The initial loss, in fact, is not so terrible.
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Wen | Mei Xukang
Editor 丨 Zhang Yuzhe
In March 2022, WEILai completed its listing in Hong Kong, and Wei Xiaoli, as the top three new forces, completed the gathering of Hong Kong stocks and opened a new round of competition.
The price ranges of Weilai, Xiaopeng and the ideal and the consumer groups they face are different, and the relationship between the "leaders" of the three car companies who are also from the Internet is not bad. But the industry will still naturally compare the three.
In addition to the close sales level, Wei Xiaoli's establishment time is also close, and it is currently the only new car-making force that has landed in the secondary market, and it is also listed in both the US stock market and the Hong Kong stock market. More importantly, compared with the previous players, Wei Xiaoli has adopted a new model of "unprecedented ancients" to seize the market.
Weilai's services, Xiaopeng's intelligent technology, and the ideal range extender electric are all new heights that traditional car companies have not reached before. Different labels are also because the three face different markets, Weilai uses services to snatch the market from the mouths of BBA, Xiaopeng attracts young people with "geek spirit" with intelligence, and the ideal relies on "co-oil and electricity" to impress the hearts of "daddies".
In the automotive industry towards a new era of intelligent electric, which model is more effective? Who can impress more users? What models are more profitable? A large number of friends and businessmen hope to find the answer from Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, who go earlier, more personalized, and get more fan recognition.
As of the end of March, the financial reports of the three major new car-making forces have been announced. In this first comparison of hard data, who loses and who wins? Maybe everyone has their own different answer.
Losses are endless, and money is burned endlessly
According to the financial report data, in 2021, WEILAI's total revenue was 36.136 billion yuan, an increase of 122.3% year-on-year; the ideal total revenue was 27.01 billion yuan, an increase of 185.6% year-on-year; although Xiaopeng's total revenue was 20.99 billion yuan, it ranked third among the three, with a year-on-year increase of 259.1%, ranking first.
Among them, as the largest source of revenue, WEILAI ranked first with 33.17 billion yuan, an increase of 118.5%; Ideal ranked second with 26.13 billion yuan, an increase of 181.5%; Xiaopeng ranked third with 20.04 billion yuan, an increase of 261.3%;
Although Weilai still ranks first in terms of total revenue and automobile revenue, in terms of growth rate, Xiaopeng and Ideal have more impressive performance.
As for the loss situation that the market is most concerned about, for the whole year of 2021, the ideal net loss was 320 million yuan, an increase of 112% year-on-year; NIO's net loss was 4.01 billion yuan, narrowing by 24% year-on-year; And Xiaopeng ranked first with a net loss of 4.86 billion yuan, an increase of 78% year-on-year.
Both Ideal and Xiaopeng's net losses have further expanded. Xiaopeng said that the main reason was due to the increase in R&D, marketing, promotion and advertising expenses, as well as the increase in sales network and a large number of related personnel costs and sales commissions of franchised stores. Ideals are similar reasons.
Although the loss of ideal has expanded, its loss of 320 million yuan is almost worth mentioning compared with the loss of more than 4 billion yuan of Weilai and Xiaopeng. And in the fourth quarter of 2021, the ideal also achieved quarterly profitability, and it seems that the annual net profit is not far away.
According to market expectations, with the increase in car delivery and profitability, the new car-making forces will gradually end the state of burning money. However, the rising cost, insufficient supply of upstream parts, and the increase in marketing and other aspects of the rate, resulting in limited profitability of car companies, so there is a certain reference value in terms of gross profit data.
In terms of overall gross profit, in 2021, NIO ranked first with a gross profit of 6.82 billion yuan, an increase of 264.1%; the ideal gross profit of 5.76 billion yuan, ranking second, an increase of 271.9%; Xiaopeng gross profit of 2.62 billion yuan ranked third, but an increase of 885.9%;
In terms of gross profit of automobile business, the gross profit of NIO's automobile business was 6.65 billion yuan, ranking first, an increase of 245.3% year-on-year; the gross profit of ideal automobile business was 5.37 billion yuan, ranking second, an increase of 253.7%; Xiaopeng ranked third with a gross profit of 2.31 billion yuan, but the fastest growth rate, an increase of 1076.4%;
From the perspective of gross profit margin, the gross profit margin of WEILAI and Ideal Automobile in 2021 was 20.1% and 20.6%, respectively, in a state of stalemate, compared with the gross profit margin of Xiaopeng Automobile for the whole year of 11.5%.
