(Report Producer/Author: Northeast Securities, Chen Yulu, Zhao Zhe)
1. The singularity of the growth period of new energy vehicles is coming
The growth prospects of the new energy vehicle industry are broad. Affected by domestic and foreign environmental protection and industrial policy support, application-level breakthroughs in electric vehicle-related technologies, and increased consumer acceptance of electric vehicles, the global new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. In 2021, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles worldwide will increase by 6.5 million units, an increase of 108% year-on-year; China's new energy vehicle sales will be 3.5 million units, an increase of 165% year-on-year; and the domestic market penetration rate will increase rapidly from 5.2% in 2020 to 13.4% in 2021.
From the model point of view, Tesla Model 3 and Model Y are still the best-selling pure electric models, domestic car companies have made rapid progress, Wuling Hongguang's main low-end models have been popular, ANDD has ranked second largest new energy vehicle company in the world relying on the Dynasty series of new energy models. New energy vehicles compared with traditional fuel vehicles have many differences, based on the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry, the new industrial chain opportunities can not be ignored, of which the field of thermal management is very conducive to the intervention of traditional home appliance companies. We believe that 2021 or will become the singularity of the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle industry, the industry will quickly enter the growth period in the next 5-10 years, the judgment basis is mainly based on the following three aspects:
1.1. Consumer side: safety, comfort and economic advantages are highlighted
As a means of transportation, the competitive advantage of the three basic needs of new energy vehicles has begun to emerge. We believe that in addition to high-end cars, whether it is a fuel vehicle or a new energy vehicle, the core consumer demands of mass consumers for automobiles are mainly three: safety, comfort and economy. Models that can better meet these three core needs will be favored by mass consumers. Because the electric vehicle architecture is quite different from that of fuel vehicles, it also brings two new high-value industrial chains (intelligent driving and thermal management). The higher degree of electronic and electrification of electric vehicles can better improve the comfort experience of the driving process, increase manual interaction and road safety warnings through chips and intelligent driving systems, reduce the probability of traffic accidents, and form a competitive advantage for fuel vehicles. In addition, the battery cost of new energy vehicles accounts for 40%, its working environment and charging and discharging need to maintain a suitable temperature; motors and electronic control systems are also facing temperature management that traditional fuel vehicles do not have; due to the different architectures of refrigeration and heating, temperature regulation in the cockpit is also urgently needed to be solved, and the above needs also bring new growth opportunities to the new energy vehicle thermal management market.
The safety of new energy vehicles has been continuously enhanced. With the continuous progress of the production process of new energy vehicles, safety has been comparable to that of fuel vehicles with a long history of technological precipitation. In terms of road safety, according to the crash test results of The China Insurance Research Institute, the overall safety performance of the 2019 domestic Tesla Model 3 is no less than that of Mercedes-Benz and BMW fuel vehicles produced at the same price and similar years, especially the main frame 25% and the side impact score are very good; compared with the main cost-effective Toyota Asian Dragon, the overall safety performance of Tesla is not inferior, but after the Asian Dragon's low-speed collision damage, the maintenance cost is more expensive.
The comfort of new energy vehicles has been greatly improved. With the advancement of battery technology, the current domestic hot pure electric models full power endurance is basically more than 450km, can meet the needs of daily commuting and peripheral short trips, although the charging time is still longer than refueling, but the mileage anxiety that restricts the comfort experience is greatly alleviated. In terms of driving comfort, the most intuitive feeling is that the tram starts to accelerate quickly, because there is no gearbox, the power response is fast and the output is smoother; due to the different chassis structure, the tram chassis is more stable, the member space layout is more optimized, the cargo capacity is larger, and the driving is quieter, and the air conditioning temperature adjustment in the cockpit is more accurate. Thanks to the higher degree of electronics and electrification, it is more worry-free and convenient to maneuver under the intelligent driver assistance system.
The economic advantages of new energy vehicles are significant. Compared with the Current domestic hot-selling BYD Han EV, Tesla Model 3, Xiaopeng P7 and the more cost-effective Toyota Camry, the purchase price of the hot-selling pure electric model is comparable to that of the Toyota Camry after considering subsidies, and the insurance premium (according to the average of the three years of uninsured) is not much different. However, the cost of daily maintenance (using the average of three years of maintenance cycle) and the cost of use (20,000 kilometers per year) are much lower than those of the Toyota Camry. In addition, if the cost of oil truck licenses in first-tier cities is considered, the economy of the current new energy vehicles has a greater advantage than that of oil vehicles.
