Original author / Dr. Patrick Pl tz
Compile /Aaron
Recently, due to the debut of the mainland hydrogen energy bus at the Beijing Winter Olympics, hydrogen fuel vehicles have become a hot topic.
However, Dr. Patrick Pl tz, head of the energy economics business at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation (ISI), recently published a high-profile critical article at Nature Electronics questioning the sustainable potential of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs).
In the article, Pl Tz directly states: "The technological and economic development of batteries and fast-charging technologies may soon make hydrogen-powered fuel cell electric vehicles redundant in road transport."
The rapid development of "pure batteries"
"While we've spent a lot on hydrogen fuel and its technology, we shouldn't repeat the sunk cost fallacy," Pl tz said in the article.
Compressed hydrogen has a higher energy density compared to pure electric vehicles and can be replenished in minutes, making fuel cell vehicles ideal for frequent long-distance travel. However, the actual driving range of pure electric vehicles is currently about 400 kilometers, and the latest generation of electric vehicles uses an 800-volt battery and takes only about 15 minutes to charge 200 kilometers.
This means that in the near future, with the full scale of battery economies of scale, as well as the cost of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure is further reduced and performance improved, fuel cell vehicles are likely to be unable to compete.
The "creeping development" of fuel cells
In addition, new energy trucks (Trucks) are an important product in the new energy industry. As an important target in the emission reduction strategy, heavy trucks are considered to be the most suitable products for the use of FC technology. However, Pl tz is not optimistic about the development prospects of hydrogen fuel cell trucks.
He proposed that there is no major technological breakthrough in fuel cell trucks, that is, fuel cell trucks have not yet entered the initial commercialization, except for several European truck manufacturers that have announced that they will "drive 100,000 fuel cell trucks on European roads by 2030" and two truck manufacturers have provided test tests.
In contrast, the first generation of pure electric trucks has been put into use. Although the current pure electric truck can only be used for limited urban transportation due to technical limitations, Pl tz believes that the technological breakthrough of the second generation of pure electric trucks will come earlier than the breakthrough of fuel cells.
Pl tz uses the situation in Europe as an example. In Europe, freight trucks typically travel more than 500 kilometers a day, which is obviously a challenge for heavy-duty all-electric trucks, but according to European driving regulations: "Every 4.5 hours of driving, the driver is forced to take a 45-minute break". However, if a high-power fast-charging battery with an average charging power of 800 kilowatts can be widely used by trucks, the second generation of pure electric trucks can charge for 45 minutes to get an endurance of 400 kilometers, which is enough for subsequent travel.
And, a European infrastructure proposal suggests that a high-power charger be needed every 50 kilometers along the main road network. At the same time, on public roads in Europe, trucks are being tested to charge trucks via overhead lines or road power. The system can support the long-distance operation of pure electric trucks on major highways, and drivers do not need to recharge during breaks.
Cost determinism
"Broad discussions about future energy technologies tend to focus on whether the technology is viable rather than the costs associated with the technology. This is often misleading because in many historical cases, cost is the key, not the technical attribute, and the potential for technological development and cost reduction is often underestimated." Pl tz said in the text.
For example, there are currently no technical issues preventing the manufacture of a pure electric car with a range of 1,000 kilometers, as this would simply require a large number of batteries to be installed in the car, but the current cost of batteries will make it an expensive car. In the long run, cost is decisive.
After that, Pl tz directly gave the conclusion: "Research shows that the total cost of using fuel cell trucks will be higher than that of charged pure electric trucks."
While some application scenarios have very high energy requirements or low cost sensitivity, such as heavy transport in remote areas or transportation of extremely heavy goods, which can be barely considered at cost, the question remains: "Are these niche areas large enough to sustain the commercialization and economies of scale required for fuel cell electric trucks and their infrastructure?"
Hydrogen is needed for the energy transition, and there are many related applications beyond road transport, including aviation, shipping and steel manufacturing. But Pl Tz believes the window of opportunity for hydrogen vehicles to build market share has closed. For trucks, the operating cost factor is more important than passenger cars, which makes the use of fuel cell trucks smaller.
If truck manufacturers don't start mass-producing fuel cell trucks as soon as possible to reduce costs, such vehicles will never succeed in low-carbon road transport. Pl tz said policymakers and industry need to make quick decisions; that is, whether the segment of fuel cell electric trucks is large enough to sustain the further development of hydrogen fuel technology.
About the original author:
Dr. Patrick Pl tz: Head of Energy Economics at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation (ISI). He studied physics at Graveswald, St. Petersburg and G tingen, and later philosophy and history at G tingen. After that, Pl tz studied the complex dynamics of cold atomic gases and received a doctorate in theoretical physics from the University of Heidelberg (Institute for Theoretical Physics).
From January to December 2011, Pl tz was a Researcher in Energy Policy and Energy Systems at the Competence Center at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation at ISI, and since January 2012 at the Competence Center for Energy Technology and Energy Systems Research Fellowship.
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