Will the new oil price subsidy policy become a spring breeze in the green bus market?
The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport recently issued the "Notice of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport on Adjusting the Subsidy Policy for Rural Passenger Transport and Taxi Oil Prices" Caijian [2022] No. 1 (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which adjusts the subsidy policy for rural passenger transport and taxi oil prices, focusing on supporting the development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also held a meeting to clearly support the application of new energy vehicles.
These two signals will undoubtedly become a spring breeze in the sluggish bus market and "thaw" the frozen bus market in 2022.
Adjustment Policy Four unchanged and one change
According to the circular, the new round of rural passenger transport and taxi oil price subsidy policies highlight the "four unchanged": the nature of the subsidy fund transfer payment remains unchanged, it continues to be issued through general transfer payments, and is used by local governments to support the development of the rural passenger transport and taxi industry; the total amount of subsidies remains unchanged; the base of fee-to-tax subsidies remains unchanged, and it is issued to the provinces according to the current base; and a policy cycle remains unchanged in five years.
The only change is to make appropriate adjustments to the price increase subsidy part, mainly according to the promotion of rural passenger transport operations and vehicle electrification in the field of public services in various provinces, and fine-tune the amount of subsidy funds in each province.
During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, 70% of the price increase subsidies of the incentive funds for urban transportation development in various provinces were coordinated by various localities to support the operation of new energy vehicles in the field of urban transportation.
At the same time, from the local urban transportation development incentive funds, the provinces will give the province a special incentive fund of 5 million yuan per city per year for the national public transport urban construction demonstration city, and give the green freight distribution demonstration city of the province a special incentive fund of 3 million yuan per city per year to support the demonstration creation.
Combined with the original policy, it can be seen that after the introduction of the new operating subsidy policy, new energy buses can be purchased with confidence, and the state will continue to support new energy buses, and there will still be subsidies.
Multiple measures are taken at the same time to escort green travel
On February 28, Xiao Yaqing, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stressed at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that it is necessary to continue to implement policies such as subsidies for the purchase of new energy vehicles, incentives for charging facilities, and preferential tax reductions and exemptions for vehicles and vessels.
Xin Guobin, vice minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that it will give full play to the role of the inter-ministerial joint conference mechanism for energy conservation and new energy automobile industry development, improve support policies, pay close attention to studying and clarifying support policies such as the continuation of preferential tax treatment for new energy vehicles, stabilize market expectations, organize the preparation of a roadmap for the green development of the automobile industry, and provide guidance and help for industry enterprises. At the same time, we will focus on supporting innovative breakthroughs, promoting market expansion, strengthening resource guarantees, strengthening safety supervision and other aspects of work, so as to escort the development of the new energy bus industry.
These measures undoubtedly "eat a reassurance pill" for the operation of new energy buses. At present, the right of way of many fuel vehicles is not limited by short cuts, and the purchase of new energy buses for operation is obviously more protected and encouraged by policies.
The policy subsidies are stable, and the total sales volume of new energy buses is expected to usher in a significant increase
According to the notice, the new round of rural passenger transport and taxi oil price subsidy policy highlights the "four unchanged", the only change is to make appropriate adjustments to the price increase subsidy part. The new energy subsidy policy will be terminated on December 31, 2022, which means that this year may become the cheapest year for new energy models in the next three years.
Previously, after years of policy subsidy support, the technology, cost, operation mode and infrastructure of new energy buses were relatively mature and stable, and under the background of the implementation of the "double carbon" strategic goal, its alternative advantages with lower operating costs were more obvious.
Faced with the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020 and the spread of multiple rounds of epidemics in many places in 2021, the bus passenger transport industry has generally encountered difficulties in recent years. After the notice was issued, with a stable policy subsidy, the bus passenger transport industry can now replace new energy buses in one step with the help of preferential policy subsidies.
With the substantial increase in domestic consumers' recognition of the new energy market and the stability of policy subsidies, it will inevitably promote the total sales volume of China's new energy buses in 2022.
The second-hand bus market will accelerate circulation and be beneficial to the pure electric bus market in 2022
In the context of the national "double carbon" strategic goal, new energy buses are the development direction of the bus industry, and the same is true in 2022.
Pure electric buses account for more than 90% of the new energy bus market, and the concentration will be higher than before. Pure electric buses can not only achieve zero emissions, completely get rid of the dependence on fuel, the main target market in the field of public transport, technology is also very mature, and charging is convenient, will inevitably become the main theme of the development of new energy buses in 2022.
The "four unchanged" of the new operation subsidy policy, the subsidy is stable, and the implementation of the new energy bus industry will promote the accelerated circulation of the bus used car market in 2022 and make more market space for the sales of pure electric bus new cars.
Taking traditional buses as an example, if the retired buses quickly enter the circulation of the second-hand car market and complete the transaction, the existing assets of the bus companies can be quickly revitalized. This means that bus companies will have a full cash flow, which will free up more money to buy new cars. In this way, it will further stimulate the incremental market of new energy buses and new vehicles.
The new energy buses purchased by customers in 2013, 2014 and 2015 will be retired one after another, which will free up some vacancies and bring opportunities to the incremental market of pure electric buses in 2022, which is expected to usher in the fast lane of growth, thus providing convenience for consumers to buy cars.
The operating costs of fuel buses have further increased, forcing more customers to buy electric buses
Since the beginning of the epidemic in 2020, the sales volume of the bus industry has been declining, and the entire industry has almost been frozen. The introduction of the notice and the statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are undoubtedly expected to become a spring breeze in the bus industry and promote the recovery of the bus industry.
In addition, the recent fuel prices continue to rise, and the advantages of pure electric buses are more prominent. It can be said that in 2022, the overall bus industry sales are expected to increase compared with 2021 and 2020, of which the proportion of new energy buses will be higher.
It can be said that with these policies, consumers can safely purchase new energy buses.
Conclusion
The newly introduced operating subsidy policy has many benefits for the new energy bus industry. The bus industry, especially the new energy bus, has been exploring the industry lows for several consecutive years, and with the help of the operation subsidy policy, it is also time to achieve a cyclical "rebound".