The new energy vehicle market drives the first year: four major policy wind directions affect the industrial chain

Economic Observer reporter Pu Zhenyu entered 2022, although the new energy automobile industry has shifted from policy-driven to market-driven, it does not mean that policy factors are no longer important, but the way policies promote industrial development has changed - the color of subsidies and incentives has been diluted, the intensity of supervision and guidance has been strengthened, and the status and role of policies are still key.

On February 11, the stock prices of A-share companies in the power battery recycling industry chain rose. On the news side, on February 10, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Plan on Accelerating the Comprehensive Utilization of Industrial Resources" (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"), proposing to improve the recycling system of waste power batteries and promote the safe ladder application of waste power batteries in the fields of power backup, charging and replacement.

Strengthening battery recycling is only one of the wind directions of the automotive industry policy. In the case of the continuous outbreak of new energy vehicle sales, how to improve the charging infrastructure to alleviate the problem of charging difficulties is another key consideration direction for the regulatory authorities to formulate policies in 2022.

At the same time, relevant consulting agencies predict that autonomous driving will officially enter the first year of commercialization. At the policy level, regulatory provisions are being formulated around the classification of levels and responsibilities of autonomous vehicles, clearing legal obstacles for the commercialization of autonomous driving technology.

In addition, the auto industry policy that matches the "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" is also expected to be concentrated in 2022. Once the general "double carbon" program and path of the domestic automotive industry are introduced, it will force domestic car companies to start low-carbon transformation and end the wait-and-see state of domestic car companies for the double carbon target.

Battery recycling accelerates survival of the fittest

The "Plan" released by the eight departments said that it is necessary to improve the management system, strengthen the traceability management of the whole life cycle of new energy vehicle power batteries, promote the upstream and downstream cooperation of the industrial chain to build recycling channels, and build a cross-regional recycling system.

Caixin Securities released a research report saying that the power battery recycling market is about to be released. The judgment criteria are: power battery recycling regulatory policies have been introduced, the requirements for recycling enterprises are being supplemented and improved, and the responsibilities of enterprises in all links of the industrial chain are gradually clarified. At the same time, the formulation of power battery recycling standards is accelerating, and the battery recycling standards in related subdivisions will be gradually expanded in the future.

According to data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, the cumulative number of decommissioned power batteries in China will exceed 200,000 tons in 2020, and the market size will reach 10 billion yuan; by 2025, the market size of waste power batteries in the mainland may exceed 40 billion yuan; by 2030, the recycling of ternary lithium and lithium iron phosphate batteries will create a market of 100 billion.

In fact, the mainland power battery recycling industry has been developing for many years, but there are still many problems. The huge market prospect has attracted many small enterprises with backward technology and poor processing capacity to enter the game, and many scrapped power batteries have flowed into the "black workshops" of these small enterprises, causing harm to the environment and causing the entire battery recycling industry to operate less efficiently.

In this context, the regulatory authorities began to introduce various new policies after 2020 to promote the standardized development of the industry, among which encouraging the regular enterprises with strength and technology to lay out the recycling of power batteries has become the consistent direction of the policy.

In January 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued new regulations for battery recycling enterprises to add "lithium recovery rate is not less than 85%, rare earth and other major valuable metals comprehensive recovery rate is not less than 97%" and other new requirements, and small workshops are not easy to achieve these requirements, in order to promote the survival of the fittest. In August 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued the "Administrative Measures for the Echelon Utilization of New Energy Vehicle Power Batteries", which for the first time proposed to "encourage basic power battery manufacturers to participate in the recycling and echelon utilization of waste power batteries".

The latest release of the "Plan" of the eight departments also continues this policy direction, continues to strengthen the support for powerful power battery recycling enterprises, "cultivate a number of echelon and recycling backbone enterprises, and increase the research and development and promotion of power battery nondestructive testing, automated disassembly, efficient extraction of valuable metals and other technologies."

Focus on the cell and high-speed scene charging is difficult

According to the data, at the end of 2020, the "vehicle-to-pile ratio" of domestic new energy vehicles was 2.9:1 (4.92 million vehicles and 1.681 million charging piles); at the end of 2021, the number of domestic new energy vehicles was 7.84 million, the number of charging infrastructure was 2.617 million units, and the "vehicle-to-pile ratio" became 3:1. That is to say, with the outbreak of new energy vehicle consumption, the contradiction between more cars and fewer piles has further intensified.

In 2022, the solution to the problem of charging difficulties at the policy level will be more targeted at the two major scenarios of residential areas and highways. At the 2022 annual work conference of the inter-ministerial joint conference on energy conservation and new energy automobile industry development, Xiao Yaqing said that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of charging and replacing infrastructure and solve the problem of "charging difficulties" in old residential areas and highways.

It is no accident that the two major charging scenes of old residential areas and highways have attracted the attention of relevant departments. Among them, some communities, especially old residential areas, are limited by space and circuit conditions, and it is actually difficult to install charging piles; at the same time, due to the free policy of highways, the number of new energy vehicles on the highway during holidays will suddenly explode, so the problem of charging difficulties is also particularly prominent.

