In 2021, domestic new energy vehicles sold 3.52 million units, an increase of 157.5% year-on-year, and the number of ownership reached 7.84 million, exceeding expectations at the beginning of the year.
The rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles has accelerated the development of the domestic charging and replacing industry. Based on the differences in the applicability of vehicles and batteries, power grids and land resource requirements of charging and power exchange modes, the industry generally believes that the mainland will continue the energy supplementary market pattern of charging as the main and power exchange supplement in the medium term, and in the next decade, the market demand for charging piles will be further expanded, and the growth of the power exchange mode is also expected to be strengthened.
Although the industry prospects are promising, charging and power exchange operators are still trapped in a profit dilemma. In fact, the commercial feasibility and prosperity of downstream operating enterprises directly provide logical support and demand guarantee for the development of the entire industrial chain. This paper sorts out the development and evolution path of the domestic charging and replacing industry in recent years, the development status of the charging and swapping industry and the short-term problems faced by operators, and then explores which types of enterprises may become the final winners of the new energy vehicle replenishment war.
1, the 20-year review of the melee: charging ushered in a stage victory
From the perspective of the development of domestic electric vehicle energy replenishment methods, charging starts later than power replacement.
In 2000, Aodong New Energy began to explore power exchange technology, and in 2005, the first substation facility was set up in Lanzhou. It was not until 2006 that BYD built its first charging station in Shenzhen, which was officially opened on May 31.
The market is volatile, and getting started early doesn't necessarily mean early success.
At the beginning of 2011, Liu Zhenya, general manager of the State Grid, said that the State Grid determined the basic commercial operation mode of electric vehicles as follows: power exchange as the mainstay, plug-in and charging as a supplement, centralized charging, and unified distribution.
However, on May 23, 2011, Wang Binggang, head of the Supervision and Consulting Expert Group on Major Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Projects of the National 863 Program, objected, arguing that it is difficult for domestic consumers who pay attention to the integrity of private property to accept the consumption mode of electricity replacement.
In 2012, some independent brand car companies directly refused to adopt the power exchange mode, and Fu Zhenxing, director of the power system department of SAIC Motor, said, "In terms of passenger cars, the power exchange mode will not be considered." ”
The real spring of charging mode can be said to have begun in 2014.
At the beginning of 2014, the State Grid proposed to optimize the planning and layout of the charging and replacement service network in accordance with the principles of leading fast charging, taking into account slow charging, guiding power exchange, and economical and practical, and determined the development mode and direction of the charging industry.
After that, the State Grid announced the full liberalization of the distributed generation grid-connected project and the electric vehicle charging and replacement facilities market, which completely detonated the entire industry, and a large amount of capital began to pour into the charging station market.
This year, Beijing, Tianjin, Hefei, Shanghai and other places have begun the journey of large-scale construction of charging stations, the charging industry began to initially form a complete supply chain pattern, and the head enterprises have gradually emerged.
It is worth noting that in the process of charging mode gradually becoming the mainstream of the market, charging stations have also ushered in commercialization opportunities earlier.
In 2009, Shanghai Electric Power Company invested in the construction of Shanghai Caoxi Electric Vehicle Charging Station, which is the first electric vehicle charging station with commercial operation functions in China.
In terms of substations, due to the industry in the early stage of development, the lack of platform sharing, coupled with the policy from charging and replacing parallel to encouraging the development of charging, in 2010, Aodong New Energy operated in a commercial mode for the first time at the Guangzhou Asian Games, until 2016, the company's large-scale power exchange commercial operation promotion of the prelude to kicked off.
The commercial application scenario of heavy-duty truck power exchange appeared later, and was landed by THE NINGDE era in July 2020, providing efficient power exchange solutions for the first batch of Futian Zhilan new energy power-changing heavy trucks.
