Is power exchange mode the only way out for pure electric vehicles?
Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, recently put forward relevant suggestions such as "Suggestions on Increasing the Construction of Electric Vehicle Replacement System".
According to the data, by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 7.84 million, an increase of 59.25% compared with the previous year. Among them, there are 6.4 million pure electric vehicles, accounting for 81.63% of the total number of new energy vehicles. In this regard, Li Shufu said: "The core of the future development of the automotive industry is electrification and intelligence, and it is necessary to promote the accelerated development of human-computer interaction, automatic driving and energy technology. ”
Li Shufu believes that pure electric vehicles currently have two urgent problems to be solved, one is that the energy supplement is not efficient enough, and the other is that the purchase cost after removing subsidies is high. The use of vehicle-electricity separation of the power exchange mode, in terms of energy replenishment and cost reduction, are more advantageous than the existing charging pile energy supplement mode.
The data shows that in 2021, the number of charging piles in the country will be 2.617 million units, an increase of 55.7% year-on-year, but the number of substations nationwide is only 1192, and the replacement power stations are far slower than the layout speed of charging piles. At present, there are not many pure electric vehicles that use the power exchange mode in China, and everyone is more familiar with a variety of models of the Weilai brand, in terms of user experience, the power exchange mode is undoubtedly better than charging - a single power exchange can be completed within a few minutes, and charging takes at least 30 minutes.
Swap mode makes the car lose its personality
But everyone seems to have overlooked that power exchange for pure electric vehicles means a relatively unified chassis specification.
Also taking the NIO brand models as an example, whether it is a sedan or an SUV, in order to adapt to the same size battery, the wheelbase of the model is quite close. That is to say, although Weilai's current models have as many as 5 models, there is not enough difference between these five models, the price gap between models is not large, and the cheapest ET5 (starting price of 328,000 yuan) is only 120,000 yuan cheaper than the most expensive ES8 (starting price of 448,000 yuan), which cannot truly form a rich and multi-level model matrix.
Therefore, if you want to promote a pure electric vehicle replacement system, the first big premise is to require the model to have an almost consistent chassis structure. Obviously, this is not possible. Looking at the current automotive market, in addition to the sister models, it is difficult to find two cars with the same chassis parameters and structure.
Car companies with a rich model matrix can meet the car purchase needs of different users.
It is not difficult to understand that the chassis of the vehicle often determines the overall shape of the vehicle, the space inside the vehicle, the suspension structure, etc., and the car company will invest a lot of research and development efforts on the chassis in order to make the vehicle better perform on some performance parameters, so that the vehicle can obtain the corresponding performance performance.
Different chassis designs will make the vehicle show a completely different "personality".
Therefore, although it is a compact car, the models between different brands use different chassis structures, which makes the vehicles different in terms of space and handling performance, creating a colorful automotive world.
Private car replacement is a loss-making business
Even if everyone can accept pure electric vehicles with similar body size, handling performance, and interior space performance, so that the power exchange mode has the possibility of promotion, but for private cars, the power exchange mode is still difficult to finally land.
As of February 2022, NIO has laid out 844 substations nationwide, while as of January 2022, the NIO brand has sold only 181,000 vehicles, less than 200,000 vehicles, accounting for 2.8% of the national pure electric vehicle ownership. According to the current ratio of the number of substations in Weilai and the number of vehicles owned, if all pure electric vehicles can better experience the power exchange service, about 30,000 substations will be built nationwide, with a huge amount of engineering and a lot of investment.
In addition, generally, 5 power batteries need to be prepared in each substation so that vehicles that come to change the power supply can change the power in time. Only 30,000 substations require 150,000 power batteries. According to the current purchase price of mainstream automobile companies as an example, ternary lithium batteries are generally 800 yuan per kilowatt hour of electricity, and the cost of 150,000 power batteries is as high as 840 million yuan according to the capacity of each power battery of 70 degrees. If you calculate the construction costs and operating costs of the substation, the substation has almost become a project that is difficult to make a profit.
We have squatted on the Weilai substation in Guangzhou and found that the utilization rate of the substation is much lower than the theoretical value. According to WEILAI's official data, the first generation of power exchange power station exchange capacity is 120 times / day, while the second generation of power exchange power station power exchange capacity is as high as 312 times / day. The number of power exchanges per day is only 30 times, and the utilization rate is only 25% for the first generation of power stations, and the utilization rate is as low as 9.6% for the second generation of power stations.
Some people may say that removing some of the substations can improve utilization and reduce costs, but things are not so simple. At the time of our squatting, there were only 13 substations in Guangzhou, and there was a problem of uneven distribution, and so far, the number of substations has not decreased, but has increased to 21. This is nothing more than a high cost, so that users can enjoy a more convenient and faster battery exchange experience.
At present, the power exchange model of private cars has similarities with the shared bicycles that were once popular, that is, the user experience seems to be good, but the model itself cannot be unprofitable and sustainable.
Written at the end: The power swap model should be promoted in operating vehicles, such as taxis, ride-hailing, buses and short-distance vans. These vehicles are not like private cars can fully achieve the unification of model specifications, and there is no freedom of travel constraints. It is only necessary to build a few large substations in the city, such as taxi/ride-hailing/bus stops, logistics parks, etc.
If the power exchange mode is implemented on the bus, it will greatly improve the operational efficiency of the bus and save the land area of the bus charging yard.
At present, charging is the mainstream energy replenishment method of pure electric vehicles, although the energy replenishment time is long, and the purchase cost of the vehicle is increased, but it is undeniable that this is the most ideal way for private cars. This reaffirms our positioning of pure electric vehicles – short-distance movements and complementary to the market.
With the continuous improvement of electromechanical coupling technology, plug-in hybrid vehicles that can achieve zero anxiety of travel freedom, low energy consumption, convenient and fast energy replenishment have become the new favorite of the market. Last year, the EU's PHEV model increase ranked first, reaching 70.7%. It seems that in Europe, where the car market is relatively mature, consumers are more willing to buy PHEV.
Text | Wave
(This article is the author's personal opinion only and does not represent the position of DearAuto.) )
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Mr. Li Guoyong of Guangdong Green Law Firm