Introduction: Watching SAIC Volkswagen is about to upgrade from the sales code of SAIC Group to a life-saving straw.
Five minutes after the close of trading on February 10, SAIC Motor released its January production and sales report. From the overall performance, SAIC Motor group with a single monthly sales of 455,600 vehicles and a year-on-year increase of 9.61%, creating the best level in the same period in the past three years.
So that the next day's opening SAIC Group stock price rose rapidly, perhaps during the noon market break, people have gradually perceived that there is something wrong with this performance, on the afternoon of February 11, SAIC Group's stock price continued to decline, and finally fell 0.21%, still struggling on the dividing line of 19 yuan / share.
One of the reasons why it has been treated like this by the capital market is to see who brought this highest growth rate in the past three years.
1 SAIC Volkswagen "savior has merit", SAIC-GM continues to drag its feet
In the January production and sales bulletin, the previous questions are easy to answer, and there is only one answer: SAIC Volkswagen.
According to the data, SAIC Volkswagen sold 130,600 vehicles in January, a year-on-year surge of 51.69%. This not only made it the second-highest-growth subsidiary of SAIC In the current period (the first place was SAIC-GM-Wuling Motors Indonesia Co., Ltd., which was in the initial stage of development, with sales of 2,508 units in January, an increase of 182.43% year-on-year), but also set a record for saic-Volkswagen's own single-month growth rate in three years (except for February and March, which were abnormally fluctuating due to the epidemic and other factors).
In addition, even compared with December, when sales sprinted at the end of last year, SAIC Volkswagen only fell by 4.38% month-on-month in January.
The strong sales performance made SAIC Volkswagen a subsidiary accounting for 28.67% of SAIC's total sales in January, which can be described as a leader within the group. With it, even if SAIC-GM performed "crotch pulling", SAIC achieved a 9.61% increase; without it, SAIC actually fell by 1.39% in January.
Now the picture of SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC Group sitting together should be, on the group structure "I call you brother", on sales performance "you call me Dad".
In contrast, SAIC-GM's year-on-year decline has become the most crotch-pulling presence in SAIC.
Don't look at the end of the year final sprint to a single month of 160,000 vehicles, the same period last January was also nearly 50,000 vehicles ahead of SAIC Volkswagen, but in the latest issue of the production and sales express, SAIC-GM's monthly sales were only 110,000 vehicles, once again lagging behind SAIC-GM-Wuling, a year-on-year decline of up to 15.43%, only better than "other" (merged with Shanghai Shenwo, SAIC Iveco Hongyan, Nanjing Iveco), negative growth for 9 consecutive months.
It is worth mentioning that in the comments of many securities companies on the production and sales express report of this issue, they have taken a swipe at SAIC-GM. In the face of the steady recovery of Japanese joint venture brands and the super level of SAIC Volkswagen's "leading the way", it is presumably difficult for SAIC-GM to throw the pot to the "lack of core" this time.
On the contrary, from the brand value itself, especially between the three sub-brands of Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac, it has gradually changed from a beautiful combination of high, medium and low fists to a chaotic position in the cloudy market environment.
2 The two major autonomy fell sharply from the previous month, and increased steadily year-on-year
In the article "SAIC Group: Sales Fell Three Times in a Row, Stock Prices Fell Five Times", the auto K line analyzed the sales performance of SAIC Motor in December 2021 and the end of the year, expressing a worry - seeing that some listed automobile companies have taken advantage of the "epidemic" and "lack of core" in previous years to "hide sales" at the end of the year in order to usher in the "opening red" in the following year, will SAIC Group even have a weak heart for this little trick?
It may be true now. The entire group fell 31.08% month-on-month in January, of which two major autonomous sectors: SAIC-GM-Wuling and SAIC Passenger Cars fell by 48.98% and 35.85% respectively, ranking the top two in the group.
You know, at the end of 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling was in a state of exceeding 200,000 in a single month, but now it is on an equal footing with SAIC-GM. For SAIC Passenger Vehicle, which is already in the "development period", not only the monthly year-on-year growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year is declining, but the growth momentum in January this year is only tied with the same period last year that was more affected by the epidemic, and then superimposed on the serious month-on-month decline, it is inevitable that people will sweat for it.
At present, sachinchinia group sales in January are mentioned on the Internet, "new energy vehicles exceeded 70,000 units, an increase of more than 25%", which seems to be a compliment, but don't forget the existence of Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, and as early as 2014, the "kryptonite feat" of spending 60 billion yuan on new energy, can the sales performance of new energy be really satisfactory at present?
No one wants to see China's largest automobile group with the largest production and sales scale and the highest revenue of the listed automobile companies, and always look at the face of the joint venture company in terms of sales volume and the flat performance in the capital market.
Recently, SAIC Motor has continued to announce the progress of share repurchases, and as of February 7, the total amount it has paid has exceeded 800 million yuan, which is intended for equity incentives.
The question is, will executives who receive large bonuses be addicted to the highest sales growth in three years, or will they really find solutions to a series of problems such as relying heavily on joint ventures and new energy business development?
As 2022 kicks off, let's keep an eye on how it will perform over the next 11 months. Of course, don't forget to look forward to the analysis of the K-line of the car after the release of SAIC's 2021 financial report at the end of March.