100 billion blue ocean nuggets: commercial is expected to become a breakthrough in power exchange

Since the replacement power station was written into the government work report in 2020, the state has successively introduced policies to promote, giants have increased the number of power exchanges, and the power exchange industry chain has taken off rapidly, becoming a blue ocean where everyone is eager to dig for gold.

The Beijing News shell financial reporter combed and found that there are now 30 A-share power exchange concept stocks. In addition, a series of car companies such as the trillion-dollar lithium battery giant Ningde Times, BAIC, and SAIC Motor have continuously entered the game to change electricity. China Telecom Union predicts that by 2035, China's power exchange service market space will reach 120 billion yuan.

However, Tesla is constantly pouring cold water on the replacement power station, and the reason behind it is also related to the difficult pain points of building the replacement power station. Huaxi Securities pointed out that the investment recovery cycle of a single substation is about 5.21 years.

"I personally believe that the power exchange is a phased, small-scale, targeted product", Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Association of Passenger Transporters, said that the large-scale expansion of civil substations is facing certain difficulties, but at present, "double carbon" is constantly advancing, and the substation can also be expanded in a small range, such as Weilai for car owners to carry out business, or in the commercial aspect of taxis, heavy trucks business.

Giants have increased their size, and commercial and civilian have been parallel

The Beijing News reporter learned from industry insiders that at present, in the industrial chain of the substation, the upstream mainly refers to the power exchange equipment and battery companies, which include Brontë, HKUST Intelligence, Yishite, etc., and also include many battery manufacturers, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, etc.

Among them, Easyste mentioned in the 2020 annual report that the company's energy storage, intelligent power exchange cabinet and other businesses have become new profit growth points. Based on the gradually strong demand of the charging and replacing market in the past two years, a new generation of operation and maintenance platform 2.0 was launched. In December 2021, EasySite responded that the company is currently mainly involved in the power exchange business for logistics delivery, such as two-wheeled and three-wheeled electric vehicles and specific operating scenarios such as mines and terminal trucks, and has not yet involved the field of passenger car exchange.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech has also publicly stated that the power exchange model is worth encouraging as a new business model. In August 2020, Guoxuan Hi-Tech said in response to investors' questions that the company has a layout in the electrification of heavy trucks and power exchange.

CATL launched the power exchange brand EVOGO on January 18, 2022, and its combined power exchange overall solution can be adapted to 80% of the pure electric platform developed models that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next three years. CATL even believes that the ultimate solution for models in the range of 80,000-120,000 yuan will be EVOGO's power exchange products.

The entry of the lithium battery boss Ningde era has boosted the industry's confidence and expectations for power exchange to a certain extent.

When the big guys have laid out the upstream of the replacement power station, the middle reaches of the replacement power station, that is, the operators, are also betting. At present, the power exchange operators mainly include Aodong New Energy, Weilai, Botan Technology and so on.

On December 10, 2021, WEILAI announced that it would complete the 2021 power station replacement target ahead of schedule, and the completion of the G30 Lianhuo Expressway East China Sea Service Area Replacement Power Station, marking the official launch of the 700th substation of Weilai Automobile Company. By February 21, 2022, NIO had laid 836 substations across the country.

In response to the reporter's interview, Weilai said that whether it is driving a vehicle from Harbin to Beijing through the Beijing-Harbin Expressway, or from Beijing to Guangzhou and Shenzhen through the highway, there are power stations along the way, "about every 120 kilometers - 200 kilometers there is a power station, and a battery can support 500 kilometers - 600 kilometers, as long as you do not go to the northwest self-driving tour, there is basically no problem."

According to Weilai, the current substation can provide an average of 20,000 + power exchanges per day, and "the power exchange service capacity reserve is more sufficient to meet the subsequent rapid growth demand".

The downstream of the industrial chain is mainly for users, such as Aodong New Energy mainly for taxis, Geely, BAIC, etc. mainly for private cars and taxis. Others, such as heavy trucks and buses, have gradually begun to enter the outbreak period of power exchange.

In September 2020, Geely Group released a power exchange model, announcing that it would replace the power of vehicles within 2 minutes at the fastest time; in October, Geely laid out power exchanges in Chongqing and Jinan. In January 2022, Geely and Lifan announced the joint establishment of a joint venture company, Ruilan. By 2025, Ruilan will build more than 5,000 extremely fast substations, covering more than 100 core cities.

BAIC launched version 4.0 substation at the end of 2020, and the efficiency of power exchange has been improved. Previously, BAIC's taxis could already change electricity.

In March 2021, SAIC Roewe power exchange models and Aodong New Energy Shanghai power exchange service network were completed, and the replacement power station put into operation can accommodate 60 batteries when fully loaded, and up to 1200 power exchanges can be achieved in a single day. It is understood that this part of the model is also mainly used for commercial taxis.

Also in March 2021, Fawer co., Ltd. announced that it has jointly invested in the establishment of a joint venture with Aodong New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., FAW Chuxing Technology Co., Ltd. and Nanjing FAW Innovation Fund Investment Management Center (Limited Partnership) to carry out related business to provide power exchange services for brand vehicles of China FAW Group Co., Ltd. FAW also joined the power exchange track.

