The new four modernizations clearly define "electrification, intelligence, interconnection and sharing" as the development direction of new energy vehicles. For now, although interconnection and sharing are not deeply felt, the electrification and advanced intelligence based on it are already within reach.
In today's era of continuous development, we are seeing the rapid development of automobile intelligence, so in the 2022 that has arrived, what intelligent technologies will we see?
How demanding is the hash rate? It can be said that in the current intelligent development, computing power is one of the core needs, and it is also one of the foundations for whether automatic driving can go further. At present, the autonomous vehicle specification chip has formed a batch application for the functional domain of ADAS/intelligent cockpit, and the large-capacity vehicle specification chip (single-chip hashrate >100TOPS) is carrying out test tests.
In 2022, the single-chip computing power of the vehicle-level computing chip can exceed 100 TOPS, and the mass production pre-installation application will be realized on many models, further providing the computing power foundation for the landing of high-level autonomous vehicles. What level is this? Take the Qualcomm 8155 chip that is currently mainstream in the market as an example, and its computing power is 4TOPS. At first glance, the gap between the two is very large, but this is because the use scenarios of the two are different.
Since the Qualcomm 8155 chip is mainly used in the smart cockpit, the requirements for computing power are not so high, and it is also necessary to pay attention to the energy consumption part. It is only taken out here to let everyone better understand how "scary" a chip with more than 100 TOPS hashrate is. Even roughly speaking, only 1-2 chips with such high computing power are needed to achieve L3 level automatic driving. Although this statement is not rigorous, it is full of confidence.
At present, in the mass production of vehicle-level chip enterprises, the head "players" are concentrated. Huawei Ascend 610 chip has a single-chip computing power of about 200TOPS, which has mass production capabilities and is also the product closest to Nvidia OrinX at present. In July 2021, Horizon released the Journey 5 chip, with a single-chip AI hash rate of up to 128TOPS, which is expected to achieve mass production in 2022; the Black Sesame A1000Pro chip, with a hash rate of 106TOPS, was successful in July 2021. With the increasing strength of domestic smart car chip companies, 2022 will usher in the introduction of large computing power chips explosive growth period.
How to improve the endurance of pure electric models, there is no open source or throttling. In open source, the most effective way is to assemble a high specific energy power battery. At present, high specific energy power batteries use high nickel cathode material 210mAh/g and silicon carbon anode material 500mAh/g, which mainly faces key challenges such as power battery safety and cycle durability in loading applications.
However, with the development and application of power battery system safety technologies such as active and passive integrated thermal safety protection, thermal runaway early fire detection and early warning devices and suppression and fire extinguishing devices, the 300Wh/kg high specific energy battery and system products that meet the safety and durability guarantee have completed technical development, and the cycle life can reach 1500 times, and the goal of large-scale production and batch application has been achieved. In 2021, many companies have achieved fruitful results in this field.
In November, Guoxuan Hi-Tech solid-state battery was officially matched, 300Wh/kg high-specific energy battery equipped with passenger cars; Fu Neng Technology developed an energy density of 330Wh/kg soft pack battery, the cycle can exceed 1500 times, has been sent to vehicle enterprise customers, planned to mass production and supply in 2023; Ewell lithium energy 300Wh/kg battery technology normal temperature cycle life can reach more than 3000 times; Zhongxin Aviation plans to launch a 350Wh/kg power battery that can be mass-produced within 3 years. Therefore, perhaps starting this year, the endurance threshold of pure electric models will be improved in quality.
What is a fuel cell, which is a technology that is regarded as one of the priorities of the future development of batteries, is one of the core of the application of long-distance heavy-duty fields. Compared with the ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries that we are familiar with on passenger cars, fuel cells are more suitable for the commercial vehicle field.
Starting from 2020, some companies have launched fuel cells that can be applied to many commercial models such as urban material vehicles, dump trucks, and heavy-duty truck tractors, such as the Hongtu G110. In addition, many enterprises such as Yu Hydrogen Power, Cyland, Infineon, Shanghai Hydrogen Xiong and many other enterprises are focusing on the development of high-power, long-life fuel cell systems for commercial vehicles and special vehicles.
At present, the research and development of fuel cells is being effectively and continuously promoted, and more prominent results have been achieved. For example, Shanghai Zhizhen New Energy Equipment Co., Ltd.'s new carbon-coated metal plate products, while reducing the cost of the plate by 40% to 50%, also extended the life expectancy of the metal plate fuel cell engine to more than 20,000 hours. It is believed that this year, under the joint promotion of the state and enterprises, fuel cells with a lifespan of more than 10,000 hours will shine in many scenarios such as logistics, long-distance transportation, docks, mines and long-distance passenger transport.
The importance of platforming is self-evident, and there is more architecture on top of the platform. But for new energy models, in the past, it was "impossible to find" to have a dedicated platform. Nowadays, with the continuous tilt of policies and markets towards the new energy market, automakers have also realized that in order to get better development, it is imperative to build a new pure electric platform.
In 2021, major car companies have launched pure electric vehicles based on dedicated platforms, and have achieved good market results, including Geely SEA Haohan architecture, SAIC Zhiji iO platform, Changan C385 platform, BYD e3.0 and so on. Among them, Changan's first pure electric platform model C385 was released in August, with a planned production capacity of 30,000 units; Zhiji L7 is expected to achieve mass production in the first half of 2022. At present, the newly developed electric passenger cars in China have generally adopted a dedicated platform. In 2020, its market share exceeded 36%, and in 2021, it may steadily grow to 46%. With the more extensive application of independent brand car companies, its market share is expected to exceed 65% in 2022.
The times are constantly evolving, and perhaps in the field of fuel vehicles, China no longer has any hope of catching up with foreign companies. But in the field of electrification and intelligence, the current China is not losing to any country. In 2022, with the further development of science and technology and the further control of the epidemic, it is believed that the development of domestic automobiles will usher in new opportunities and take-off, and we will witness a new history at that time.
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