From a year ago, no one cared about it to today's continuous heat, and the industry outlet of new energy second-hand cars stirs the heartstrings of every practitioner and consumer. Favorable factors such as policies, technology, and prices have made new energy used cars begin to move towards the center of the market; vehicle conditions, brands, and operating scales have made this emerging field face many challenges. The "Red Sea" under the second-hand car industry is waiting for new energy used cars to find their own "blue ocean".
Author | Liu Jinnan Edited by | Luo Lijuan
"During this time, we can hardly take a day off." Shenzhen new energy used car (referred to as: new two) car dealer Gong Hao said this about all-weather technology.
At the other end of the video phone, the WeChat prompt tone rises and falls. The staff behind Gong Hao hurriedly walked with the information bag in hand, and he pointed behind him, "These materials are all the transaction procedures during this time, and we must finish it before the end of work." ”
In Beijing, 1200 kilometers away from Shenzhen, new energy used cars also show a hot momentum. A few days ago, CCTV news disclosed that the price of local new energy second-hand cars has recently risen slightly, and the price of some models has increased by 5,000-10,000 yuan. Judging from the inventory turnover of second-hand cars, the turnover rate of new energy second-hand cars in the past was often more than 30 days. Now the shot can be completed within a month.
According to the data of the China Automobile Dealers Association (hereinafter referred to as CADA), in January and February this year, the retail sales of new energy vehicles and new vehicles rose by 137.5% and 180.5% respectively year-on-year, reaching 352,000 units and 272,000 units. Used car trading volume increased by 3.71% and 12.71% year-on-year to 1.4846 million units and 1.0768 million units.
From the perspective of retention rate, the retention rate of new energy vehicles increased significantly in January this year, and the three-year age retention rate of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) models and electric (EV) models increased to 61.5% and 49.5% respectively. (Note: The retention rate is the average price of the second-hand car transaction / the guidance price of the new car, and the guidance price of the new energy new car is referred to according to the guide price before the subsidy.) If there is no special indication, the retention rate is the three-year vehicle age retention rate. ）
Source: China Automobile Dealers Association
In this regard, CADA believes that the improvement of new energy vehicle ownership, market recognition and use experience is a macro factor in the rise of the new two; and the recent "delivery difficulties" of the new car market and other factors have contributed to the significant increase in the retention rate of new energy second-hand electric vehicles in February.
Unlike this, a year ago, the reaction of the new energy used car market was particularly dismal. The retention rate of PHEV models is difficult to reach 50%, while the retention rate of EV models always hovers at 40%.
In addition to brands such as BMW and Tesla, it is difficult to find new energy second-hand cars in the high-quality exhibition area of the second-hand car trading market, and a small number of new energy second-hand cars are parked in inconspicuous corners by car dealers. Even if it is a "quasi-new car", even if it is a "fracture price", it is still difficult to arouse the consumer desire of car owners.
The decline of new energy subsidies, the difficulty of delivering new cars, the market share of new energy vehicles and other factors have contributed to the external factors of the price recovery of new energy second-hand cars; and the gradual convenience of second-hand car circulation policies, the steady improvement of new energy technology, and the increase in after-sales support of main engine manufacturers for new energy used cars may become the internal reasons for the good new energy used car market.
1
Consumption is hot, car dealers are busy
"New Two" can also be the protagonist
The so-called "Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", for the new energy used car industry, the response of the terminal market is like "ducks in the river water", when the "river water freezes" comes, operators and consumers have become the most sensitive group.
New energy used car stores in the real shooting car dealers to provide pictures
After the Spring Festival, Gong Hao, who specializes in new energy used cars, experienced that the market was much more lively than ever. Not only local customers, but also some consumers in surrounding cities also came to see the car. On the whole, the average daily natural inbound customer flow increased by about 30% compared with the same period last year.