In 2035, the power exchange market may reach 120 billion yuan

The rapid scale and take-off of the substation industry chain is inseparable from the successive introduction of a series of boosting policies by the state.

In 2020, the substation was written into the government work report, proposing to "expand the construction of charging piles to increase charging piles, substations and other facilities".

According to the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)", by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 20% of automobile sales, and it is urgent to accelerate the construction of charging and replacement infrastructure and improve the service level of charging infrastructure.

Since then, local governments have responded to the call. Henan Province officially issued the "Henan Province to accelerate the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure several policies" proposed that to increase the construction of charging infrastructure, by 2025, the province has built more than 2,000 centralized charging and replacement power stations.

Many people in the industry also mentioned that the entry of lithium battery giant Ningde era may accelerate the unification of battery standardization, but whether the formulation of this standardization can be completed by a company, and what kind of attitude government departments, agencies, and manufacturers hold behind it, the results are not yet known.

Under the continuous increase of policies and car companies, a blue ocean of electricity replacement has been formed.

According to the Huaxi Securities Research Report, 1,200 substations have been built in the mainland in 2021, and it is expected that the number of new domestic substations will reach more than 9,000 in 2025. In 2021, the value of domestic substation equipment is 1.7 billion yuan, the industry is still in its infancy, and it is expected that in 2025, the demand for new power exchange equipment in China will reach 12 billion yuan. China Electricity Union predicts that the market space of China's power exchange service will reach 120 billion yuan in 2035.

However, the research report shows that assuming a fixed investment (including batteries) of a single substation is 5 million yuan, the depreciation period is 10 years, and the operating costs such as land rent and labor costs are 600,000 yuan / year.

According to the research report, the theoretical maximum number of daily services is 200-300 times, but the actual utilization rate may be low, which is assumed to be 50 times here. If the amount of each charge is 70kWh (optimistic), the charging service fee is 1.8 yuan / kWh. In summary, the charging payment income was 2.2995 million yuan, the net profit was 959,600 yuan, the net profit margin was about 42%, and the investment recovery cycle was 5.21 years.

Brokers said that the future investment payback period may fall to less than 2 years, and the net interest rate will remain at a high level.

Unlike companies that have increased the number of power stations, Tesla is constantly "pouring cold water" on the power station, and the reason behind it is also related to the difficult pain points of building the power station.

Tesla vice president Tao Lin previously said that in 2013 Tesla tried to change the power, but the company has always believed that the charging mode is the best way to supplement large-scale civilian electric vehicles.

It is difficult for civilian vehicles to unify commercial or become the development direction

For Tao Lin's statement, some insiders believe that this is also because Tesla realized that it is difficult to achieve cross-brand sharing of power stations, and the operational efficiency is lower than that of charging piles.

Tao Lin also added later, "Taxi bus freight cars are suitable for power exchange, because the battery specifications are unified, the demand is predictable, the lines are relatively fixed, and there is no need to decentralize the layout of the power station." Therefore, the electricity exchange facility mainly serves public transportation. Civil high-power fast charging is more convenient and stable. ”

Changing electricity or charging has always been one of the difficult choices faced by car companies, car owners and investors.

In this regard, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the All-China Passenger Transport Association, told reporters that because of the higher cost of electricity replacement and the larger area, it is also facing certain construction difficulties in first-tier cities.

"I personally believe that the power exchange is a phased, small-scale, targeted product", Cui Dongshu said, with the charging speed of the charging pile accelerated, the efficiency increased, coupled with the charging pile footprint is smaller, more flexible and other situations, the development of charging piles is more convenient, more convenient and popular.

However, Cui Dongshu also added that the substation can be expanded in a small area, such as Weilai for car owners to carry out business, or for the city's taxis, heavy trucks to carry out business.

Referring to the replacement of civilian vehicles, Zhong Shi, an analyst in the automotive industry, also analyzed that the chassis system of the car battery is very precise, each specification is different, the personalization is strong, it is impossible to formulate a unified power exchange specification, and it is difficult to formulate a unified national standard specification.

"We assume that in the future, we can reach a very ideal state, that is, to break through the technical bottleneck, all brands and all models can achieve power exchange at the substation, can we get investment in this situation?" He said.

In addition, Zhong Shi also said that the replacement power station also needs to charge the battery that has been replaced, which means that the cost of the replacement power station is superimposed on the cost of power exchange and charging, especially the need to store battery packs of various models to maintain turnover, and the investment cost is very high.

In this regard, Founder Securities Research Report pointed out that based on efficiency and cost considerations, the power exchange model will first be promoted on a large scale in the field of operating vehicles in the short term. Dual-shift taxis with longer daily operating hours are more suitable for switching models. However, the research report also said that in order to promote the large-scale development of the power exchange model, it is necessary to work together from the aspects of policy, supervision and standardization.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Lin Zi Editor Xu Chao proofread jia ning