Head map source: "Yangtze River No. 7" stills
"Before, I didn't know how to lift", "I didn't know Tarzan with my eyes..." When oil prices continued to soar, making many fuel car owners cry bitterly, some netizens who had mocked electric vehicles ushered in a 180-degree turn. When many people in the industry believe that the spring of electric vehicles is coming, the price increase actions of major new energy vehicle companies have come one after another, making the market more confusing.
Since March, a number of new energy vehicle companies, including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, Nezha, Zero Run, Weima, etc., have successively opened a price increase model, and the price increase of their products has remained between 1% and 15%. Among them, Tesla has made 3 price adjustments in a week, showing the true color of "price butcher".
Wang Jun (pseudonym), a car owner who has just decided on model Y, said to the car market Monogatari, "Tesla directly paid the deposit after the first price increase, originally there was some hesitation before, I didn't expect it to really rise." Now that I think about it, I was born in the morning."
Tesla's "willfulness" believes that many people have become accustomed to it, there is no paper notice, directly adjust the price on the official website, simply sharp. In addition to other brands, they all have to issue a notice before the price increase, and the price increase is also very cautious. Especially for the new energy brands under traditional car companies, the price fluctuations mostly remain below 10,000 yuan, but some models have risen by more than 10%.
Source: Automotive
The new car-making forces, such as Xiaopeng, Weima, Zero Run and other brands, have the largest float of models above 20,000 yuan, some have exceeded 30,000 yuan, and some models have also increased by more than 10%. Of course, there are also brands that choose to stay still. Qin Lihong, co-founder and president of Weilai Automobile, said that Weilai does not increase prices, at least not yet.
As for the reasons for the collective price adjustment of new energy vehicles, it is no secret at present, and the announcements issued are also explained. All the car companies that choose to increase prices are "affected by the price of upstream raw materials" and are forced to increase prices under the layers of cost pressure. However, after the price increase, will the pressure really ease?
#01
The most violent price increase in the new energy market
All along, the main theme of electric vehicles has been to reduce prices, but from this year began to sing "reverse tone".
Judging from the current price increase, Tesla and Xiaopeng, Ideal, Zero Run and other domestic new forces have risen the most. For example, the zero-run C11 rose by 13%-15%; Tesla's highest-growing model was the Model Y, and the increase of each model remained at about 8%.
The price of Xiaopeng Automobile before subsidy was raised by 1.01-20,000 yuan, but because the price of the main sales model P7 part of the model exceeded 300,000 yuan before subsidy, it no longer enjoyed state subsidies, resulting in the maximum float of more than 30,000 yuan, the highest increase of nearly 10%.
After explaining the reasons for the price increase on the social platform, Li Xiang, the founder of Ideal Auto, also adjusted the price of the Ideal ONE model, raising it by 11,800 yuan from 00:00 on April 1, and the latest price after the adjustment was 349,800 yuan.
For this wave of concentrated price increases, Li xiang explained on a social platform: "At present, brands that have contracted with battery manufacturers to determine the price increase in the second quarter have basically announced price increases immediately. If there is no price increase, most of them are not yet negotiated, and after the negotiation, the price will generally increase immediately. ”
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Federation of Passenger Vehicles, said, "Before many car companies and battery suppliers locked in the annual supply agreement price lock low, car company pressure is not prominent, but some battery companies this year changed the price negotiation rules, the price is negotiated quarterly, and there are price openings, so the pressure on car companies that sign new orders after the price increase of power batteries is very large, and the cost pressure can only be alleviated by price increases."
After years of careful cultivation, the new energy market has shifted from policy-driven to a new stage of market-driven. Unexpectedly, after experiencing the impact of the epidemic and chip shortage, the raw materials of power batteries have become a new challenge. In the face of such a situation, many people in the industry believe that this sealed price increase announcement will directly affect consumers' purchase confidence.
"Many car companies are actually looking for a balance between price increase and market demand, and in the case of supply cannot meet demand, price increase is a feasible choice." For example, with a 5% increase, if you can retain 80% of potential consumers, it is worth trying. In contrast, even if the price is not increased, many car companies are currently difficult to meet 80% of the potential market. Auto analyst Liu Ming (pseudonym) said.
#02
Price increases make the A0/A00 market more "anxious"
On the one hand, there is the pressure of rising costs, and on the other hand, there is the risk of consumer demand. Whether the price rises or not can easily make car companies fall into a difficult situation, and it takes a lot of courage to make a choice. However, Tesla does not seem to have this scruple, but also played a leading role, since last year, it has taken the lead in rushing into the ranks of price increases.
"This is the advantage of a strong brand, which has a certain bargaining power and can continue to maintain a certain high premium ability." Other slightly weaker brands, in addition to bearing the upward pressure of costs, also have to balance the competitiveness of the brand, so they are very cautious," said an executive of a new energy vehicle company.
