Can hydrogen fuel cell vehicles cross the watershed of development?

The 14-year interval between the two Beijing Olympics is 14 years of accelerated development of hydrogen-fueled vehicles.

"Plain electricity, mountain hydrogen" is the 2022 "Beijing Winter Olympics Low Carbon Management Report (pre-competition)" clearly put forward the principle, therefore, the Beijing Winter Olympics became the first Olympic event to truly achieve "carbon neutrality", in addition to the opening ceremony of the main torch with pollution-free, zero carbon emission hydrogen to create torch fuel first exception, the Winter Olympics also achieved the world's first large-scale hydrogen energy vehicle demonstration application.

The Winter Olympics will promote the use of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in all competition areas. According to the data released by the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, the Beijing Winter Olympics demonstrated the operation of more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles, equipped with more than 30 hydrogen refueling stations, including hydrogen fuel cell buses, hydrogen fuel cell cars, hydrogen fuel cell special vehicles, etc.

Previously, in December 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Industrial Green Development", which also proposed to accelerate hydrogen energy technology innovation and infrastructure construction, and promote the diversified use of hydrogen energy.

Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Joint Association, said, "The large-scale demonstration application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the Beijing Winter Olympics is a good test for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, which is conducive to improving product technology. ”

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are about to turn over the watershed of accelerated landing?

Low temperature + mountain: hydrogen energy becomes the protagonist of the Winter Olympics traffic

The Beijing News Shell financial reporter learned that the hydrogen fuel cell vehicles of Toyota Motor, BAIC Group, Yutong Bus, Foton Automobile and other car companies have been put into the Beijing Winter Olympics. Toyota China said it will provide a total of 2,205 vehicles during the Winter Olympics, including 140 Mirai and 105 Costa, both of which are hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

According to the information disclosed by Toyota China, this is the first time that Toyota has officially introduced the second-generation Mirai hydrogen fuel cell passenger car to the Chinese market, and has achieved large-scale practical application. The Costa Hydrogen Engine is a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle specially developed for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, which is developed by Toyota China R&D Center and produced by Sichuan FAW Toyota, which is also the first time that Toyota Motor has realized the localization of hydrogen fuel cell technology from research and development to production overseas.

The relevant person in charge of Yutong Bus said that Yutong Bus provided a total of 950 buses to participate in traffic protection work, including 185 hydrogen fuel cell buses. In addition, Geely Interstellar Bus provided 80 hydrogen fuel cell city buses; BAIC Group provided 381 hydrogen fuel and pure electric vehicles; and Foton Motor provided 515 hydrogen fuel buses.

Why did hydrogen fuel cell vehicles become the protagonists of the Winter Olympics? On the one hand, the Beijing Winter Olympics advocate the principle of "plain electricity, mountain hydrogen"; on the other hand, from the perspective of geographical characteristics, the High Mountain Road in Zhangjiakou and Yanqing Competition Areas of the Winter Olympics is slippery and the temperature is low and the slope is steep, which puts forward more stringent requirements for the reliability and power of electrified vehicles.

Tian Yongqiu, an analyst in the automotive industry, said, "From the perspective of raw materials and the overall industrial chain, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles can achieve close to zero emissions. "The prospective industry research institute found that hydrogen fuel cells have an assembled structure, easy to install and maintain, and the structure is relatively simple, the moving parts are less noisy and low, and the fuel cell conversion efficiency can reach 60%, which is high efficiency."

"Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have the advantages of long endurance and fast fuel filling of fuel vehicles, and the environmental protection characteristics of pure electric vehicles." The relevant person in charge of Yutong Bus said, "Yutong hydrogen fuel bus hydrogen refueling time is 8-10 minutes, the driving range is more than 500 kilometers, and it can achieve low temperature start of -30 °C." ”

In addition, from the perspective of objective factors, the application demonstration of hydrogen energy vehicles in Zhangjiakou has formed a certain scale. According to the official data, Zhangjiakou hydrogen energy vehicles have been running smoothly for more than three years, with a cumulative operation of more than 21 million kilometers and a passenger capacity of more than 65 million passengers.

Can hydrogen fuel vehicles take advantage of the Winter Olympics to set off an industrial climax?

As early as the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, hydrogen fuel cell buses have been put into demonstration operation, but the application demonstration scale is small, only 3. Due to the early stage of exploration, many factors restrict the large-scale promotion of hydrogen fuel vehicles. Two years later, at the Shanghai World Expo, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles put into demonstration operation increased to 196, and the industry believes that from the Shanghai World Expo, the mainland's hydrogen energy vehicle technology began to enter a new era of industrialization development.