In the video, the exhibition hall of Xingchenhui, where Gong Hao is located, is full of quasi-new second-hand new energy vehicles recently acquired, with a rough count of about 20 units. The vehicles are mainly self-owned brand new energy cars and SUVs, and also cover overseas well-known brands such as Tesla. Gong Hao said that in the past, the inventory circulation time of the exhibition hall was about 30 days, and after the Spring Festival, the average circulation cycle of vehicles in the store was reduced to 15 days. Some of the hot-selling models in the new car market are particularly sought after. C-end buyers can be found almost in a day.
Courtesy of Qin PLUS car dealer
Take a BYD brand used 2021 Qin PLUS hybrid SUV as an example. The car has a mileage of less than 3,000 kilometers, and the new car guidance price is 132,800 yuan, and the second-hand transaction price is 128,000 yuan. Although the second-hand transaction price is close to the new car ticket price, Gong Hao still insists on his own transfer price. Eventually, the car was sold at the pre-sale stage.
"The current market is different from before, and the prices of these popular brands with long new car pick-up cycles are very strong at both ends." Gong Hao explained that new energy second-hand cars with excellent new car trading volume and good vehicle condition are the focus of attention of second-hand consumers at present. Previously, consumers' rejection of new energy used cars seemed to have decreased.
Consumers are "willing to enter the store" has become a new scene in the new energy used car market.
Melon seed used car park real shooting
Similarly, the Internet trading platform Guazi used car is located in the offline delivery center of Shanghai, and the recent circulation speed of new energy used cars has also accelerated.
Staff member Zhang Qing (pseudonym) told All-Weather Technology that the recent inventory cycle of new energy used cars is about 1-2 days. Consumers complete the online order, the car dealer sent into the warehouse, the same day will be taken away by the consumer. Many car dealers have also increased the listing registration of new energy used cars, and more and more car owners have consulted related car sources.
Pan Haiyang, manager of Shanghai Melon Seed Warehouse, said: The morning is still full, and in the afternoon, vehicles are successively sent to buyers
Zhang Qing explained that the current demand for new energy used cars is high, and the platform has higher requirements for the condition of new energy used cars. After all, boutique cars are already highly competitive in the second-hand car industry, so the inventory cycle, price and other aspects have improved.
According to Autohome statistics, the market share of new energy used cars jumped from 1.6% in 2019 to 4.0% in 2021; in 2021, the intended users increased by 43.9% year-on-year.
In particular, international and domestic oil prices have recently risen. Shen Hui, CEO of WM, also said bluntly on the social platform that the No. 95 gasoline running has entered the 9 yuan era, "according to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan more than the fuel cost of oil vehicles."
The high cost of oil vehicles and the extension of the cycle of new energy hot new cars have become the invisible drivers of the heating up of the new energy used car market.
A consumer believes that the intelligent configuration ratio of new energy used cars is generally higher than that of fuel vehicles at the same price. Due to the short development time of new energy vehicles, the source of young vehicles occupies the mainstream. Spending less money and enjoying more technology fits the public's trading habits. After the comparison, he prefers to buy an additional second-hand new energy vehicle to fill the daily commuting needs.
2
The "face" and "lizi" of price increases
In addition to the heating up, the recent price increase of new energy used cars also has traces to follow.
In January this year, subsidies for new energy vehicles fell again. According to the policy, the subsidy for EV models with a pure electric mileage of 300-400 km will be reduced from 13,000 yuan in 2021 to 9,100 yuan; the subsidy for EV models with a cruising range of more than 400 km will be reduced to 12,600 yuan, a decline of 30%.
The negative sentiment of the decline was quickly transmitted to the corporate level, and mainstream new energy vehicle companies such as BYD, Nezha, and Tesla all raised terminal retail prices to varying degrees. The Great Wall Euler brand had to choose to stop production due to problems such as shortage of raw material supply.
Under the "decline", the price of new energy vehicles has increased, which has contributed to the increase in the retention rate of some models. Judging from the retention rate of some of the above models in February this year: Tesla Model X rose to 70.2%; BYD Tang rose to 62.2%.
