Space card race gunshot: satellite Internet into investment "blue ocean" in the vast universe

Cai Lian News Agency, April 2 (Editor Liu Yue) Looking at the world, the low-orbit satellite Internet has set off an infrastructure frenzy. According to the international mainstream satellite constellation planning, more than 74,000 satellites will be launched, and more than 4,000 satellites have been launched so far, and the number of users has exceeded one million. China, Canada and other countries have also launched ultra-large-scale constellation projects, and low-orbit satellites have become an arena for a new round of scientific and technological revolution.

First come, first served, the space card race has already gunshot. Earth's low-Earth orbit can accommodate up to about 60,000 satellites, and the current international satellite frequency and orbit use rights are obtained by "first come, first occupy" competition, and if the life of the launched satellite expires, it can be relaunched for supplementation, resulting in a "first seizure and always win" situation, if you can seize the opportunity, you can fully show your advantage in the subsequent competition. Space orbit and spectrum resources are scarce strategic resources, and satellite Internet has been included in the mainland's "new infrastructure" as a key development direction.

List of recent news related to satellite Internet at home and abroad

Guosheng Securities Research Report pointed out that satellite Internet is a new highland of competition among major powers. In the military field, the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield Starlink shines brightly and "Star Shield" has begun to serve the US Department of Defense. In the civil field, more than 70% of the earth's geographical space currently involves 3 billion people who have failed to achieve Internet coverage, and satellite Internet is one of the important means to solve the digital divide of the earth's "Internet-free" population. In addition, satellite internet will play a unique role in the digital economy. First, help 5G improve coverage, become a pioneer in 6G technology, and build an integrated air-space-ground network. Second, open up a new track for mobile phones to connect directly to satellites; Third, through technology integration, promote the industrial Internet.

According to the "Space: Investing in the "Ultimate Frontier" report released by the US investment bank Morgan Stanley, it is expected that the value of the global space economy will reach $1 trillion by 2040, and satellite Internet will account for 50% of market growth, and in the most optimistic scenario, it will reach 70%. UBS predicts that in addition to the growth of traditional satellites, military space applications and other fields, the space economy will also begin to have significant spillover effects in other areas represented by satellite broadband Internet.

SpaceX, Amazon and other European and American giants are vying to lay out satellite Internet construction with high investment and high return

Behind the general market scale of "astronomical figures" is a very high industry threshold, and the investment scale of satellite Internet companies is huge. According to the American Satellite Industry Association, the satellite Internet industry chain can be divided into four major links, namely satellite manufacturing, satellite launch, ground receiving and transmitting equipment industry and satellite operation management service industry. Relevant information shows that the largest cost of satellite Internet is in the launch link, and the current domestic single line cost is between 5 million and 10 million yuan.

Low-orbit satellite space orbit and spectrum resources are increasingly tight, European and American satellite deployment is leading, OneWeb, O3b, SpaceX, Telesat and many other European and American companies have proposed satellite Internet plans. According to data from the ITU official website, as of December 31, 2022, a total of 2,240 NGSO satellite network plans have been declared worldwide.

It is worth mentioning that SpaceX's Starlink achieved rapid commercialization in the last year. According to information made public by SpaceX last December, Starlink has more than 1 million active users. That's a significant increase from the 250,000 users disclosed by a company executive at an industry event in March 2022. At the end of February, Starlink also adjusted its fee prices, which is the second consecutive year that it has raised the price of its services. Amazon has also picked up the pace and rushed to get a share. The company even bluntly said that compared with Musk's Starlink and other competitors, its own products are "smaller, stronger and more affordable."

Overinvesting is a highlight. Taking Starlink as an example, as of December 2022, Starlink has more than 1 million users, with annual revenue of more than US$1 billion based on a monthly service fee of US$100. Some institutions estimate that the cost of all satellites launched by Starlink is $600 million, which means that it can cover the cost in less than a year of operation and begin to enter the stage of high returns. Musk said in an interview that after Starlink is completed, it is expected to generate $30 billion a year.

China Satellite Internet Fast Follow-up "Chief Designer" China Star Network is expected to be positioned as the fourth largest communication operator China Satcom and China Satellite stock prices soar The spark of private enterprises is gradually becoming a fire

Data show that in 2021, China ranked second with 499 satellites in orbit in the world, second only to the United States. Guosheng Securities pointed out that China's satellite Internet started late but developed rapidly, followed up quickly, and a number of projects laid out the Chinese version of "Starlink". About a year after the launch of the Starlink program, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation and Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation proposed the "Hongyan Project" and "Hongyun Project" low-orbit satellite communication constellation plans respectively. When Musk's Starlink took the lead in commercial trial operation, the mainland Internet constellation had also completed the first round of investment.

The mainland satellite Internet industry is a "blue ocean" to be expanded, and the construction is timely. In 2021, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission established China Star Network to become the "chief designer" of China's satellite Internet, planning to move later, and making overall planning to promote the comprehensive and rapid development of the industry. China Star Network is expected to be positioned as the fourth largest communications operator after China Telecom (No. 23), China Unicom (No. 24) and China Mobile (No. 25) in the SASAC Enterprise Directory No. 26.

From 2016 to 2018, central enterprises such as aerospace science and technology, aerospace science and industry, China Electronics Technology, and China Telecom have proposed their own low-orbit Internet constellation construction plans, and have successively launched test stars. In September 2020, the application for 12,992 giant constellations of GW project was approved, opening a new chapter in the overall construction of Starnet Company, and the first batch of satellites in 2022 will be accompanied by the first satellite launch, Guosheng Securities believes that 2023 will be the first year of China's Starnet construction, and the satellite Internet is expected to usher in a ten-year growth period.

From the perspective of secondary market performance, the cumulative maximum stock prices of China Satcom and China Satellite since their lows in April 2022 have reached 204% and 113%, respectively.

Private space forces are crucial to the construction of mainland satellite Internet. Minsheng Securities Research Report pointed out that commercial space companies such as Galaxy Power, Interstellar Glory, Blue Arrow Aerospace, Zero One Space, Tianyi Research Institute, Galaxy Aerospace, Micro-nano Starry Sky, Changguang Satellite, and Aerospace Driving Star have risen rapidly, and private forces have innate sensitivity and adaptability to the low-cost, large-scale, rapid iteration, full competition and other elements required for commercial space launches, and can achieve rapid growth with the blessing of capital. The spark gradually became the trend of the plain, and the rapid development of private aerospace met the turning point.

Specifically, the first batch of commercial aerospace enterprises in the mainland started in 2014, and after 8 years of development, it has gradually grown into excellent private commercial space companies such as Galaxy Power and Galaxy Aerospace, and private forces have fully penetrated into all links such as launch vehicles, rocket engines, satellites and upstream and downstream supporting facilities, forming a strong supplement to state-owned forces. The private Galaxy Aerospace winning the bid for the Starnet satellite project, Galaxy Power has been successfully launched into orbit for many consecutive times, and Blue Arrow Aerospace's first large-thrust liquid oxygen methane engine has been challenged into orbit, all of which show that the private aerospace force is about to usher in an industrial inflection point, providing new options for the construction of China's Star Network.