The reason why Tesla has this confidence is nothing more than its own brand value, superimposed on the strong demand of the market. In 2021, Tesla will sell 936,000 vehicles, far ahead with nearly one million vehicles. And in Tesla's logic, all cost increases require users to pay for it, and they must ensure a fixed profit margin.
However, for those small and even micro cars that only have low premium capabilities, the rising cost can only mean thinner profits or even losses. "Overall, the impact of price increases on the low-end market will be greater." Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said. Many people in the industry also sighed: "This market itself has a low profit margin, but consumers are most sensitive to price increases, and the days are destined to be difficult." ”
At the same time, the impact of factors such as the decline of new energy subsidies and the reduction of points transaction prices makes the days of low-end market models even more difficult. 2022 is the last year of the new energy subsidy policy, and the subsidy standard will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021. With the substantial growth of the new energy vehicle market, the transaction price of new energy credits has also been reduced to 500-800 yuan in early 2022.
Euler Official Announcement (Partial)
Under the pressure of multiple factors, Euler was the first to be unable to hold back, and its black and white cats stopped receiving new orders last month. Euler Automobile CEO Dong Yudong said that the two models of Euler Automobile have brought huge losses to the company, taking the black cat as an example, the price of raw materials has risen sharply in 2022, and the loss of each one sold is as high as 10,000 yuan, and the more it is sold, the more the loss.
Of course, more brands have chosen to increase prices. For example, Chery New Energy Small Ant and QQ Ice Cream were raised a week ago, with an amplitude ranging from 0.3-0.41 million yuan. On March 24, Wuling officially announced that it will raise the official guidance price of its hongguang MINIEV, Wuling NanoEV and Wuling Rongguang EV models, ranging from 4,000-8,000 yuan.
Then the question is, why did euler black cats and white cats not choose to increase prices to buffer the rise in raw material prices. Instead, it is only for good cats above 100,000 yuan to make price increases ranging from 6,000 to 7,000 yuan.
Dong Yudong said: "In the initial stage, Euler hopes to seek a certain breakthrough in quantity, so as to form a certain market volume. But from the overall strategy point of view, we pay more attention to promoting the upward growth of the brand, which also determines that we will definitely pay more and more attention to the waist market of 150,000-200,000 yuan, rather than entanglement in the bottom market. ”
In his view, the A00-level market where black and white cats are located has distinct characteristics of "low price, low endurance, low performance and low safety". Users who buy A00-class models are more sensitive to price, and it is very likely that they will not buy it if the price is raised.
From this point of view, for the A0/A00 segment, "price increase" may not be a prescription, can not alleviate their pressure.
#03
The window period for traditional car companies to catch up?
At present, the pure electric market, A00 + A0 market accounted for more than 40%. Most importantly, this market segment is basically the world ruled by traditional car companies. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, in the top 15 retail sales of new energy cars in 2021, A0/A00 models occupy 9 models, including Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Chery eQ, Changan Benben E-Star, Euler Black Cat, BYD e2 and so on.
Source: Multiplying Association
It can be expected that other traditional car brands will also encounter the same dilemma as Great Wall Euler. The rise in raw material prices will have a great impact on these traditional car companies.
From Li Xiang's words, it can be found that the price after this round of increases can only be maintained for one quarter at most. In the third quarter and the fourth quarter, there is a high probability that there will be a new round of price adjustment. "At present, the price increase will last at least one to two years, mainly because the release of raw material capacity requires a process." Xu Haidong said to the Car Market Story.
In his view, this also has a lot to do with the consumer side, and now the overall momentum is very good, if the sales volume increases rapidly, this will further stimulate the supply and demand relationship, and the requirements for raw materials will be higher.
The grim situation has made Tesla CEO Elon Musk also look embarrassed. Recently, he expects that next year's (electric vehicle) battery production will face "challenges", and batteries will become a "limiting factor" hindering Tesla's development in 2-3 years. IHS Markit also predicts that the surge in raw material prices will allow further growth in eviction battery prices to continue through 2024.
"With the deepening of the transformation of traditional car companies, A0/A00 models are obviously gradually losing their original role. This market will encounter unprecedented challenges," said an industry veteran, "coupled with the pressure of chip shortage, traditional car companies will focus more on mid-to-high-end models, just like Euler." ”
"In the long run, in order to cope with the rise in costs, car companies must improve product technical indicators, which are obviously impossible for A0/A00 models to carry." In other words, the rising price of raw materials is accelerating the pace of attack on traditional brand new energy products.
At present, the traditional car companies in transition still have operating profits mainly from the fuel vehicle market, so they have a stronger ability to resist risks. In addition, in view of the advantages that have always been on the supply chain side, this stage is likely to become an important window period for traditional car companies to catch up.
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