The application scale of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the Beijing Winter Olympics exceeded 1,000, which also means that the domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is already in a new accelerated stage of development in the industry.

The industry believes that the large-scale application of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles at the Beijing Winter Olympics can be seen as a landmark event for the mainland to support the development of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry. The relevant person in charge of Yutong Bus said, "Through the Winter Olympics, it is conducive to improving the public's awareness of the feasibility and reliability of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle applications." ”

According to the analysis of Capital Securities, the Beijing Winter Olympics will fully demonstrate the application potential of hydrogen energy, rapidly enhance hydrogen energy cognition, and promote beneficial industrialization, and the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics may be expected to become a "watershed" for hydrogen energy to accelerate in China.

It is reported that the more than 1,000 hydrogen energy vehicles operated by the Winter Olympics demonstration will be converted into local buses, group cars, etc. after the End of the Winter Olympics, so as to use the influence of the Olympic demonstration and cooperate with the construction of fuel cell vehicle demonstration city clusters. Cui Dongshu said, "After the previous adjustment period, China's promotion and support for the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle industry is more calm and rational, the positive tendency is more obvious, and the sense of rhythm is stronger." ”

In fact, in recent years, with the continuous help of favorable policies and the promotion of the "double carbon" goal, the development speed of hydrogen fuel vehicles is accelerating. In September 2020, the National Development and Reform Commission and other five departments issued a notice on the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles, adjusting the purchase subsidy policy for fuel cell vehicles to the support policy for the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles.

In March 2021, hydrogen energy was officially included in the draft outline of the "14th Five-Year Plan"; in December 2021, the Ministry of Finance and other five departments issued the "Notice on Launching a New Batch of Fuel Cell Vehicle Demonstration Application Work", hebei and Henan two urban agglomerations were officially approved, coupled with the first batch of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shanghai and Guangdong urban agglomerations announced earlier, a total of 5 major urban agglomerations will officially begin to promote the demonstration application of fuel cell vehicles in the mainland in 2022.

At the same time, many domestic car companies are also seizing the opportunity to layout, including Yutong Automobile, Toyota Motor, SAIC Motor, Foton Motor, Great Wall Motor, Geely Commercial Vehicle, etc. have clearly planned to increase investment in promoting the research and development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and the commercialization of products.

For example, Great Wall Motor Salon Zhixing proposed the technical route of "pure electricity + hydrogen energy", Great Wall Motors released a hydrogen energy strategy; GAC Group's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Aion LX Fuel Cell has also been officially unveiled and put into demonstration operation; BAIC Group, FAW Group, GAC Group, Dongfeng Company and other Toyota Motor have established a fuel cell joint venture company to focus on the commercial development of hydrogen fuel cells in China; Changan CS75 hydrogen fuel version and Hongqi H5 hydrogen fuel cell version have also been publicly unveiled.

The industry believes that with the official rollout of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demonstration city cluster project in 2022 and the impact of the demonstration application of the Winter Olympics, 2022 may become the year when the curtain of hydrogen fuel cell industrialization is opened.

"Hydrogen" wind is coming, under the problem of mass production, commercialization will take time

Cui Dongshu believes that the large-scale demonstration operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the Winter Olympics can provide reference for the follow-up research and development and demonstration operation of the hydrogen fuel vehicle industry, and the subsequent development is still facing how to reduce costs and expand the scope of use.

Despite the obvious advantages of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, there are only a few hydrogen fuel cell vehicles that have truly achieved mass production and sale worldwide, including Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity and Hyundai Nexo. From the perspective of the domestic automobile market, mass-produced hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are mainly commercial vehicles, and in the field of passenger cars, GAC Group's first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Aion LX Fuel Cell became the first hydrogen fuel cell SUV in China to board the announcement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in addition to SAIC Group, Hongqi and other hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.

According to data from the China Automobile Association, the sales volume of fuel cell vehicles in mainland China in 2021 will be 1556 units, mainly commercial vehicles. Professor Zhang Tong, director of the Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Research Institute of Tongji University, said, "China's fuel cell vehicles have begun to be applied in the field of commercial vehicles, and the demonstration city cluster also emphasizes the large-scale demonstration of commercial vehicles; but the technical threshold for passenger cars is relatively high, and it will take a while to form a scale." ”

Zhang Tong said frankly, "From a technical point of view, the technical threshold of commercial vehicles is relatively low, and it is easier to achieve application on commercial vehicles when the technology of the entire fuel cell industry chain is not mature." ”

From the perspective of the current development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, the current types of hydrogen energy are divided into gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen. Gray hydrogen is the production of hydrogen through the combustion of fossil fuels, the most polluting; blue hydrogen is to increase carbon capture, carbon storage technology, the essence is still fossil fuel combustion to produce hydrogen, pollution is relatively small; green hydrogen is through photovoltaic, wind energy and other renewable energy methods to electrolyze water to hydrogen, the whole process of zero carbon.

