Starting from the sales analysis in January 2022, Tong Jiren Automobile Research Institute has analyzed the passenger car market into three categories: scooters, mainstream cars, and high-end cars by classifying car usage scenarios and needs.
This article is a mainstream car analysis, covering compact, medium-sized, medium-sized and large-scale cars of ordinary independent brands and joint venture brands, and does not include high-end imported cars of ordinary joint venture brands (such as Volkswagen Touareg and Toyota Alpha).
Sales volume: market share is stable and shrinking
1. Sales volume in the mainstream car market in January
New car sales in the mainstream car market in January were 1,565,874 units, down 6.04% year-on-year, and the market share in passenger cars was 69.2%, faster than the overall decline in the passenger car market.
From the perspective of power type, the share of new energy vehicles in the mainstream car market is 9.7%, which is lower than the overall level of the passenger car market. Hybrid vehicles account for only 4.3% of the mainstream car market, and there is still huge room for the replacement of fuel vehicles and the impact on the concept of mainstream consumer groups.
2. Share by city line level and price segment
According to the division of urban lines, the mainstream car market and the overall structure of passenger cars are basically the same, the first- and second-tier cities are slightly lower than the overall proportion of passenger cars, and the third- to fifth-tier cities are slightly higher than the overall proportion of passenger cars, with a difference of between 1-2 percentage points. The demand for mainstream cars by consumers in various tier cities shows a weak inverse correlation with the economic level.
According to the price segment, 100,000-200,000 yuan is still the core range of the mainstream car market, accounting for nearly 60%. There are still 15-20% shares in the range of less than 100,000 yuan and 20-250,000 yuan each. The mainstream car in the range of more than 250,000 yuan, in addition to sporadic products with strong functionality, has basically been completely marginalized.
3. Sales of models in price segments
In the range below 100,000 yuan, the mainstream home car of independent brands and the entry-level compact SUV occupy the absolute dominance. Among them, Geely and Changan are both mainstream family cars and affordable compact SUVs, while SAIC Passenger Cars has a strong performance in the car market, and the sales of roewe i5 and MG5, two different styles of cars, have exceeded 10,000 units, and the total sales volume has led the mainstream home car market of independent brands. Among the joint venture brands, only jetta VS5 and Santana, which have both price and brand advantages, remain in the head market of this price range.
In the range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, the six joint venture mainstream cars still have a strong market foundation. In this price segment, independent brands still need to rely on SUVs to support the volume, and the main sales SUVs of the top three independent heads are ranked in the top ten in the sales volume of models in this price segment.
In the range of 200,000-250,000 yuan, the medium-sized sedans and mainstream size SUVs of the joint ventures of Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda occupy an absolute advantage in volume. There are two SUVs of independent brands that have entered the top ten sales in this price segment, one is the Hongqi HS5 with special brand appeal, and the other is the tank 300 with uniqueness in the category and the gradual climb in production capacity, both of which have a sense of exclusivity that the joint venture brand cannot provide.
In the range of more than 250,000 yuan, the hot mainstream cars are mainly medium and large size SUVs and MPVs, and only the Xiaopeng P7 is a new power electric vehicle on the list. In the price range at the junction of mainstream cars and luxury cars, the core appeal of consumers to buy mainstream cars is the functional practicality of size and space.
Overall, the mainstream car market is a stable and shrinking market. The stability lies in the fact that the absolute scale of the mainstream consumer base is still incomparably large, shrinking in the consumer market concentrated in the range of 100,000-200,000 yuan, while the fuel vehicle market of more than 250,000 yuan, only word-of-mouth models and strong functional models can survive, and the brand-oriented consumer group has fully turned to luxury brands and high-end new power brands.
Event: The layout of the joint venture brand SUV is reorganized
1. Toyota SUV new matrix formation
In January, the North and South Toyotas were successively listed on the markets of Feng Lanta, Weisa and Corolla Ruifang. So far, the 10 SUV models of North-South Toyota have been listed, seamlessly covering the entire SUV market from small to large seven-seater, from 120,000 yuan to 350,000 yuan, and it is also the second joint venture brand to complete the matrix layout of all SUV after Volkswagen. However, in the context of Volkswagen's SUV matrix began to decline, and the market space of mainstream joint venture brands was also declining, Toyota's sales efficiency of this move will not be higher than that of Volkswagen four or five years ago, but the concentrated ambition for the remaining market share can be seen.