Unlike the circulation of waste power batteries nationwide, charging piles cannot be moved at will and belong to regional infrastructure. Therefore, for the construction of charging piles, although there are many support and guidance at the national level, the specific supporting policies issued by local governments are the key forces, and this trend has undoubtedly continued until 2022.

On February 10, 2022, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission issued the Opinions on The Installation of Electric Vehicle Charging Piles in Residential Areas and the Maintenance of Order in the Later Stage. For the installation of electric vehicle charging piles in residential areas and the maintenance of order in the later stage, specific requirements for steadily promoting installation, actively supporting cooperation, strengthening supervision and management, and doing a good job in organizational protection are put forward.

Not only Beijing, but also the governments of Kunming, Fujian and other places in Yunnan have recently introduced pragmatic policies to promote the construction of charging piles in the community, including supporting cooperation models such as multi-vehicle and one pile in residential areas and a time-sharing mechanism for charging parking spaces. For the construction of highway charging piles, the Henan Provincial Department of Transportation also issued a plan at the end of 2021, planning to achieve full coverage of charging piles in the province's highway operation service area by the end of June 2022.

The division of responsibilities for autonomous driving will be based on evidence

The autonomous driving function is known as the "crown jewel" of smart cars. However, if the road to the commercialization of autonomous driving is to be officially opened in 2022, it is not only necessary to achieve breakthroughs at the technical level, but also to remove many obstacles at the legal level.

In China, different car companies have their own standards in the definition of automatic driving, which has led to the emergence of L2+ level, L2.5 level, advanced assisted driving, automatic assisted driving and other names, this kind of marketing chaos is easy to mislead ordinary consumers, and then disputes and disputes.

On March 1, 2022, the national standard "Automobile Driving Automation Classification" formulated by the State Administration for Market Regulation will be officially implemented, which is one of the basic standards of China's intelligent networked vehicle standard system, which is expected to end the marketing chaos in the field of intelligent driving, and will also provide support for the introduction of subsequent laws and regulations and mandatory standards related to autonomous driving in the mainland.

In addition to the non-uniformity of standards, the collection of evidence and the determination of responsibility after the accident of intelligent driving cars is also a major problem. A series of intelligent driving functions in intelligent driving cars, its operation process is very much like a data black box, once an accident occurs, only through traditional equipment such as driving recorders, it is impossible to intuitively determine the cause of the accident and the attribution of responsibility.

In the case of vague policy requirements before, automobile manufacturers are reluctant to disclose the original data, even if the original data is disclosed, it is difficult for the third-party detection agency to effectively analyze and restore the original data because it does not understand the underlying logic of the vehicle intelligent driving algorithm.

In 2022, strong regulation of data on smart driving cars will be one of the jobs of regulators. According to the requirements of the National Standard No. 2 of the "Technical Conditions for the Safety of Motor Vehicle Operation", from January 1, 2022, newly produced passenger cars in mainland China need to be compulsorily equipped with EDR (Vehicle Event Data Recording System) or equipped with DVR (Vehicle Video Driving Recording System) that meets the regulations.

EDR is the car "black box", the data information recorded by it can be used for automobile accident analysis, determine the cause of the accident, avoid car companies and car owners to blame each other on the cause of the accident, and can also provide an important basis for insurance claims.

A roadmap for the dual carbon target is looming

Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have become hot words in the automotive industry in the past two years. At present, more than a dozen foreign car companies such as Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, General Motors, and Toyota have proposed a "double carbon" timetable, as well as an operation plan and a model project. Compared with foreign car companies, the progress of domestic car companies is slower, after only a few car companies such as Great Wall Motors and SAIC Motor have proposed double-carbon related targets, and more car companies are still waiting.

For the wait-and-see mentality of domestic car companies, the industry believes that this is related to the fact that the overall "double carbon" program and path of the domestic automotive industry have not yet been introduced. Previously, You Zheng, deputy general manager of Dongfeng Motor Group, had called for the introduction of a low-carbon development path map for the automotive industry under the goal of "double carbon", so that the automotive industry chain has a technical route and action direction to follow together.

For the industrial roadmap under the double carbon target, Xiao Yaqing said that in 2022, it is necessary to implement the carbon peak carbon neutrality target and compile a roadmap for the green development of the automobile industry.

It is understood that the roadmap for the green development of the automobile industry is mainly organized and compiled according to the requirements of the "1 + N" policy system of the double carbon target, aiming to provide guidance for industry enterprises. It is reported that progress has been made in the development of the road map, although it is not known at what stage it will be carried out at this time.

It is worth noting that the automotive industry chain is relatively long, and carbon reduction not only requires adjusting the product structure, but also needs to start from the whole process of production and use. As the "heart" of electric vehicles, carbon reduction in the field of power batteries is extremely critical to achieving the double carbon goal of the automotive industry.

It is only a matter of time before the mainland introduces carbon emissions regulatory policies around power batteries. In August 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology made it clear in its letter on the reply to Proposal No. 1259 of the Fourth Meeting of the 13th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to explore the establishment of a carbon emission standard system for the whole life cycle of vehicles, including key parts.