The thought of you paying attention to me made me a little excited
Author: Yang Zheng Shen Qi
1
Tesla stopped production and the epidemic cut off the supply chain
On March 28, according to Bloomberg news, Tesla's super factory in Shanghai began to stop production, Tesla stopped production for 2 days on March 16 and 17, according to the Data of the China Passenger Car Association, Tesla's Shanghai factory manufactured 56,515 cars in February. Of these, 23,200 were sold in the domestic market and 33,315 were exported overseas. In addition to Tesla, the production capacity of some other vehicle factories has also been hindered by the epidemic.
In the upstream of the vehicle factory, according to the news of "Automan" magazine, almost all of the world's top 100 parts and components companies have set up factories in Shanghai and surrounding areas. Bosch, Aptiv, BorgWarner, Denso, ZF, Yanfeng Visteon, as well as chip manufacturers Freescale and Deyi are involved in Tier 1 suppliers. Among them, auto parts giants Aptiv and ThyssenKrupp have said that they have stopped work.
The uncertainty brought about by the repeated epidemics has exposed the fragility of the complex and globally laid-out automotive industry supply chain.
2
Raw material prices have risen
As the core component of the new energy vehicle power battery, the price of lithium carbonate, its key raw material, has soared, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has continued to rise from 68,000 yuan / ton at the beginning of last year to about 500,000 yuan / ton today, an increase of nearly 8 times. According to the previous article ([Blue Ocean Economic Observation] Crazy Lithium Carbonate in New Energy), in the short term, compared with the rapid expansion of downstream production, the capacity growth capacity of upstream lithium salts and lithium mines is limited.
In addition, the futures prices of steel, aluminum and copper, which are important raw materials for automobile manufacturing, have remained high after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
3
New energy vehicles are growing against the trend, and supply exceeds demand
According to the March car sales data released by the Association on April 7. The domestic passenger car market is expected to retail sales of 1.501 million units in March 2022, down 15% year-on-year.
However, from a structural point of view, the sales of new energy vehicles are still increasing significantly, according to the data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in the first quarter of 2022, the cumulative output of new energy vehicles was 1.293 million units, an increase of 142.0% year-on-year; The cumulative sales of new energy vehicles were 1.257 million units, an increase of 138.6% year-on-year. Production of new energy vehicles in March was 465,000 units, up 114.8% year-on-year; Sales increased by 114.1% y/y to 484,000 units.
In addition, according to the data of the Association, in terms of the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 28.2% in March, an increase of 17.6% year-on-year. The penetration rate in 2021 is 14.8%, of which this value was as high as 22.6% at one point in December last year.
Obviously, under the condition that the upstream automotive industry chain is unstable and raw material prices remain high, new energy vehicles will maintain a situation of short supply, Tesla China only appeared in March 3 price increases, in the US market price increase from last year more than 10 rounds, it can be seen that new energy vehicles have become a seller's market. In addition, in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Europe began to adjust the strategic planning of future energy, once again proposing to take new energy power, including nuclear power, as the direction of future planning, to replace the dependence on imported fossil fuels, which will also stimulate The demand for new energy vehicles in Europe.
4
New energy vehicles and power grids
The mainland's energy structure is "short of oil and gas", and electric vehicles are more likely to be favored in the face of energy security, especially in the environment of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the international oil price once soared above $100 / barrel. From the end of March to the beginning of April, the price of No. 92 gasoline across the country remained at 8.6-8.8 yuan / liter, and the price of No. 95 gasoline was 9.2-9.4 yuan / liter. This further magnifies the advantages of new energy vehicles.
The tide of power rationing in the fall of 2021 has caused many new energy vehicle owners, mainly electric vehicles, to queue up to charge. Although on October 12, 2021, when the Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced the September automobile production and sales data, it is estimated that the charging power consumption of electric vehicles only accounts for 0.13% of the total electricity consumption, which will not cause social power shortage, but the affordability of the power grid cannot only be considered by this average general situation, but also need to consider extreme situations.
Taking the Tesla V3 super charging pile as an example, the power of the V3 super charging pile reaches 300kw, and according to the peak electricity load of the provinces sold by Polaris power grid as of February 2021, assuming that 10,000 electric vehicles are charged through the Tesla V3 super charging pile at the same time, the electricity load reaches 3 million kw, accounting for nearly 1/10 of the peak electricity consumption in Shanghai, accounting for about 12.21% of the peak electricity consumption in Beijing. According to the Shanghai Municipal Public Security Bureau, by the end of 2021, the number of new energy vehicles in Shanghai has reached 635,000, accounting for 14.33% of the total number of vehicles, and once the supercharger pile is popularized, the impact on the power grid during its centralized charging period (such as night) will be very obvious. At the same time, its volatility is very obvious, and the charging period of most cars is similar, so it also puts forward higher requirements for grid resilience and intelligent dispatch.
5. At a time when oil prices are high and energy security is getting more and more attention, new energy vehicles are becoming more and more popular, and the benefits will be the entire industrial chain.
It is worth noting that there are still many bottlenecks to be solved for new energy vehicles. In the uncertain environment of the epidemic changes, the upstream production of new energy vehicles is under multiple pressures of insufficient supply of raw materials, rising prices and limited production capacity; In the process of charging new energy vehicles, it is not only the construction of charging piles, but also the comprehensive improvement of the power grid and the improvement of other infrastructure.
Again, look for a small market space, focus on solving a problem, and with the long-term growth of the market, a super enterprise can be born.
Source: Blue Seas Enjoy
Producer | Ye Wenxian
Editor-in-charge| Gao Ping
Picture | Wang Jie
Edited | Wang Jie