1.2. Policy side: Major countries support the new energy vehicle industry
China's short-term subsidies have declined, and long-term support has not changed. In the 2022 domestic new energy vehicle subsidy policy, in the case of the overall subsidy technical indicator system and threshold remain unchanged, the subsidy standard will decline by 30% compared with 2021; the subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% for urban buses, road passenger transport, taxis, sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airports and vehicles in the field of party and government organs. The subsidy for pure electric passenger cars 300-400 kilometers has been reduced to 9100 yuan, and the subsidy for plug-in hybrid models will be 4800 yuan, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized. In the short term, subsidies have declined, but the policy pays more attention to structural adjustment, which helps high-end models to obtain subsidies, and ensures the stability of traditional car sales, which is conducive to the transformation of car companies. In the long run, new energy vehicles are a strategic emerging industry sector in the national 14th Five-Year Plan, and the "14th Five-Year Plan for Modern Energy System" issued by the National Energy Administration also proposes that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for about 20% by 2025.
Short-term subsidies in Europe have changed less and carbon emissions standards have become increasingly stringent. The main countries for the growth of new energy vehicle sales in Europe in 2022 are britain, Germany and France, of which the German bicycle subsidy will be extended by one year to the end of 2022, and France will be reduced to 1000 euros in July 2022, and the British subsidy policy has not changed significantly. We believe that the impact of short-term subsidy changes is small, and the development of the new energy vehicle industry should pay more attention to long-term logic: (1) In order to reduce the carbon emission standards of automobiles and promote the development of electric vehicles, Europe has introduced a super points policy. The policy regulates carbon emissions
1.3. Production side: Traditional car companies accelerate strategic transformation
Traditional car companies have begun to electrify the transformation. In July 2021, Volkswagen of Germany released a new strategy to accelerate sustainable electrification and intelligent transformation, planning to increase the market share of pure electric vehicles in Europe to more than 70% in 2030, accounting for 50% of the Us and American markets; BMW plans to achieve pure electric sales in 2025 more than 10 times higher than in 2020, with pure electric models accounting for at least 50% of total deliveries in 2030; Mercedes-Benz plans to account for 50% of pure electric and plug-in hybrid models in 2025, 2030 Only pure electric models are sold in 2018. Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation announced a more radical transformation plan in December 2021, planning to launch all-electric models in 2030 for one-third of new cars sold worldwide (about 3.5 million) pure electric models, Lexus becoming a pure electric brand, and showing 16 electric models expected to be launched in 2025-2026; Honda plans to launch all models after 2030 are pure electric and hybrid, and no more fuel vehicles. Major domestic car companies such as Great Wall, Changan, Geely, SAIC and BYD have also accelerated the penetration of electrified models.
The number of models available in the industry continues to increase, and Tesla's production capacity continues to increase. Tesla, the leader of this round of new energy vehicle industry revolution, is expected to continue to release production capacity in global gigafactories, boosting the penetration rate of the electric vehicle industry. With the advancement of new integrated die-casting technology, Tesla's Model 3/Y production capacity at the Fremont, California, and Shanghai gigafactories is expected to increase to 800,000 and 900,000 in 2022, and the gigafactories in Berlin and Austin have also begun to land, and overall, sales are expected to exceed 3 million in 2023. With the transformation of traditional car companies and the continuous emergence of new car-making forces, in 2021 the market has successively launched more than 40 new energy vehicles, covering SUVs, cars, hybrids and mini cars, it is expected that in 2022-2023 there will be more brands and models launched in China, and the range of consumer choices will be further expanded, helping to increase market penetration. (Source: Future Think Tank)
1.4. New energy passenger car sales forecast from 2022 to 2030
The market space for new energy passenger cars is vast. As in the above analysis, the current hot-selling new energy models have a certain cost performance compared with the traditional fuel vehicles at the same price point, and are gradually favored by consumers; and the policies of various countries generally support the development of the new energy vehicle industry and begin to restrict traditional fuel vehicles; the world's major car companies have carried out strategic transformation and vigorously invested in the new energy automobile industry. In 2021, whether domestic or global, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will increase rapidly, so we believe that the industry will enter the growth period in 2022-2030, of which the passenger car market is the largest, the substitution logic is the strongest, we expect that in 2030, the domestic and global new energy passenger car penetration rate is expected to exceed 40%, and the domestic new energy vehicle sales will reach 13.64 million.