In terms of categories, green hydrogen is considered to be the best fuel for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles to achieve zero emissions. According to data from the China Coal Processing and Utilization Association, the output of hydrogen energy in the mainland in 2021 has exceeded 30 million tons, but the green hydrogen production capacity is very low, with an annual production capacity of only 100,000-200,000 tons; from the perspective of purification, the main sources of hydrogen production are fossil fuels and coal, and other impurities such as sulfur need to be removed to meet the requirements of downstream fuel cell-level hydrogen, while the cost of electrolysis of water to hydrogen is high and the technology still needs to be broken.

Hydrogen storage and transportation links also have greater difficulty, because pipeline transportation is currently facing a low load rate and large initial investment problems are difficult to promote on a large scale, the current main way of transporting hydrogen is gaseous long-tube trailer; and hydrogen itself is more active, easy to escape and easy to cause metal to produce hydrogen embrittlement characteristics, making hydrogen transportation costs extremely high.

Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, believes that there are many practical problems in hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transportation, and hydrogenation that need to be solved in order to achieve industrialization. In addition, Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, believes that there are still bottlenecks in the high cost of fuel cell engine research and development that need to be broken; in Zhang Tong's view, the real technical difficulty is the lack of productized technology, the industrial chain and technology need to be further matured and developed, and the price needs to be further reduced.

Zhang Yinguang, deputy secretary of the party committee and general manager of the State Power Investment Hydrogen Energy Company, said in an interview with the Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter, "The reduction of cost requires the maturity of technology and a certain scale, and the current hydrogen fuel cell has reached the key point of technological breakthrough, and the next breakthrough point is to achieve the maturity of technology and promote the large-scale development of demonstration points." ”

In 2025, the market size may reach 80 billion yuan, and the marketization inflection point is coming?

Zhang Tong said that the commercialization process of commercial vehicles in hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is relatively fast, and it is expected to reach a considerable scale within two or three years, while the commercialization process in the passenger car field still needs a relatively long time, at least five years to form a certain scale, and can really be listed in small batches.

In fact, the mainland hydrogen fuel cell vehicle policy wind continues to increase, the reporter combed and found that at present, there are 30 provinces and more than 150 cities in the country mentioned hydrogen energy development in their "14th Five-Year Plan", and more than 50 cities have introduced special plans for the development of local hydrogen energy industry. According to the planning goals of various provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, by 2025, more than 1,000 hydrogen refueling stations will be built nationwide, and more than 54,000 hydrogen fuel vehicles will be promoted. The "China Hydrogen Energy Industry Development Report 2020" estimates that the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China will increase from 7352 in 2020 to 100,000 in 2025, and the market size of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to reach 80 billion yuan by 2025.

At the same time, the layout of car companies is also accelerating, for example, Great Wall Motor's hydrogen energy strategy mentions that it plans to launch the world's first C-class hydrogen fuel cell SUV in 2021, landing the world's first 100 49-ton hydrogen energy heavy trucks; in 2022, the parallel hydrogen fuel cell multiple cleaning application project groups; 2025 to achieve the top three global hydrogen energy market share; SAIC Motor plans to launch at least 10 fuel cell vehicle products by 2025, and form a production and sales scale of 10,000 fuel cell vehicles, with a market share of more than 10%. In terms of international car companies, BMW Group will produce BMW iX5 Hydrogen hydrogen fuel cell vehicles on a small scale this year, or officially mass production in 2025.

Lu Bingbing, general manager of Jie Hydrogen Technology under SAIC, once said that it is expected that hydrogen fuel cells will usher in the first inflection point in 2025, and the number of hydrogen fuel cells may reach 100,000; in 2030, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will increase to 1 million; at the same time, in the process of continuous development, the cost of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be further reduced.

Entering the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" development period, decarbonization has become the key word for the development of the automobile industry, as a technical path that is considered to be able to effectively achieve zero emissions, the recovery of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles or means to further enrich the technical path of the development of the mainland new energy automobile industry; Tian Yongqiu believes that the current domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are still in the initial stage, have not yet formed a scale, from demonstration and trial operation to mass production to large-scale commercialization, basically until after 2030 to truly see the effect of commercialization Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and electric drive vehicles are not contradictory, but a mutually reinforcing existence, and the ultimate purpose is to promote true zero carbon emissions.

Beijing News shell financial reporter Wang Linlin Editor Xu Chao Proofreading Jia Ning