Honda will follow up on this layout, the CR-V replacement will increase the body size, CR-V/ Haoying and XR-V / Binzhi, is expected to insert an SUV.
2. Buick Encore family integration
The old Oncovi officially stopped production, the main impressed Oncoway S and the main five-seat Oncovey PLUS integrated for the Uncoway family for unified dissemination, and the old Oncovey main cost-effective crowd, by the Oncovey S and Oncovey PLUS 1.5T models to undertake.
The spread of the concept of the Uncorve family is Buick's targeted measure against its low proportion of SUV sales and weak influence of individual models. In the sales volume in 2021, the old Oncoway accounted for 62% of the sales of the Oncovi family, so after the production of the old Oncovi, the undertaking and diversion of this batch of base disk users is the key to the stability of the sales of the Oncovi family. Within the Oncovi family, oncoway S and Oncovey PLUS currently have basically equal sales, and Buick also hopes to replicate the matrix effect of Regal + LaCrosse in the mainstream joint venture SUV market, and face the fierce market competition with two product combinations with large differences in positioning.
Trend: Joint venture contraction, autonomous penetration
1. The price intersection point between the independent and joint venture brands is moved up
The mainstream car market below 100,000 yuan has been almost occupied by independent brands, and although the mainstream car market of more than 250,000 yuan is small, the characteristic flagship models of a few joint venture brands still have good sales. Therefore, the intermediate market of 100,000-250,000 yuan is a section where independent brands and joint venture brands intersect.
In the mainstream market of 100,000-200,000 yuan, the mainstream SUVs of independent brands have gradually caught up with the volume of mainstream home cars of joint venture brands. Nowadays, in the price range of about 200,000 yuan, some SUVs with distinctive characteristics of some independent brands have also begun to cover the inherent population of joint venture brands, including Hongqi HS5 with brand appeal, Tank 300 with category uniqueness, and Song PLUS, Tang and Xingyue L hybrids that rely on electrification advantages. When the mainstream joint venture SUVs are no longer blooming and concentrated on a small number of strong models, independent brands also have new opportunities to break through.
2. The advantages of the Japanese over the Ashkenazi have expanded
In January, independent brands accounted for 47.7% of the mainstream car market share, and japanese and German were 24.6% and 15.8% respectively, and the Japanese share was nearly 9 percentage points ahead of The Germans. Considering the mainstream car market of more than 200,000 yuan, the bargaining power of Japanese brands has been significantly stronger than that of German brands. Whether it is sales scale or profitability, the advantages of Japanese brands over German brands are increasing.
The only variable is the electrification transformation process of the joint venture brand. Although the electrification transformation of each joint venture brand is struggling, the Ashkenazi brands represented by Volkswagen have taken the first step and explored the construction of new marketing systems for the joint venture brand in terms of product insight and marketing system construction. In contrast, the electrification process of Japanese brands has less acceptance at the consumer level and more constraints on transformation. The current fuel vehicle dividend is a non-renewable resource for Japanese brands.
3. A hundred flowers blooming autonomous caravans gradually occupy the mind
When most joint venture brands were marginalized in the mainstream car market below 100,000 yuan, the mainstream home car of independent brands has re-grown in this price segment. This does not contradict the rapid growth of scooters below 100,000 yuan, and the consumption demands and car use scenarios of the two are completely different, and will not constitute a zero-sum game between one and the other.
In addition to the Geely Emgrand family, which has been working in the family car market, and Changan Automobile, which relies on Yidong PLUS to return, SAIC Passenger Cars has also become a market segment. The Roewe i5, which is partial to quality, and the MG5, which takes the ultimate cool style, have expanded the volume of the mainstream home car market of independent brands with completely different personalities.
In the independent car market of more than 100,000 yuan, there are both Xingrui who take the leapfrog route, UNI-V and Shadow Leopard that take the sports coupe route, plus the veteran model Lynk & Co 03, which has penetrated into the personalized market in the original mainstream joint venture car, and gradually compresses the living space of the mainstream joint venture car to the most conservative crowd, which will be very beneficial to the further expansion of the independent brand car.