Core assumptions: (1) Annual growth rate of global passenger car sales of 0.6%; annual growth rate of domestic passenger car sales of 4.15%; (2) Sales of pure electric passenger cars and hybrid passenger cars accounted for 82% and 18% respectively ;(3) Global and domestic new energy vehicle penetration growth was high and low;
2. Thermal management of new energy vehicles: domestic substitution is promising
2.1. The necessity of thermal management of new energy vehicles
Automotive thermal management is an important component of the safe, efficient and stable operation of automobiles. The performance of the car depends not only on the performance of the parts, but also on the coordination and cooperation of the parts. Thermal management in the narrow sense mainly refers to the air conditioning system of the crew compartment, which makes the driver and passengers feel more comfortable. Since the operating temperature of each part of the car and the temperature tolerated by the material are different, the generalized thermal management needs to regulate the heat of the whole vehicle and the ambient heat from the perspective of the whole vehicle, so that each component works in the optimal temperature range. Excessive temperature of traditional fuel vehicles will lead to engine and transmission failure and failure, resulting in safety accidents, and the damage of these two components basically means that the car is scrapped. The structure of new energy vehicles is simpler than that of oil-fired vehicles, but the difficulty of thermal management has increased, and it is necessary to consider the thermal insulation and cooling of motors and electronic control systems, the thermal runaway and efficient work of power batteries, and the high energy consumption of crew compartment refrigeration and heating.
Thermal management is an important way to solve the current consumer pain points. According to the data of the "2021 China New Energy Vehicle Users Survey" of The Huge Arithmetic, when current users buy new energy vehicles, the core elements of the most concerned are the battery life, appearance, safety and use costs; and the restrictions on users' purchase are factors such as insufficient mileage, slow charging time and battery safety. Because the battery accounts for a large proportion of new energy vehicles, simply increasing the battery capacity and quantity will increase the purchase cost and charging time, and the high-voltage fast charging will increase the difficulty of battery temperature control, and the power battery has a "barrel effect", and the temperature uniformity inside the battery and between modules will also affect the battery performance and life. Excellent thermal management system can not only provide cockpit comfort, but also reduce the risk of battery thermal runaway, improve battery service life, reduce component energy consumption and improve mileage; solve consumers' concerns about endurance, safety and cost of use, which is conducive to car companies to improve market penetration and competitive advantage.
2.2. Thermal management of new energy vehicles brings a new incremental market
Fuel vehicle thermal management system = powertrain thermal management + air conditioning system. The power system of the fuel vehicle is composed of the engine and the gearbox, due to the low thermal efficiency of the engine, the thermal management of this module is mainly cooling, and the power system is cooled by oil cooling, water cooling and air cooling. The air conditioning system is relatively simple, and the heating of the cockpit only needs to introduce the residual heat of the engine into the cabin; the air conditioner is only responsible for refrigeration, and the power source of the mechanical compressor is the engine belt drive.
New energy vehicle thermal management = battery thermal management + crew compartment air conditioning system + motor electronic control thermal management. Compared with the traditional thermal management of fuel vehicles, the thermal management of electric vehicles has undergone revolutionary changes. First of all, there is no internal combustion engine, the power of the air conditioning compressor has changed from mechanical to electric, the lack of use of engine waste heat, the need to create a new stable heat source to heat and defrost; secondly, battery thermal management is also a completely new field, the motor and electronic control system and the original engine + gearbox combination is completely different. Taking air conditioning systems as an example, not only do compressors need to change, but with the use of PTC and heat pumps and the increase in system integration, the traditional refrigeration circuits are more complex, and the number of pipelines and valves is increasing more than ever.