In Gong Hao's view, the improvement of the retention rate has made the recent purchase price of new energy used cars increase by about 10%, which has become the direct reason for the recent high retail prices of new energy used cars.
The optimization of the market structure, the stability of technology and the improvement of circulation capacity have brought more attention to the new second market.
Different from the "small, broken, old" To B business in the previous low price period, the focus of market attention has begun to tend to the field of old family cars dominated by A-class cars. According to the relevant report released by CADA, in January 2021, the A00-class models in the new second circulation market accounted for 60.85%, and the combined market share of A0, A and B was less than half of the former; as of January this year, the A00-class market size plummeted to 36.77%; the A-class and B-class cars have increased to 15.41% and 8.24% respectively. This set of data reflects that new energy used cars are close to the market structure of mainstream used cars.
The stability of the technology has also enhanced the confidence of consumers in car purchase.
Autohome has disclosed that after 2020, 400km cruising range has become the standard of pure electric models, and the head company has invested the emerging technology of 600km endurance and 100kWh battery energy into its mainstream products.
Not only endurance, thanks to the rapid development of power battery technology, blade battery, J2M, CTP and other technologies, the product indicators have been improved to varying degrees; and more and more charging facilities, power exchange schemes and the emergence of battery rental models have also reduced the difficulty of power replenishment.
On September 1, 2021, the Notice on Promoting the Registration of Used Car Transactions Across Provinces and Facilitating the Cross-provincial Communication and Facilitating the Transaction of Used Cars in Different Places (hereinafter referred to as the New Deal for Transferring Nationality) was officially implemented in 218 cities across the country, and the emergence of the electronic file transfer of used cars broke the chronic disease of second-hand car circulation.
"In the past, when selling cars to other places, it was necessary to raise the gear first, and people and cars frequently went back and forth between the place of transfer and the place of transfer. Now it's all electronic files, and they can be operated online. "A Beijing car dealer said that the introduction of the new policy of transferring nationality has greatly reduced the cost of transfer of car dealers and further released the circulation capacity of new energy second-hand cars." To take a very simple example, foreign consumers look at a new energy used car. Before the car arrives in the owner's city, we can complete the transfer registration. When the cost of compliance is reduced, consumers are naturally willing to accept it. ”
The price increase in the new car market has directly contributed to the increase in the transaction price of new energy used cars. The optimization of the market structure makes the new energy used cars closer to the mainstream demand; the stability of technology eliminates the ideological burden of consumers and operators; the qualitative change of circulation capacity, so that the demand of both supply and demand sides "fly together".
Over the "three mountains", new energy used cars seem to usher in spring.
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Opportunities are emerging and challenges abound
Statistics from the Traffic Management Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security show that by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in China has reached 7.84 million units, an increase of 59% year-on-year, and the global market share has exceeded 50% in May 2021.
According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" and the China Automobile Association, the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China will achieve 6 million units in 2025, and this figure is twice that of the total sales of new energy vehicles in the European market in 2021.
The new energy new car market is riding the dust, but the second-hand car market is still in the embryonic stage of low base. CadA's latest statistics show that the transaction volume of new energy used cars in 2020 is 47,464 units, accounting for only 0.35% of total sales; while new energy vehicles account for about 5.75% of total sales. It is enough to see that the new energy used car fails to reflect the market position equivalent to that of the fuel used car.
From the perspective of the core value of vehicle evaluation, the core value of electric vehicles is power batteries. Therefore, the residual value of electric vehicles can be roughly equivalent to the residual value of power batteries. The self-media hydrogen cloud chain has calculated an account, and the power battery decays to 80% of the new battery state, which will lose the significance of continuing to act as a new energy vehicle power battery. In terms of battery products with a mileage of 400KM, it needs to be fully charged and discharged 800 times, and the theoretical mileage is 320,000 kilometers.
