Wen | Guo Yu, a reporter from Caijing
Editor| Wang Jingyi
"New energy vehicles (sales) in January and February this year were very good, and more than doubled, we expect that this year will definitely reach the original expected target, may be significantly more than the target." During the 2022 national "two sessions", Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with the media.
According to the China Automobile Association, China's annual sales of new energy vehicles increased from 507,000 units in 2016 to 3.521 million units in 2021, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. In January 2022, production and sales of new energy vehicles totaled 452,000 units and 431,000 units, up 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively, with a market penetration rate of 17.0%.
How many new energy vehicles can China sell in 2022? Previously, the judgment given by the China Automobile Association was 5 million vehicles, an increase of 42% year-on-year, and the market share is expected to exceed 18%. The judgment given by the association is more optimistic: there is a chance to break through 5.5 million vehicles and achieve a high growth rate of about 70%.
At present, a reality that cannot be ignored is that the subsidies for new energy vehicles, the rise in the price of basic raw materials such as lithium ore, and the supply of automotive chips that have not yet been completely alleviated are facing certain cost pressures for new energy vehicle companies.
"We have now begun to stop accepting new car orders for black cat and white cat models, and the orders that have been received will continue to be produced in order." Dong Yudong, CEO of the Euler brand under Great Wall Motor, told Caijing that the price of raw materials continued to rise, coupled with the 30% decline in the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, which put the black cat and white cat models in a difficult situation. "Now I lose 10,000 yuan for every car I sell."
In this case, how much will China's new energy vehicle sales be affected in 2022? Are the goals of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology consistent with those of the China Automobile Association and the China Automobile Association? Where is the confidence to complete or even exceed the expected goals?
Why "significantly exceed expectations"?
In fact, Xiao Yaqing did not specify what the sales target was and to what extent it was significantly beyond expectations, but it conveyed an optimistic signal. Xiao Yaqing believes that the current growth of new energy vehicle sales in China is inseparable from its development environment, policies and consumers' recognition of new energy vehicles.
Last year's hot new energy vehicle market benefited from these factors.
As the opening year of the national "14th Five-Year Plan", China's new energy vehicle sales in 2021 made a good start, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years. In 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland exceeded 3.5 million units, reaching 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units respectively, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ending the decline for three consecutive years since 2018.
"Judging from the trend situation, new energy vehicles in 2021 have maintained a booming development situation of production and sales." Fu Bingfeng, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Automobile Association, said that the rapid growth of sales in the new energy vehicle market has strongly supported the demand for the automobile market.
Monthly new energy vehicle sales and year-on-year changes from 2017 to 2022
In terms of policy, as of 2022, the new energy subsidy policy has been extended in China for nearly 13 years. According to the incomplete statistics of the "Caijing" reporter, China's total subsidy amount is 147.8 billion yuan, and the subsidy exceeds 1.9159 million new energy vehicles.
However, the new energy subsidy policy may be terminated by the end of 2022. On December 31, 2021, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in 2022", which pointed out that "the subsidy policy for the purchase of new energy vehicles in 2022 was terminated on December 31, 2022, and vehicles licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized." ”
Undoubtedly, subsidies are still one of the important references for today's consumers to purchase new energy vehicles, and if subsidies are really cancelled at the end of 2022, many consumers may choose to buy cars within the year.
In addition, new energy supporting facilities are one of the foundations of industrial development. According to data from the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, as of January 2022, a total of 1.178 million public charging piles have been reported by member units of the alliance, and from February 2021 to January 2022, about 31,000 public charging piles have been added every month.
Consumers' perceptions are also gradually changing. Yang Qian, deputy director of the Industrial Research Department of the China Automobile Association, believes that after years of cultivation, China's new energy vehicle industry chain has reached the most perfect level in the world, and the product supply is rich and diverse, "domestic consumers have changed from tentative consumption to assured consumption of new energy vehicles, and the awareness of green consumption is gradually increasing." ”
Policies, the environment, consumer perceptions, these positives will continue in 2022.