The thermal management of new energy vehicles catalyzes a number of high-quality segments of the track. With the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the huge changes in the thermal management system, four core components have ushered in a high boom: air conditioning compressors, valves, heat exchangers and pumps. From the perspective of the three major components of the new energy vehicle thermal management system, the air conditioning system is expected to increase the number of electric compressors, PTC, electronic water pumps, electronic expansion valves, four-way reversing valves, solenoid valves and other components, and promote product updates and upgrades; compared with the previous thermal management of fuel vehicles, the three electric systems will bring about a new increase in valves, heat exchangers and pump products. We speculate that the value of the bicycle thermal management system of the traditional fuel vehicle is about 3680 yuan, the value of the plug-in hybrid bicycle thermal management system is about 6730 yuan, while the value of the pure electric (using PTC + heat pump scheme) is about 8480 yuan, and the value of the new energy vehicle thermal management system is about 1.8-2.3 times that of the traditional fuel vehicle.
2.3. Automotive thermal management market space measurement
It is estimated that the domestic new energy vehicle thermal management market will be close to 70 billion yuan in 2025, and the core segment market size will be 50 billion yuan. Since the areas with the strongest replacement logic for new energy vehicles are mainly reflected in passenger cars, according to the above passenger car sales forecast and the value of bicycle thermal management, we believe that the global passenger car thermal management market space is growing. Structurally, the scale of the fuel vehicle thermal management market is gradually shrinking, the proportion of the new energy vehicle thermal management market is increasing, and the pure tram thermal management is the mainstream. It is estimated that by 2030, the domestic new energy vehicle thermal management market will reach 111.4 billion yuan, accounting for 58.5% of the world. When calculating the subdivision track, we are relatively conservative in assuming that the price of each component remains unchanged, and it is expected that the domestic electric compressor market size will exceed 20 billion yuan in 2030, and the electronic expansion valve market size will exceed 10 billion yuan.
2.4. Technology outlook impacting the industry landscape
2.4.1. In terms of automotive air conditioning: there may be new changes in heating and refrigerant technology
At present, the heating of air conditioning of new energy vehicles mainly uses PTC electric heating. PTC electric heater is a temperature-sensitive semiconductor resistor, its resistance changes sharply with changes in humidity, when the outside temperature decreases, the resistance value decreases, and the heat generation increases accordingly. The main reason for the use of this equipment is that after the electric vehicle loses the engine heat source, it needs additional heat source replenishment. PTC's stable operation, simple structure and low cost, high pressure resistance and non-combustion safety characteristics have become a common heating scheme used in the early stage of the industry. PTC working mode is divided into air heating type and water heating type: (1) air heating directly heats the surface air, and the warm air is blown into the car through the blower to achieve warm air. The advantages are low cost and fast heating; the disadvantages are that the warm air is dry and the comfort is low, and the high-voltage PTC access to the crew compartment has certain safety risks. (2) The plumbing type has a wide coverage, using a water heater to indirectly heat the air and enter the car through the radiator. Compared with the wind-warming type, the heat loss is smaller and safer.
The contradiction between energy consumption and battery life has gradually caused the rise of heat pump air conditioners. Usually PTC power is about 6KW, each hour consumes 6 degrees of power, with a charge of 70 degrees of Weilai ES6 as an example, winter PTC warm air use for an hour, battery power consumption of about 10%, and winter power battery itself mileage attenuation, PTC-based heating will aggravate mileage anxiety. Heat pump air conditioning is the most ideal way to control the temperature of the car, because its heating is similar to that of household air conditioners, which transports the heat energy of the outside air to the occupant compartment, greatly improving the energy efficiency ratio, generally its energy efficiency is 2-3 times higher than PTC, extending the battery life by more than 20%. Moreover, through the switching of valves such as reversing four-way valves and two-way expansion valves, the function conversion of refrigeration and heating is quickly realized. But at present, the main difficulty of heat pump air conditioning is poor work efficiency in extreme low temperature environment, PTC electric heating is not affected by ambient temperature, even in the cold environment of minus 20 degrees can work stably, but will reduce the battery range by 18 to 30%. Therefore, the coexistence of PTC and heat pump will remain for a long time.