"This is just an ideal model, and many pure electric models on the market have run more than 100,000 kilometers and are very troublesome." Experience told Gong Hao that this round of hot market is aimed at low kilometers, low age quasi-new cars, boutique cars. Some new energy second-hand cars with longer age and more kilometers are still incomparable to fuel vehicles.
"A new car costs about 150,000, a pure tram for 5 years, and runs 100,000 kilometers. We sold for tens of thousands of dollars at most, and no one asked. But that (detailed above) Qin Plus is only 3,000 kilometers, which is a few thousand pieces less than the new car, and it can be sold on the same day. ”
Not only the polarization of vehicle conditions affects the development of new energy used cars, but the brand is also an important factor affecting new energy used cars.
"In 2021, we will receive any car, and this year we will only receive famous ones." Gong Hao mentioned.
According to the "Consumer Demand Insight Report of the Used Car Market" released by Autohome, the top 5 pure electric models with retention rates in the fourth quarter of 2021 are Porsche Taycan, Tesla Model Y, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, WEILAI EC6 and Xiaopeng P7; the top brands of hybrid models are Porsche, BYD, Mercedes-Benz New Energy, and BMW New Energy.
Brands with a long existence, stable channel network and high market share have generally attracted the attention of car dealers, and for some new brands, car dealers still hold a cautious trading attitude.
Selix SF5 Source: Autohome
In May last year, the new energy vehicle Cerris SF5 launched by Huawei and Xiaokang co., Ltd. was unveiled. Although the combination of the two has earned enough market attention, the performance of the new energy used car market does not seem to be ideal.
"Soon after the Sales went public, it was rumored that it would stop production, when I received 150,000 (used cars) and the new car was priced at more than 200,000. Subsequently, a batch of small-scale inventory vehicles (Note: new cars have not been sold for more than 6 months since the date of production, and car dealers generally call them inventory cars) outflowed, and peers sold 180,000. "The unstable price performance, even for practitioners like Gong Hao, is also confusing." When asked about the brand's new model to ask the M5, Gong Hao bluntly said that he did not dare to accept it.
At the same time, at this stage, the structure of the used car industry is still in a relatively basic stage of development. The "small, scattered, weak" business state has not changed in essence. According to the circulation association, in 2020, individual industrial and commercial households accounted for 57.7%; distribution companies accounted for only 29.5%; small and micro enterprises with an annual transaction volume of less than 100 units accounted for 59.3%, and business entities with a personnel scale of less than 3 people accounted for 51.9%.
Car analyst Zhou Dong believes that whether it is fuel or new energy used car owners, often pay attention to the scale of the operator's business, because large stores can give people a kind of company's good business endorsement. The asymmetry between the rights and interests of most brands for the first and subsequent owners will also affect the market recognition of new energy used cars.
As for the after-sales side, Gong Hao does not shy away from it, his store does not have second-hand car after-sales business, if there is an after-sales scene, he will help consumers to go to the brand authorized outlets to assist in solving. In his view, authorized outlets have brand endorsements, and consumer recognition is incomparable to that of auto dealers after-sales. "So, we only make boutique used cars!"
On the cost of customer acquisition and operating profit, Gong Hao said: "At this stage, there are still slightly more consumers in online channels such as Guazi, and the customer source ratio is about 7:3 (online: offline). The new energy used car insurance and financial derivative business rebates are not as much as the fuel used cars. Therefore, we still focus on car trading profits. ”
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postscript
The rise of new energy second-hand cars comes from the unremitting efforts of OEMs and practitioners for many years. Although market demand is picking up, the young new second industry is still facing changes and challenges in the internal and external environment of the market.
Nothing is set in stone, and there is no industry to be generalized. Old car dealers who once disdained new energy used cars sat in the shop and looked at the new energy used cars that frequently entered and exited the market, and seemed to be able to remember the original appearance of the fuel vehicle market. The industry outlet has begun to emerge, and new energy used cars are opening up their own blue ocean in the red ocean of the industry.