In January 2022, with the release of the "Implementation Opinions of the National Development and Reform Commission and Other Departments on Further Improving the Service Guarantee Capacity of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", the pattern of charging in the domestic new energy vehicle supplemental energy market with charging as the mainstay and power replacement as a supplement has basically taken shape, which also means that the charging industry has ushered in a stage victory.
2. The profit problem of charging pile operators
According to the requirements of the "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)", by 2020, the continental vehicle-to-pile ratio will reach a reasonable level close to 1:1. But in fact, at the end of 2020, the "vehicle-to-pile ratio" of domestic new energy vehicles was 2.9:1 (4.92 million cars and 1.681 million charging piles). As of December 2021, the vehicle-to-pile ratio is 3:1, not falling but rising.
Zhang Kangkang, a senior analyst at The New Energy Research Institute of Qingyan Huake, said that the explosive growth period of electric vehicles in the mainland came earlier than the industry expected, which caused the charging pile layout to fail to keep up. According to the data of the Association, from January to December 2021, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the mainland reached 14.8%, which has exceeded 10%, and 10% is recognized as a critical value for the development of emerging industries from the cultivation period to the blowout period.
Zhang Xiang, a researcher at the Automobile Industry Innovation Research Center of North China University of Technology, told First Finance and Economics that most charging pile operators have difficulty in profitability, and only a few head enterprises such as special calls and star charging are profitable in some cities, and the superimposed subsidies have declined, resulting in low enthusiasm of operators, which is an important reason for the lack of public charging pile construction.
Indeed, in recent years, charging pile operations have generally faced the problems of low utilization rate and difficult profitability.
Some machinery and equipment industry analysts told First Finance that charging piles are essentially infrastructure, social benefits are greater than operating income, resulting in charging piles themselves profitability is not easy; single pile utilization rate is one of the key factors to improve profitability and shorten the return on investment cycle, but the lack of utilization rates has bound the pace of charging pile profitability.
According to Dongxing Securities, CITIC Securities and other estimates, the breakeven utilization rate of charging piles is about 8%-9%, while the average daily effective utilization rate of domestic public charging piles in 2021 is only about 6%, which makes the charging operation industry as a whole still in the loss stage, and only the head enterprises are barely profitable.
Among them, Trident (300001. SZ) reached breakeven in 2018, with an average utilization rate of about 8% and an average utilization rate of about 9% in 2019, having passed the break-even point. Star Charging said that the company has achieved sustained profitability by September 2020, and as for the specific utilization rate, the company has not announced it.
An obvious problem is that in the case of a vehicle-to-pile ratio of 3:1, there has been an underutilization situation, if in order to reduce the vehicle-to-pile ratio and blindly accelerate the construction of charging piles, when can the industry's profitability problem be solved?
Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that since private cars can be charged at home, the low utilization rate of public charging piles is reasonable. In this regard, the construction of charging piles should focus on fast charging, attract users, improve utilization, and thus increase the revenue of charging pile operators.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Joint Association, believes that due to the small demand for private car charging and the uncertainty of frequency, it is difficult to rely on private cars alone to make profits, and charging pile operators should focus on large charging equipment such as buses and logistics vehicles and build piles on demand.
In recent years, charging operators have also continued to work in this direction. In May 2018, Star Charging developed a 500kW liquid-cooled high-power charger, claiming that it can be charged for 8 minutes and have an endurance of 400 kilometers. Star Charging's high-power equipment is mainly for commercial operating vehicles, the company's chairman Shao Danwei said that now a parking space output of 8 to 10 times the original electricity, can help operators share a lot of rent.
In 2020, Tlaidian developed an integrated high-power liquid-cooled charger that can achieve a high-performance output of 600A maximum current and a maximum power of 600kW for single gun charging. Trident said on the investor interactive platform on January 28, 2022 that the company's charging pile can charge trucks and has been applied.
3. The operation of the substation is not a "good business" at present.
As a typical heavy asset, the replacement power station operator is also far from the moment of profit. The high initial input cost is an important reason.