Carbon dioxide refrigerants have better low temperature performance or become the mainstream technology route. At present, there are two routes for the development of vehicle refrigerants: the first is the use of chemically synthesized zero ODP and low GWP refrigerants represented by American and Japanese car companies, such as the current R1234yf fourth-generation refrigerant, but the product is monopolized by DuPont and Honeywell patents, and the cost is relatively high; and the traditional R134a third-generation refrigerant has been banned from being used in new cars in the EU because the GWP does not meet the environmental protection requirements of the Eu. The second is the European and Korean system as the representative of the use of natural working fluid alternatives, such as R744 carbon dioxide as refrigerant, its environmental protection, refrigeration and heating performance and cost are better than R1234yf, the current Volkswagen ID series has been equipped with carbon dioxide heat pump, the main problem of this type of heat pump is that the working pressure is too large. In the long run, the low temperature heating effect of the carbon dioxide heat pump is better, which can improve the vehicle's winter mileage, and its promotion will bring about the upgrading of various components of new energy vehicles.
2.4.2. Liquid cooling may still be a long-term mainstream solution for battery thermal management
Efficient battery operation has certain requirements for ambient temperature. The efficient working temperature range of the power battery is 20-35 °C, and too low temperature (<0 °C) will lead to a decrease in battery activity, a decrease in charge and discharge power performance, and shorten the mileage; too high a temperature (>45 °C) will produce a risk of battery thermal runaway, threatening the safety of the vehicle. Battery internal temperature and temperature uniformity between battery modules affect the battery performance and cycle life, so the battery thermal management system needs a complex, fine cooling circuit, to maintain cell temperature consistency, and to accurately measure and monitor the battery temperature, in time to dissipate heat when the battery temperature is too high, and rapid heating when the temperature is too low.
Due to cost and technical constraints, liquid cooling will still be the mainstream solution for a long time. Battery cooling method is divided into air cooling, liquid cooling, refrigerant direct cooling and phase change materials several technical routes, of which air cooling economy is higher, but the cooling efficiency is low and it is difficult to ensure that the battery module temperature is consistent; liquid cooling effect is better than air cooling, is the current mainstream technical solution, the disadvantage cost is higher than air cooling; refrigerant direct cooling is the integrated management on the basis of liquid cooling, through the combination of the air conditioning system to take away the heat, the disadvantage is that the integration and software control accuracy requirements are higher, has been promoted in a few models; phase change materials use phase change Energy storage and energy discharge characteristics to dissipate and heat the power battery, which is still immature in the laboratory stage, is the most potential development direction in the future.
2.4.3. Shift from decentralized to integrated thermal management systems
Thermal management solutions are constantly changing with the rapid development of the industry. At present, the singularity of new energy vehicles is coming, and with the continuous deepening of electrification and intelligence, the content of energy management has gradually increased, and the requirements have become higher and higher; short-term popular schemes and leading advantages may be reshuffled with the rapid changes in the automobile industry. At present, the thermal management system is still decentralized, the circuits of the three electric systems and the air conditioning system are independent of each other, and there are their own temperature control and pipeline systems, the main disadvantages are low system integration, complex management, more components and insufficient energy utilization. However, from the perspective of the whole vehicle, the decentralized thermal management system can improve the system integration and reduce the waste of energy through overall management, and the main difficulty facing the current situation is that the control logic is complex, but the formation of an integrated thermal management system is the future development trend.
3. Thermal management analysis of new energy vehicles transformed by home appliance enterprises
3.1. The overseas oligopoly pattern has ushered in a change
In the future, the pattern of the new energy vehicle thermal management industry may form three parts of the world: the first camp is the traditional fuel vehicle thermal management market foreign oligarchy (Denso, Valeo, Mahler and Han Ang four giants in 2019 accounted for 59% of the global thermal management market share), with its traditional fuel vehicle air conditioning market system integration advantages and customer resources, into the field of new energy vehicles, relying on systematic product supply and full-line layout advantages, occupying the high-end market. The second type of camp is the domestic high-quality parts suppliers, such as Aotejia, Songzhi, Huayu and other enterprises, have the opportunity to get rid of the status of secondary suppliers of fuel vehicles, in the field of new energy vehicles and international giants to stand on the same running line, relying on the advantages of local proximity to the market, policy subsidies and cost advantages, and successfully break through the overseas oligopoly pattern. The third type of camp is the diversification and transformation of home appliance companies, home appliance companies have technical and cost barriers in air conditioning compressors and valves, and the financial situation is good, can achieve epitaxial growth through acquisitions, and have a better understanding of overseas markets, the disadvantage is that the initial customer resources are less.
