrid can be sold, Europe is currently in a similar stage.
IdealLY ONE, a car accounts for about 70% of the range increase
However, with the advancement of technology and the decline of subsidies, everyone has become more and more dissatisfied with this kind of hybridization that becomes oily tiger at a loss of electricity, expensive and frustrated, so the share of PHEV in new energy has been falling rapidly, until the listing of the ideal ONE and the advent of BYD DM-i.
Among the top ten models on the list, BYD DM-i models occupy four seats and become the absolute king of the PHEV field, but its competitors are also catching up quickly, Chery's Kunpeng e+, Geely's Thor hybrid, Great Wall's lemon DHT, etc. all want to share a piece of the pie after the hybrid technology matures.
Relying on Huawei, the M5 sold well in March
In addition, although Ideal has only one car, the sales of more than 11,000 units have contributed greatly to THE PHEV and the extender, and the other Qention M5 with range extender power is also close to 3,000, ranking sixth. Although the technology of extending the program is not advanced, and its upper limit is not high, the structure is relatively simple, and the lower limit is relatively high, which is a good choice for "new players".
In addition, Mercedes-Benz E-class PHEV, BMW 5 Series PHEV and Changan UNI-K PHEV three P2 architecture hybrid models have a sales volume of 1,000+, at present, for limited license cities, the choice of the above three cars mainly focus on the "green card" and "purchase tax exemption" policy dividends, the future will be gradually marginalized.
03
HEV strong mix into a dark horse, the future may be comparable to shoulder to shoulder mixing
Although HEV mixing does not belong to the category of new energy, but with its excellent fuel-saving characteristics, it is also favored in the era of "9 yuan oil price", and the data shows that heV mixed models sold 67,000 vehicles in March, an increase of 50% year-on-year.
At present, the strong mix is mainly "two fields" in the layout, of which Toyota has sold 45,000 vehicles, Honda has sold 16,000 vehicles, and the two occupy nearly 90% of the market. Mainly because of the early layout of the "two fields", coupled with long-term publicity, toyota THS and Honda i-MMD hybrid has been deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
The Geely Star-Vietnam L Hybrid Edition uses a planetary gear power shunt similar to the THS, but two more gears than the Toyota
However, independent brands are also following up, a number of models under the Great Wall WEY, such as Macchiato, latte have launched DHT models, in addition to Geely Xingyue L Raytheon hybrid has also been listed, both in the hybrid technology is not lost to "two fields", and even surpassed, of which the Great Wall Lemon DHT compared to Honda i-MMD has one more gear, Geely Raytheon hybrid than Toyota THS two more gears.
According to the plan, the new energy subsidy and purchase tax exemption policy will end at the end of the year, if there is no special policy to extend it, the cost of PHEV next year or will rise by 2-3 million yuan, no large battery HEV will rely on cost advantages to obtain a wave of large development.
04
Epidemic + price increases, new energy sales in the second quarter are not optimistic
Since the second half of last year, battery-grade lithium carbonate has begun to "one price a day", from the initial 50,000 yuan / ton or so to 500,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of this year, other raw materials such as cobalt, copper foil, aluminum foil also have different degrees of price increases, so since the end of last year, more than 20 car companies, 50 models of collective price increase, some models such as zero-run C11, the price increase of up to 30,000 yuan.
In March, the sales volume of new energy still rose sharply by 80.9% month-on-month, and Cui Dongshu, secretary of the Association, pointed out that the delivery of new energy vehicle companies in March was generally orders at the end of last year and January-February this year, so the price increase had little impact on the actual delivery volume in the first three months. He expects that the impact of price increases on sales will not really be felt until May.
He Xiaopeng's circle of friends expressed concern about the automobile industry under the epidemic
In addition, He Xiaopeng and Yu Chengdong have said in the circle of friends recently that the current epidemic has caused a lot of impact on the automotive supply chain in Shanghai and surrounding areas, and if it is impossible to resume work, the national vehicle companies may face suspension of production in May.
The good news is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has recently dispatched a working group in Shanghai to give priority to ensuring that 666 key enterprises such as automobile manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuits resume work and production, and the production and sales of automobiles in the second quarter should not fall too badly.
Finally, starting from next year, new energy subsidies will be completely withdrawn, and the dividend of free purchase tax will also end, and it is expected that the growth rate of new energy will also begin to slow down.
Author: Giraffe
Edit: Giraffes
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