The above-mentioned machinery and equipment industry analysts told First Finance that at present, the replacement power station basically needs about 2 million yuan of equipment + about 2 million yuan of batteries, and the total cost is almost 5 million yuan.
GCL Energy (002015. SZ) introduced in an investor survey on December 29, 2021, that the company's current substation is outsourced, with a cost of about 5 million yuan, of which about 2.9 million yuan is invested in the replacement station equipment of passenger cars, the battery cost is about 20%, and other costs such as electricity.
The construction cost of a replacement power station in Weilai is reported to be about 2 million yuan, but it does not include site rent, equipment depreciation and other expenses. In addition, cbn and economics visited the Weilai replacement power station and found that the second-generation replacement power station that claimed to be unattended still had staff providing services, and the labor costs were not completely reduced.
In terms of Aodong New Energy, Huang Chunhua, general manager of the company's public affairs center, previously said in an interview that Guangzhou's latest 4.0 version of the flagship station, a station has 60 battery reserves, in addition to the need for power capacity increase and cable laying, plus rent, etc., the basic investment is 10 million yuan, "heavy asset operation, financial pressure." ”
From the perspective of the utilization rate of the substation, due to cost considerations, the domestic passenger car substation and the commercial vehicle substation are generally built separately. The breakeven points of different types of substations are different. CITIC Securities believes that the break-even point of passenger car replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 20%, and the break-even point of commercial vehicle replacement power stations corresponds to a utilization rate of about 10%. However, the utilization rate of the substations currently in operation generally does not reach this level.
Taking Weilai Replacement Power Station as an example, CBN learned that if the tram is equipped with a household charging pile, it can enjoy 4 times / month of free power exchange; if you do not choose to be equipped with a household charging pile, you can enjoy 6 times / month of free power exchange. According to the calculation of the average replacement of electricity per vehicle per week, a replacement power station must radiate about 350 vehicles to support 50 orders a day.
The number of battery warehouses in the second generation of Weilai replacement power station is 13, the maximum service capacity is 312 times / day, calculated according to 50 orders a day, the utilization rate is only 16.03% (50 / 312 * 100 = 16.03%).
By the end of 2021, WEILAI has launched nearly 800 substations, requiring 280,000 vehicles to support the share of 50 orders a day. Considering that some car owners choose to install home charging piles, coupled with the fact that some car owners are fixed and charged outside, it means that Weilai needs a total sales volume of more than 280,000 vehicles to cover the cost of substation replacement. As of 2021, the cumulative delivery volume of NIO is less than 200,000 vehicles.
Despite the short-term profitability, in the context of policy promotion, rising electric vehicle ownership and accelerated entry of industrial capital, the outlet of the replacement power station is still quietly coming.
Recently, some insiders in the exchange of power exchange industry said that more than 90% of the current car companies believe that the power exchange mode is feasible, and the future will gradually see more and more battery adaptation and replacement power stations in market practice.
Connect data datayes! According to the report, as of November 2021, the number of domestic substations is only 1192, and it is expected that by 2025, the demand for supporting substations will exceed 28,000. According to this calculation, there is more than 20 times the growth space of the replacement power station in 2021-2025, and the CAGR exceeds 110%.
Can existing operational efficiencies and profitability support the industry's rapid growth? The above-mentioned machinery and equipment industry analysts said that it also depends on the improvement of technology and the binding of downstream.
For example, compared with the first generation, the number of battery warehouses, the maximum number of services, and the charging capacity of the Weilai second-generation replacement power station have been significantly improved; GCL Energy is also striving to be compatible with multiple models such as passenger cars and commercial vehicles in the same replacement power station, striving to achieve two lanes of power exchange at the same time, and jointly developing shared battery packs with the upstream; Aodong New Energy's 4.0 replacement power station has shortened the power exchange time to 20 seconds; the newly launched EVOGO of the Ningde era is suitable for 80% pure electric models, and consumers can flexibly match the number of batteries according to the needs of different mileages.