In the fourth quarter of 2021, the gross profit margins of WEILAI and Ideal Automobile both increased sequentially, while Xiaopeng decreased by 2.7% sequentially. This is also the first time since 2019 that Xiaopeng has experienced negative gross profit margin growth.
The reason for the decline in Xiaopeng's gross profit margin sequentially, in addition to the increase in raw material costs and the shortage of parts, was the change in its product portfolio. Xiaopeng's sales share of P5 models with lower gross profit margin increased from less than 1% in the third quarter to 18.3% in the fourth quarter, P5 is lower than the price of P7, but the scale of sales growth is not enough to support the improvement of its gross profit margin, and the proportion of P7 sales with higher pricing has dropped to 51%, making the overall gross profit margin relatively low.
He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, stressed at the earnings performance meeting that the gross profit margin of new models, including the G9, and the gross profit margin of the company as a whole will be structurally improved.
Xiaopeng G9 / Image source: Xiaopeng Automobile official
Xiaopeng Automobile's medium- and long-term goal is to increase the company's overall gross profit margin to more than 25%. And with the help of scale effects and operating leverage, the expense ratio continues to decline.
In terms of cash reserves, the financial report data shows that as of December 31, 2021, NIO's cash reserves were 55.4 billion yuan, ideal auto cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, time deposits and short-term investments totaled 50.16 billion yuan, and Xiaopeng Automobile's cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term deposits, short-term investments and long-term deposits were 43.54 billion yuan.
The loss is not endless, but Wei Xiaoli is not short of money, but when will the money burning war stop?
Li Bin, chairman and CEO of NIO, said in the earnings call: "We take Q4 in 2023 as the goal of quarterly profit balance, and we hope to achieve profitability in the whole year of 2024. "Whether this goal can be achieved still needs to be marked with a question mark."
Overall, Xiaopeng ranks last among the three in terms of revenue, net profit and gross profit margin, but the overall growth rate ranks first. Weilai data is more ideal, and the growth rate has slowed down. Ideally, it is possible to achieve a turnaround as soon as possible.
In the final analysis, sales are still king, and car sales are the biggest indicators that carry Wei Xiaoli's profit dream.
Sales are king, who is the most innovative
In fact, among the three Wei Xiaoli, although Xiaopeng ranks third in financial data, in terms of sales, Xiaopeng has completed the counterattack.
In 2021, Xiaopeng's sales increased by 263% year-on-year to 98,200 vehicles, surpassing Weilai in one fell swoop and becoming the sales champion of new car-making forces. In the same period, NIO's sales volume was 91,400 units, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year; ideal for delivery of 90,500 units on only one model, an increase of 177.4% year-on-year.
Entering 2022, Weilai's sales have also been surpassed by Xiaopeng and Ideal for two consecutive months.
At this time, the new forces on the second line are also pressing forward step by step. Nezha Automobile sold 69,700 units in 2021, an increase of 362% year-on-year; WM Automobile delivered 44,200 units, close to the sum of the past three years, an increase of 96.3% year-on-year; and zero-run cars delivered 43,000 units, a significant increase of 443% year-on-year.
At the earnings meeting, Wei Xiaoli looked forward to his own sales in the first quarter.
Xiaopeng's outlook for the first quarter is that vehicle deliveries will range from 33,500 to 34,000 units, up about 151.1% to 154.9% year-on-year. Ideal expects vehicle deliveries of 30,000 to 32,000 units in the first quarter, up 138.5% to 154.4% from the first quarter of 2021. The ideal is not far from Xiaopeng's first quarter goal.
Nio's forecast for first-quarter deliveries is significantly lower, at 25,000 to 26,000 units, up 24.6% to 29.6% year-on-year. Based on the current sales trend, the sales growth trend of Weilai's old models has weakened, and It is normal for Weilai to have low expectations for the current sales growth.