Home appliance companies have four major advantages in transforming the field of new energy vehicle thermal management. Technically, the electronic expansion valve, four-way valve, PTC and other components in the thermal management components of new energy vehicles are homologous to the architecture and technology of household air conditioners and home appliance heaters, there is a high degree of similarity, and the feasibility of related diversified transformation has been verified by companies such as Sanhua Zhikong and Dongfang Electric Heating; and the air conditioning and heat pump systems of new energy vehicles are also highly similar to household air conditioners, and the Midea Group has achieved mass production of compressors and related motor products. In terms of scale advantages, the equipment and scale of domestic traditional parts suppliers are limited, and household appliance enterprises have strong cost control advantages in labor, raw materials, production organization and transportation, and similar products can form a greater scale advantage after being diverted through production lines, labor and capital input.
In terms of financial advantages, home appliance companies generally have low debt, the cyclicality of traditional home appliance business is weak, and the cash flow is good, so they can continue to output financial support for the transformation of the new energy vehicle industry, tap talent dividends, and form a two-wheel drive. Acquisition experience, home appliance enterprises after the industry reshuffle and integration, generally have the experience of mergers and acquisitions and acquisitions of foreign enterprises, when the industry competition is fierce, can better seize the opportunity to acquire enterprises in the industry, quickly complete the accumulation of technology and customer resources. At present, the main disadvantage is in terms of customer resources, home appliance companies and automakers have a shallow cooperative relationship, most of them do not have a first-mover advantage, and do not have traditional parts manufacturers. Therefore, we infer that the strategic way of transformation of home appliance companies is: first of all, focus on their own advantages, launch explosive products close to the market in the four major parts segments, and cut into the automotive supply chain; second, acquire industry-related enterprises and build scale advantages; finally, increase technology research and development to obtain system integration capabilities and form a new oligopolistic pattern.
3.2. Analysis of key home appliance transformation enterprises
3.2.1. Hisense Home Appliances: Acquired Japan's Sandian and entered the first echelon of steam-mounted air-conditioning compressors
Hisense acquired the world's leading manufacturer of vehicle air conditioners. In March 2021, Hisense Home Appliances participated in the private placement of Japan's Three Electrics with about 1.302 billion yuan, completed the equity delivery of about 75% of the voting rights on May 31, and completed the initial construction of the japanese sand power management team in July. Japan's Sandetsu has a long history, and in 1970, it began to carry out technical cooperation with American companies to produce automotive air-conditioning compressors. In 1981, it was possible to produce vehicle scroll compressors with high technical barriers, and around 2000, joint ventures were established in China, and the three larger joint venture companies in China were Chongqing Sandian (100% controlled by Sandian), Huayu Sandian (43% owned by Sandian) and Tianjin Sandian (51.46% held by Sandian).
Compressors are the core components of automotive air conditioning systems. The quality of the compressor directly affects the performance of air conditioning, the traditional fuel vehicle air conditioning compressor mostly relies on the electromagnetic clutch by the belt and the engine connection, to provide running power; new energy vehicles use more electric compressors, with the controller to control the motor speed and refrigeration, scroll type use more. The types of compressors are mainly divided into two types: rotary type and piston type; among them, the electromagnetic clutch controls the fixed displacement compressor, and the solenoid valve controls the variable displacement compressor. Traditional fuel buses mostly use mechanically driven open piston compressors or screw rod compressors; new energy buses mostly use variable frequency horizontal scroll compressors. Passenger car air conditioning compressors mostly use swashplate type, scroll type and rotary vane type. Sandian's air-conditioning compressor technology and product strength are strong, and can produce various types of compressors, of which Sandian Behr has a market share of about 38% in the global passenger car market.