One proof is that sales growth continued in the first two months of 2022.
According to the China Automobile Association, in January 2022, the production and sales of mainland automobiles reached 2.422 million units and 2.531 million units, respectively, an increase of 1.4% and 0.9% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 452,000 units and 431,000 units, respectively, an increase of 1.3 times and 1.4 times year-on-year, respectively.
Although The sales data of New Energy Vehicles in China in February has not yet been released, some car companies have successively announced their own achievements, especially the new car-making forces that have attracted much attention. Overall, the sales of most new power car companies have maintained high year-on-year growth. However, WM has not announced its sales for two consecutive months.
Lack of core and less electricity, subsidies for the decline of 2022
For China's new energy vehicle sales in 2022, the industry's forecast is more than 5 million. However, the current situation of "lack of core and less electricity" and the decline and termination of the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 have all put doubts on the target of 5 million vehicles per year.
"From the current point of view, the chip shortage is a gradual process of relief. When it will be completely mitigated will remain to be seen. Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, told Caijing that at the beginning of last year, it was expected that the chip would be basically alleviated by the end of 2021, but it was later found that in addition to reasons such as fire, earthquake, and epidemic, the chip was still in short supply.
Recently, the price of raw materials for new energy vehicle batteries has continued to rise, so that the product profits of some new energy automobile companies have been greatly reduced, in order to cope with the continuous rise in costs, some car companies have begun to adjust their strategies, and some of their models have taken price increases or suspension measures. According to the incomplete statistics of the "Caijing" reporter, at present, SAIC Roewe, Xiaopeng Automobile, Weilai, BYD, etc. have announced price increase news. Great Wall Motor's Euler brand has begun to stop accepting new car orders for black cat and white cat models.
According to market research institute IHS Markit, in late 2021, the price of lithium-ion batteries rose by about 10%-20%, while the raw material lithium salt rose by about 400%. According to data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), by the end of 2021, the average price of lithium-ion battery packs worldwide is $132/kWh (about 840 yuan).
The new energy subsidy policy, which has been in place since 2009, has also changed. On December 31, 2021, the relevant departments of the Ministry of Finance announced that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will be reduced by 30% compared with 2021, and it is clear that the subsidy for new energy vehicles will be terminated on December 31, 2022.
But the opportunities outweigh the challenges.
Cui Dongshu, secretary of the Association, said that the rise in raw material prices is the impact of short-term resource misallocation and is not sustainable. "The second half of this year will be improved to a certain extent, with the upgrading of technology and huge capital investment, the world's lithium battery shortage problem will be gradually resolved, we should not worry too much about the resource problem of lithium batteries."
"In 2022, China's new energy vehicle market is facing greater development opportunities, such as consumer acceptance of new energy vehicles, subsidies are continuing, subsidy technical indicators have not changed significantly, etc. The above factors will promote the strong growth of new energy vehicles, so we expect that the scale of new energy passenger vehicles will have the opportunity to exceed 5.5 million in 2022, and continue to achieve high growth of about 70%." Cui Dongshu said.
As for the shortage of chips, Wang Weiming, director of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, recently said publicly that the world's major chip companies have gradually increased the production and supply of automotive chips, "New production capacity will also be released in the second half of this year, and it is expected that the shortage of automotive chip supply will gradually ease in 2022." ”
"Mainland new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of accelerated development, but they are also facing problems such as increasing pressure from international competition and stabilizing the industrial chain supply chain." Guo Shougang, deputy director of the First Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that in 2022, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure, and continue to carry out the pilot work of new energy vehicles going to the countryside and replacing the power mode. "We also hope that all localities will introduce more preferential policies for parking, charging and other use links, optimize car purchase restriction measures, and create a good environment for promoting the consumption of new energy vehicles."