In 2021, Wei Xiaoli has increased its investment in research and development: WEILAI's R&D expenses increased by 84.6% year-on-year to 4.59 billion yuan; the ideal R&D expenses were 3.29 billion yuan, an increase of 198.8% year-on-year; and Xiaopeng Automobile's R&D expenses were 4.11 billion yuan, an increase of 138.4% year-on-year.
From the perspective of R&D as a proportion of revenue, the ideal is 12.2%, Weilai is 12.7%, and Xiaopeng is the highest 19.6%.
Thanks to long-term investment in research and development, NIO will start the delivery of a number of new models in 2022. The NIO intelligent electric flagship sedan ET7 has begun delivery on March 28, and the medium-sized intelligent electric coupe ET5 is expected to start delivery in September 2022. According to the plan, NIO's medium and large SUV model ES7 will be delivered in the third quarter.
In addition to the launch of new models, in 2022, NIO will pay more attention to the construction of service and energy replenishment networks.
According to the financial report data, up to now, NIO has built 46 NIO centers and 341 NIO spaces, covering 155 cities; at the same time, 60 NIO service centers and 179 authorized service centers have been built, covering a total of 146 cities.
In 2022, NIO will continue to expand its sales and service network in China, and plans to add no less than 100 new sales outlets throughout the year, adding more than 50 NIO service centers and authorized service centers.
In 2023, Xiaopeng Motors will launch two new model platforms and its first model, namely the C-class platform and the B-class platform. In 2022, Xiaopeng Automobile's first five-seat medium and large SUV Xiaopeng G9 is progressing smoothly, and the PT production prototype has been rolled off the production line from the factory and will be officially listed in the third quarter. He Xiaopeng stressed that this car will help Xiaopeng Automobile improve gross profit margin.
In 2021, Xiaopeng focused on intelligence, and He Xiaopeng introduced the core function of XPILOT3.5 - the research and development of urban NGP is progressing smoothly. Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch the City NGP in the first cities at the end of the second quarter of 2022, and launch XPILOT4.0 on at least four of its models in 2023 to achieve intelligent assisted driving at high speed and in all scenarios within the city.
Ideal is gradually moving away from the state of winning the world with the ideal ONE car, and is currently developing its second-generation extended-range electric vehicle platform (X platform) and two high-voltage pure electric platforms (Whale platform and Shark platform).
In 2022, the L9 (codename X01), a new large-scale extender electric SUV model based on the X platform, has announced a number of official information, which is scheduled to be released in the second quarter and start delivery in the third quarter. In addition to the L9, Ideal Auto will also launch a number of extended-range models such as X02 and X03, or will be listed in 2022-2023. In addition, ideals expect to launch at least two pure electric models per year from 2023.
In terms of factory capacity construction, Wei Xiaoli has promoted the three companies.
At present, Xiaopeng Automobile's Zhaoqing plant has realized the parallel production of P7, G3i and P5 models. At the same time, the company has launched the second phase of the Zhaoqing plant expansion project, which is expected to increase production capacity from 100,000 to 200,000 units in the first half of 2022.
Nio's current production capacity mainly relies on Jianghuai Automobile's Hefei foundry. The production line upgrade of JAC Weilai Hefei Advanced Manufacturing Base is continuing to advance, and it is expected that in mid-2022, its full-line production capacity will reach 60JPH. The company's second production base in Hefei Xinqiao Intelligent Automobile Industrial Park is also planned according to the production capacity of 60JPH, and is scheduled to be officially put into operation in the third quarter.
Ideal Motor is promoting the expansion of the second phase of its Changzhou plant and is expected to increase its production capacity to 200,000 units per year in 2022. In October 2021, Ideal Automobile announced that its Beijing Green Intelligent Factory officially started construction in Shunyi District, Beijing, with an investment of more than 6 billion yuan in the entire project, which is scheduled to be put into operation at the end of 2023, and after the commissioning, the first phase will achieve an annual production capacity of 100,000 pure electric vehicles.
In addition, Ideal Auto disclosed in its earnings report that it will build a third plant in Chongqing Liangjiang New Area.
Traditional car companies, accelerating the turn
At present, the voice of new car-making forces such as Wei Xiaoli in the automobile market has gradually increased. In just a few years, its market value has soared, leaving behind a number of established traditional car companies. While making capital crazy, the emergence of new forces is also driving the market to reconstruct the valuation logic of car companies.
