(NIO was listed for the second time in Hong Kong in March)
"Looking at the recent stock prices of car companies, the company is also very worried." An insider of a new car company complained to Der Spiegel pro on March 14. "According to the current market, the issue price is probably half as much as last year's discount." It was too much of a blow for us. The person said. According to the previous statement, in 2022, a number of car companies plan to list in Hong Kong, including WM, Zero Run, Nezha Automobile, Gaohe Automobile and other four.
However, from the performance of car companies in the US stocks, Hong Kong stocks and A shares since 2022, the stage of high valuation seems to have passed. Der Spiegel has counted the recent new car manufacturers including Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, as well as powerful car companies such as Great Wall, Changan, Geely, SAIC, and GAC, as well as new energy hot enterprises such as BYD and Ningde Times. From the beginning of the year to March 14, the stock price performance of these companies has all shown a sharp decline, and the largest decline in the company has even shown signs of waist cutting. As a result, the market value of many companies has slipped too far from the peak.
(Chart of stock price changes of major car companies in the past three months Draft: Der Spiegel pro)
Starting in 2020, the overall stock price of auto companies will take off. The new car manufacturers represented by Wei Xiaoli have soared, and their stock prices once reached $70 per share in January 2021, and their market value directly exceeded $100 billion. This market value exceeds that of established car companies such as BMW GM, and also ranks first in China. At the same time, the market value of Xiaopeng Automobile and Ideal Automobile has also leapt forward. However, from the current point of view, the market value of these companies has dropped significantly. Among them, the market value of Weilai Automobile, calculated by the data of March 14, was only 22.8% of the highest point, and it was also reduced by 52% from the beginning of the year.
The biggest drop was in Xiaopeng Hong Kong, whose current share price is HK$73.65, down 62.6% from HK$197 in early January. In addition, the stock prices of Great Wall Motors and Geely Automobile in Hong Kong stocks also fell by more than 50%, of which Great Wall fell by 58% from January to March 15 this year, while Geely fell by 51%. At the same time, Xiaopeng's stock price in the US stock market also fell by 56.6%. Overall, the companies that rose sharply in the early stage because of the concept of new energy have experienced a sharp correction, and the stock price has shown a straight decline.
This was true even in the Ningde era. On December 3, 2021, NINGDE Times hit the highest price since its listing at 692.00 yuan, and its market value is still 1.08 trillion yuan, but relative to the high point, it has evaporated 33% in about three months, and the market value has decreased by about 500 billion yuan. The decline in stock prices is related to the current decline in the overall market, but it should be noted that this downward trend has begun since last year. Obviously, the capital market has begun to worry about the previously high market capitalization.
However, in this year's rapid growth, many companies have taken the opportunity to complete the reserve of funds. From Wei Xiaoli's point of view, they have completed the secondary listing action at present, of which Xiaopeng and Ideal have achieved financing in Hong Kong, and it is still when the stock price is at a high level. At present, NIO holds about 60 billion yuan in cash, while Xiaopeng Automobile is about 45 billion yuan and Ideal Automobile is 50.16 billion yuan. The high market value of these car companies last year once became the biggest encouragement for the new forces, and driven by the high market value, many new car manufacturers have obtained large amounts of financing. Moreover, investment institutions have also shown a situation of grabbing new forces.
At present, among the several unlisted car companies, Weima, Zero Run, and Nezha are the three most popular car companies, and the cumulative financing of these three companies has exceeded 10 billion yuan. In particular, the capital force behind WM has reached a very exaggerated "giant" level, including the Macau gambling king and the Hong Kong Li Ka-shing family, all of which have funds to enter. In the valuation of these companies, due to the generally high market value of the new car-making forces last year, it has also brought about a rise in valuation. However, judging from the return of Xiaopeng, Ideal and Weilai to Hong Kong stocks, and eventually broke, the recognition of new forces by Hong Kong stocks is not as high as that of US stocks.
"At present, it is too difficult to go to the US stock market, and the policy risk is too large, you can only choose the science and technology innovation board or Hong Kong, but the science and technology innovation board is too difficult, and geely and Weima have not succeeded before." One analyst noted. According to a car company insider, its company is full of pessimistic predictions for the listing, believing that even if it is finally listed in 2022, the issue price may be too far away from expectations.
"It is not excluded that the listing will be postponed, but it will require the support of investors." The person pointed out. However, for companies like WM, postponing the listing again may completely disrupt the pace of development of enterprises, thus affecting the development of enterprises. Previously, due to its attempt to land on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, WM once shifted its focus to the capital market, which led to its little progress in the market, and the sales volume of the first three slipped to the top 6.
For such as zero running, Nezha, and Gaohe, this pressure is also predictable. Zero Run and Nezha Automobile are both based on small cars as the main sales force, but from the rise of raw materials this year, the pressure on small cars is very huge. According to Dong Yudong, general manager of Great Wall Euler, the loss of A00-class bicycles has exceeded 7,000 yuan, and the loss is expected to exceed 10,000 yuan by 2023. The more you sell, the more you lose money, this will be the problem facing these two companies, only try to solve the listing problem, the focus of the listing into the market, and then open up more premium products, is the way to survive.
Another car company, Gaohe, although it has only sold 5,000 cars cumulatively, the capital behind this company mainly comes from the Yancheng City Government. Judging from the market in which Gaohe is located, it is too difficult to fight a financing war to achieve the transcendence of the first echelon. And the higher the product, the greater the investment required. In this range, there are basically no companies that can continue to play. Gaohe is also facing the potential demand to enter the more mainstream market, but this means saying goodbye to the brand positioning of "toys", which is undoubtedly taking off the "emperor's new clothes" for this company.
"I never expected the market to be so miserable this year." Another auto industry insider also lamented. For new car manufacturers, luck is also part of the strength, catching up is likely to take off smoothly, and missing out may mean difficulties. The reality is so harsh.