After experiencing a collective carnival in 2021, the new power car companies have once again ushered in a crisis.
Since March, the sales of new car-making forces have been announced last month, and have entered a moment of collective decline:
In February, the delivery volume of ideal cars fell by 31.4% month-on-month, Nezha Automobile fell by 35.4% month-on-month, Xiaopeng Automobile fell by 51.8% month-on-month, and Weilai Automobile fell by 36.47% month-on-month.
Among them, Weilai's sales have fallen behind the most seriously, and its sales have declined for several consecutive months, and it has even been squeezed out of the first camp by Nezha.
At the end of the subsidy for new energy vehicles, in the face of a strong enemy roaring in, how can the new forces defend the ring?
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For the collective decline in sales in February, the new force car companies said that it was a factor of suspension of production during the Spring Festival holiday, which was actually too one-sided.
On the last day of 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the "2022 New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Plan":
In 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will be reduced by 30% on the basis of 2021, and new energy vehicles that are licensed after December 31, 2022 will no longer be subsidized by the state.
That is to say, 2022 will be the last year of China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy, and the era of subsidies is coming to an end.
After the release of the new deal, Tesla, Xiaopeng began to rise in price, Tesla's domestic Model Y rear-wheel drive version rose by 21,000 yuan, and the Xiaopeng P7 series rose by 4300-5900 yuan....
Subsidy slides and car companies have caused concerns about the sales of electric vehicles in the market, and now it seems that the worries have become a reality, specific to sales:
Ideal delivered 8,414 units in February, up 265.8% year-on-year and down 31.4% month-on-month;
Nezha Automobile delivered 7117 units, an increase of 255% year-on-year and a decrease of 35.4% month-on-month;
Xiaopeng Automobile delivered 6225 units, an increase of 180% year-on-year and a decrease of 51.8% month-on-month;
NIO delivered 6,131 units, up 9.9% year-on-year and down 36.47% month-on-month.
Weilai's sales lagged behind significantly, with a significant year-on-year increase lower than the other three, and this downturn has continued for several months.
In October 2021, NIO delivered 3,667 new cars, down 65% month-on-month, causing market attention. For the collapse in sales, WEILAI said at the time that it was because the Jianghuai Weilai Hefei plant was shut down in October, resulting in output being affected.
After the annual sales of China's new energy vehicles in 2021 were announced, Weilai was also quite disappointed.
Last year, the national retail sales of new energy passenger cars were 2.989 million units, up 169.1% year-on-year, and champion BYD sales reached 584,000 units.
In contrast, the sales of new forces have stopped at the mark of 100,000, and Weilai has sold 91,400 vehicles in the whole year, an increase of 109.1% year-on-year, not only losing the position of the champion of new forces, but even failing to beat the growth rate of the industry.
Judging from the sales volume in February this year, Weilai has not yet come out of the downturn, and the so-called suspension transformation and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday are more to cover up the decline crisis.
The months-long slump is not just a drop in the rankings, but also means that NIO may lose an important bet.
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2019 is the darkest moment before the epic market of new energy vehicles.
That year, Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy due to production capacity obstruction and repeated short selling, and the stock price was once cut. Weilai's stock price fell by 80% at the highest, and many capital liquidations retreated, and Li Bin was called "the most miserable person".
In the autumn of critical survival, Tesla received super foreign aid from the Chinese government, and the Shanghai Gigafactory finally turned the tide and became the king of trams.
The noble man of Weilai is the Hefei Municipal Government, which received an investment of 7 billion yuan, but with conditions:
NIO China needs to achieve revenue of 14.8 billion yuan in 2020, 120 billion yuan in 2024 (listing 6-8 models); total revenue of 420 billion yuan and total tax revenue of 7.8 billion yuan from 2020 to 2025, and listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board by 2025.
However, as of the first three quarters of 2021, NIO's total revenue was only 26.235 billion yuan, an increase of 173% year-on-year.
If the total revenue in 2021 is calculated at 30 billion, the total revenue of WEIlai will be quadrupled in the next few years to achieve the 2024 betting target.
Judging from Weilai's current sluggish sales, running to 100 billion revenue is an uphill battle.
In addition, NIO has been losing money for many years. From 2018 to 2020, NIO's net losses were 9.6 billion yuan, 11.287 billion yuan and 5.304 billion yuan, respectively; in the first three quarters of 2021, a total loss of 8.393 billion yuan was 34.5 billion yuan in less than four years.
At the same time, Tesla's 2021 performance is very eye-catching; the annual revenue is as high as $53.823 billion, an increase of about 71% year-on-year. Net profit was $5.519 billion, up 665% year-over-year.
The same is the most miserable car company in 2019, now Tesla earns $5.5 billion a year, But Weilai continues to make huge losses, and investors in the capital market under the huge gap also vote with their feet, and since 2021, Weilai's stock price has continued to fall, and has fallen by nearly 70% so far.
Tesla's profitability is amazing, on the one hand, the cost reduction and efficiency improvement results are remarkable, such as its gross profit margin of 27.4% in the fourth quarter, and the gross profit margin of single vehicles is as high as 30.6%. In contrast, Weilai's gross profit margin for bicycles in the third quarter is still stuck at 18.6%.
In addition, sales are the strongest guarantee, with global sales of 936,000 units in 2021, an increase of 87% year-on-year, and Chinese consumers alone bought 320,000 vehicles.
Weilai's annual sales are only about 10% of Tesla's, how to compare?
I think the main reason for the sales of Weilai is the so-called high-end strategy, the main high-end label of Weilai is expensive, the main model ES8, ES6 starting price of more than 350,000 yuan, the new coupe ET7 starting price of 448,000 yuan, the same type of BYD Han, Xiaopeng P7 starting price is about 200,000.
New energy vehicles have long bid farewell to the early age, into thousands of households, compared to the ultimate cost performance, compared to BYD Han, Tesla Model 3, twice as expensive Weilai has no advantage at all.
In 2022, Tesla's self-developed 4680 large cylindrical battery is about to be installed on a large scale, and the energy density of this battery will increase by 5 times, the mileage will be increased by 16%, the output power will be increased by 6 times, and the cost will be reduced by 14%.
Batteries are better priced but cheaper, thanks to this, 100,000 yuan Tesla is expected to be born.
Therefore, the self-developed technology is rich and the price is attractive, which is the reason why BYD and Tesla are proud of the market, rather than self-appointed high-end labels.
In 2022, new energy vehicles are facing problems such as subsidy ebb and flow, zinc deficiency, supply chain crisis, etc., market pressure is not small, coupled with the acceleration of the transformation of traditional car companies, Internet giants cross-border car manufacturing, leaving the living space for new forces to become more and more narrow.
If you want to keep the market laid down in the past, you still need to return to the product side and sink your heart to find a breakthrough!