Compared with traditional car companies, the Internet genes, new marketing methods, and novel product positioning, electrification, and intelligent technology of the new car manufacturers may have certain advantages, but traditional car companies are better in terms of industrial ecology, production experience and quality control.
The towering tree that has been cultivated for many years is not something that the new car-making forces can shake the foundation for a while.
On March 23, Geely also released its 2021 financial report showing that the company's annual revenue increased by 10.3% year-on-year to 101.6 billion yuan, more than the sum of the three wei xiaoli. At the same time, the company's net profit also reached 4.35 billion yuan, almost equivalent to the loss of Weilai.
In terms of automobile sales, Geely's sales volume in 2021 was 1.328 million units, up only 0.6% year-on-year. The sales data of Geely Automobile from 2018 to 2021 were: 1.501 million units, 1.362 million units, 1.32 million units, and 1.328 million units, showing a certain downward trend.
Despite this, the sales of new car-making forces such as Wei Xiaoli are still less than a fraction of geely automobile. Although Wei Xiaoli's sales have increased year by year, it is still working hard to break through the 100,000 mark.
In addition, at the annual meeting of the financial report, Geely Automobile announced that it will take intelligence and new energy as the key direction of product layout in 2022.
At present, Geely Automobile has a total of four major brands, namely Geely, Lynk & Co, Geometry and Extreme Krypton, covering traditional fuel vehicles and hybrid and pure electric new energy vehicles, and Geometric and Extreme Kr positioning high-end new energy brands. Not only Geely, but also the new energy brands of traditional car companies such as BAIC Jihu have entered the high-end market, and will further seize the space for high-end new energy vehicles on which Wei Xiaoli depends.
Extreme Kr 001 /Source: Extreme Kr Auto Official
Wei Xiaoli's future is not limited to the mid-to-high-end market. Taking Weilai as an example, although the brand positioning and model price of Weilai and Geely are different, the vast low-end mass market is still a part of Weilai that cannot be ignored.
In the earnings conference call, Li Bin also said that the business work of the new brand facing the mass market is progressing smoothly, the core team has been completed, the strategic direction and development plan have been clarified, and the first batch of products has entered the key research and development stage.
Traditional car companies and Wei Xiaoli will inevitably fight in different battlefields.
Even in terms of Wei Xiaoli's proud intelligent technology, veteran car companies such as Geely and SAIC have long been doing layout, and in recent years, they have gradually seen output.
Although traditional car companies face the problem of elephant turning around, wei Xiaoli faces no less problems than traditional car companies.
In addition to years of losses, Wei Xiaoli also has to face the close pursuit of second-tier new forces, BYD, Tesla and other new energy head brands to show a large-scale swallowing of the market cake, coupled with the old car companies to chase and block.
With the further deepening of the transformation of traditional car companies, coupled with the continuous entry of Internet car-making forces, the new car-making forces, in order to maintain the glory of the past, must accelerate the product layout and intelligent electric technology research and development, until the traditional car companies adapt to the market, who wins and who loses, it is difficult to say.
Second-tier new forces, traditional car companies, Tesla, none of the companies are willing to hand over the market to people.
epilogue
Wei Xiaoli in 2021 seems to be generally stable and good, but hidden worries are still there. The competition between the new car-making forces is not small, and it is not easy to judge who wins and who loses. Weilai has the highest revenue, Xiaopeng has the largest sales, and Ideal has the least loss.
Temporary losses are not important, what is important is not to lose in the future where the pattern is stable.
Fortunately, the three major car companies have huge capital reserves and have a good gross profit performance, and will continue to remain competitive in the short term. While vigorously promoting the increase in delivery, the three new car-making forces are still accelerating their R&D investment to lay out the future, and have not disrupted the rhythm because of losses.
Today, a year later, when we look back at the 2022 that the new car-making forces have gone through, will the ranking of the three major new car-making forces be "Wei Xiaoli" or "Xiaoli Wei"? It's still impossible to give an exact answer, but so what.
The current victory and defeat can only show the different rhythms of the "Wei Xiaoli" stage. He Xiaopeng once said that around 2025, the time window for this round of car manufacturing will gradually close. At that time, we will come back to break the win or lose.
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