Recently, I think all the drivers will probably smile when they see this chart, the recent international situation is turbulent, the oil price has soared, and once again a problem has been pushed to the table, at this time, should we buy a fuel car or buy a tram?
It is understood that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will be carried out at 24:00 on March 17, March 8 is the third working day of the 10-working day statistical cycle, crude oil change rate of 24.01%, it is expected to raise oil prices by about 1040 yuan / ton, has far exceeded the red line, equivalent to the rise, about 0.78-0.94 yuan / liter of the increase, which means that No. 95 gasoline will enter the 9 yuan era.
A few days ago, Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motors, said in a post on Weibo: The international oil price has risen to 130 US dollars / barrel, and The No. 95 gasoline will enter the 9 yuan era, which will cost more than 450 yuan according to the calculation of 50 liters of refueling. According to the calculation of 100,000 kilometers in 5 years, the electricity consumption of smart pure electric vehicles can save about 80,000 yuan more than the fuel cost of oil vehicles, which is almost equal to four LV or Hermès entry-level bags.
This situation I have a deep experience, to my BMW 3 series as an example, 60L fuel tank I generally left about 10L to refuel, the first two days when I filled the oil, my wife said you added oil once to use my bottle of SK2, when do you change the tram?
Shen Hui's remarks have also triggered heated discussions among netizens. Some netizens commented: "Distinguished new energy car owners, before I did not know how to lift up and did not know Taishan, I apologize", some netizens said, "The happiness of new energy car owners we do not understand", and netizens proposed, "Now add 1 back to the oil, it is enough for you to buy a bicycle, add 4 times the oil, it is enough for you to buy an electric car." ”
Some netizens even summed it up strongly with an oil poem: "92 full, happy and happy; 95 full, ruined; 98 full, well-off and rich." ”
Of course, some netizens said that from the perspective of cost, electric vehicles do have more advantages than oil vehicles, but such a premise is that the electric vehicle of this car needs to replace the battery? Is it expensive? Who is the higher depreciation rate of trams and oil vehicles after 5 years? Does this offset the difference in the middle?
WM Automobile used the WM W6 to calculate an account for everyone, taking the popular SUV of the same level as an example, calculating 200,000 kilometers in 10 years, including purchase tax, insurance costs, maintenance costs, electricity and fuel costs, etc., and obtained a cost of 150,000+ saved in the whole life cycle, which is equivalent to the purchase cost.
Personally, I think that from the perspective of the cost of use, the current electric vehicle is indeed worth buying, but it is also necessary to polish the eyes to analyze the choice. Recently, the subsidies for new energy vehicles have declined, chip shortages, power battery raw materials have risen sharply, coupled with the deterioration of Russian-Ukrainian relations to push high commodity prices and in the short term this situation can not see the end in the short term, many new energy vehicle companies have made price adjustments, including Tesla, Xiaopeng, BYD, GAC Aeon and many other car companies have announced price increases, such as Tesla Model Y's high-performance version is enough to raise 10,000 yuan, new energy vehicle prices will face greater pressure, price increases or will become normalized.
Not only the price rises, the delivery cycle has become longer, according to Tesla's official website, the current sale of the Model 3 series and the Model Y long-endurance version is expected to deliver 16-20 weeks, that is to say, 4-5 months, Model Y rear-wheel drive version and high-performance version of the maximum delivery time also reached 14 weeks and 16 weeks respectively. From this calculation, if you buy a Tesla Model 3 now, you won't be able to pick up the car until at least after June.
New forces have also extended the delivery time, taking the Xiaopeng P7 as an example, the 480km endurance version takes about 6-7 weeks, and the 670km endurance version is 8-9 weeks, compared with only 4-6 weeks before. In addition to Xiaopeng and Tesla, NIO expects delivery time of 8 weeks, while the ideal estimate is 5-7 weeks.
New energy vehicles and fuel vehicles I think is not a non-you-me relationship, from the current energy layout, new energy vehicles to replace fuel vehicles is still under great pressure, the game between the two is far more complicated than the market imagines, but the soaring oil prices and international relations may become a catalyst for everyone to invest in new energy vehicles.
Compared with expensive electric vehicles, now may be a good time to invest in affordable electric vehicles. First of all, the purchase cost of affordable electric vehicles is low, which can greatly shorten the cost recovery cycle; secondly, the price fluctuation trend in affordable electric vehicles is small, for example, in Terms of February sales, Nezha car sales were 7117 vehicles, an increase of 255% year-on-year, and suddenly surpassed Weilai and Xiaopeng to become the runner-up in sales.
Although affected by the Spring Festival holiday and the tight supply chain of chips and batteries, the sales of zero-run cars in February were almost cut, but the delivery volume was 3435 units, an increase of 447% year-on-year. WM Motors, a veteran of the new force that raised more than $400 million in the previous year, also sold quite well in February, with deliveries up 309.8% year-on-year, and their new E.5 A+ class sedan will also be launched soon, further into young families. From the data released by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers, it is not difficult to find that in the sales ranking of the new forces of China's car-making forces in 2021, in addition to the three leading companies of Wei Xiaoli and the products Nezha V, zero-run T03 and WM EX5 products that have gone to the parity market, the sales volume has risen significantly into the top ten, and it is not difficult to see that the affordable products that solve the just need for travel are more favored by current consumers.
The last sentence summarizes the full text: oil prices will continue to rise, electric vehicles can be bought but to polish their eyes, cars are not stocks, don't do the stupid thing that buys up and doesn't buy down.