4, the industry pattern: the strong Hengqiang, the third party easy to win?
According to Tonglian data datayes! By the end of 2021, there are 13 charging piles operated by charging operators nationwide with more than 10,000 units, of which Star Charging, Special Call and State Grid operate 257,000, 252,000 and 196,000 units respectively, continuing to maintain the market position of the top three. Overall, the number of charging piles operated by Top13 operators accounted for 92.9% of the total, and the total proportion of the top three companies accounted for more than 60%.
Jin Weichun, chairman of Shenzhen Renhe Capital Management Co., Ltd., believes that charging infrastructure is a capital-intensive industry, and in the current uncertain profit prospects, only enterprises that can continuously invest huge amounts of money can finally win.
In fact, the two leading companies of charging piles, Special Call and Star Charging, have continued to raise funds vigorously in recent years.
Since the A round of financing in March 2020, the cumulative financing of Telai has reached 3.3 billion yuan in more than 1 year. The most recent was in June 2021, when Trident announced that its subsidiary Telai intends to introduce strategic investors such as GLP, and China Three Gorges Group through capital increase and share expansion. GLP, State Power Investment, China Three Gorges Group and other strategic investors intend to increase the capital of Telai through themselves or their funds, and the price of the additional shares is RMB 14.60 per share, with a post-investment valuation of about 13.6 billion yuan and a total capital increase of about 300 million yuan.
The same goes for Star Charging. The company has always adhered to the "cloud pipe end" business model, that is, taking into account hardware equipment, charging field stations, and software platforms. In September 2020, Star Charging received a Series A financing of 855 million yuan; in October of the same year, Star Charging's parent company Wanbang Digital Energy opened its listing plan.
The entry of the State Grid marks that the development of the charging pile industry has entered a new stage. Tianfeng Securities said that the previous construction of charging piles was mostly for private enterprises to capture land as kings, focusing on short-term interests, the overall layout lacked long-term planning, and resources were scattered to be integrated. Around 2020, the State Grid closely followed the central command, repeatedly emphasized accelerating the construction of charging piles, and continued to make breakthroughs.
In 2020, the State Grid invested 2.7 billion yuan in charging piles, far exceeding the 1 billion yuan of special calls and star charging.
On November 20, 2021, the State Grid Electric Vehicle Company announced that the State Grid Smart Vehicle Networking Platform has accessed more than 1.03 million charging piles, covering 29 provinces and 273 cities across the country, serving 5.5 million electric vehicle consumers, becoming the world's most extensive, largest and most powerful charging pile network.
The construction of charging piles of the State Grid has its own inherent advantages. Jin Weichun said that the large amount of capital investment and a long return period have led to a high concentration of charging pile operators in the industry, which will maintain the competitive pattern of the strong Hengqiang.
Zhang Fan, director of the China Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Promotion Alliance, said that the industry is still in the process of wave development, and investors feel that market demand is pouring in, and then find it difficult to make a profit and exit. After a period of adjustment, the ownership of new energy vehicles reaches a certain scale, and charging pile operators gradually achieve breakeven, and the entire industry can develop healthily.
In terms of the power exchange industry, as of November 2021, there are 67,500 existing power exchange related enterprises in the mainland, and 33,600 new power exchange related enterprises were added in the first 10 months of 2021, an increase of 184.83% year-on-year. At present, the industry has four types of participants: third-party operators (such as GCL Energy, Aodong, etc.), battery suppliers (such as Ningde Times, etc.), energy central enterprises (such as the State Grid, etc.), and automakers (such as Geely, BAIC, etc.).
The latest research report of CITIC Securities believes that in the long run, third-party enterprises with strong industry resource integration capabilities, especially those promoted by battery standards and strong accumulation of local government resources, are expected to eventually win.