Japan Sanden has been deeply involved in vehicle air conditioning for more than 50 years, and has strong product and technical strength. First of all, Japan's three electric deep ploughing in the field of automotive air conditioning system for more than 50 years, new energy vehicle related parts and accessories have also been laid out for nearly 20 years, with European and Japanese car companies customer relationship is deep, Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Mazda, Volkswagen and Peugeot and other car companies long-term procurement of three electric products; before 2015, in the compressor and air conditioning system technology, Japanese enterprise technology has long been leading the world, only after 2015 the technical strength of domestic related enterprises has been enhanced. At present, the scroll compressor volumetric efficiency of Sandian is high, the power consumption is low, the noise is low, the refrigeration and heating efficiency is higher, and the products have strong competitiveness. (Source: Future Think Tank)
3.2.2. Midea Group: Welling Automotive mass-produced a wide range of core auto parts
Midea Welling Motors is making rapid progress. Midea's Welling Motors and Meizhi Compressor Division have been deeply engaged in home appliance parts for many years, with the world's leading air conditioning compressor and washing machine motor technology, the global market share in 2020: more than 40% of household air conditioning compressors, 17% of refrigerator compressors, 37% of household air conditioning motors, and 18% of washing machine motors. Midea Group is making rapid progress in transforming auto parts and thermal management, and the transformation of home appliances and components is smooth, and in May 2021, Welling Automotive announced the production of three major product lines of drive systems, thermal management systems and auxiliary/autonomous driving systems and officially released five auto parts products: drive motors, electronic water pumps, electronic oil pumps, electric compressors and EPS motors.
Among them: (1) EPS motor, as a key component of the auxiliary/automatic driving system, realizes a wide speed control range of 0-4000rpm, optional motor with redundant, high torque quality, compact design, low noise and other energy efficiency, breaking through the long-term situation controlled by foreign capital. (2) The rotary electric compressor uses natural refrigerant CO2, which has the technical characteristics of high efficiency refrigeration and heating, low noise, and light weight; the speed of the R134a scroll electric compressor has also reached an astonishing 12000rpm. On February 16, 2022, Midea Group invested another 11 billion yuan to build a new strategic base for new energy auto parts in Anhui.
3.2.3. Sanhua Intelligent Control: The first-mover advantage in the field of new energy vehicle thermal management is obvious
The domestic valve body market and the DunAn environment form a duopoly. According to the industry online data, the domestic market share of DunAn environmental shut-off valves, four-way valves, electronic expansion valves and solenoid valves in 2021 was 40.7%, 46.5%, 26.2%, and 14.3%, respectively; and the domestic market share of Sanhua intelligent control shut-off valves, four-way valves and electronic expansion valves was 26.4%, 42.2% and 40.0%, respectively. The valve body market has high technical barriers, and the industry duopoly scale advantage is obvious, the industry concentration or further rise, the market competition pattern is difficult to have a major change.
The strategic vision of new energy vehicle thermal management is outstanding. In 2007, Sanhua Intelligent Control began to study and lay out new energy thermal management parts, obtained the first automotive electronic expansion valve patent in 2011, and realized the mass production of automotive electronic expansion valve in 2014. Compared with the domestic traditional auto parts companies, Sanhua Zhikong new energy vehicle thermal management revenue is the largest, relying on forward-looking layout and first-mover advantages, to achieve the traditional auto parts enterprises in the corner overtaking, can be said to be a classic case of the transformation of home appliance enterprises. At present, the company's product line is rich, except for compressors, PTC and sensors, almost all of which are involved. In the auto zero business, the company's top products in revenue are mainly heat pump systems and electronic expansion valves, and the first-mover advantages in these two fields are obvious.
Under the global layout, customer resources are of high quality. Benefiting from the company's excellent product quality, strategic first-mover advantage and scale advantage, the company's current global business layout is progressing smoothly, and the vehicle customers cover almost all well-known manufacturers: Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, Toyota, Honda, Kia, Volvo, BYD, Geely, etc.; new energy vehicle customers include Tesla, Xiaopeng, Weilai, etc.; In addition, the company is also a major auto parts tier supplier, supplying customers such as CATL, Sande, Denso, Valeo, Han Ang and so on. At present, the company has about 38 billion yuan in hands and orders before 2025, and it is expected that the scale advantage will be further consolidated.
(This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any of our investment advice.) For usage information, see the original report. ）
Featured report source: [Future Think Tank].