"Is this year a good time to buy new energy vehicles?" Every year, similar problems are repeated. In other words, with the growth rate of new energy development in the past two years, the repetition rate of similar problems is also rising...
So, is this year a good time to buy new energy vehicles?
According to the relevant statistics of the Association, in December 2021, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505,000 units, an increase of 138.9% year-on-year and 17.8% month-on-month. From January to December, the wholesale number of new energy passenger vehicles was 3.312 million units, an increase of 181.0% year-on-year. In December of the same year, retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 475,000 units, up 128.8% year-on-year and 25.4% month-on-month. From January to December, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 2.989 million units, an increase of 169.1% year-on-year.
At the same time, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger car manufacturers in December was 21.3%, and the penetration rate of January-December was 15.7%; the domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached a higher rate of 22.6% in December, and the penetration rate of 14.8% in January-December. If compared with the number of fuel models, the number of new energy vehicles at this stage is still a dime. Then the above penetration rate gradually explains the situation - OEMs and consumers are gradually preferring new energy models. Taking Toyota as an example, it believes that the development of automobiles should be market-oriented, and similar views actually exist all over the world. So from today's growth rate and penetration rate, does it mean that "the market has chosen new energy"?
It should be known that the current growth rate of new energy is no better than the original "fraudulent replenishment army". Today's new energy is a growth rate in the context of subsidy decline. If the wholesale volume of OEMs increases because of double integration, then the increase in retail penetration can only be due to the increase in the number of consumers buying. Moreover, this is still in the epidemic situation, chip shortage, supply chain tight situation, many new force car companies are in the "order is full but no car to deliver" situation. That is to say, once the market environment withdraws from many accidents, the new energy wave may be faster, bigger and more violent than we now know!
Never lose sight of the impact the environment has on a person. When everyone around you buys a new energy vehicle, do you have the idea of "do I want to try it"?
However, I would like to say that now is not a good time to start a new energy model. There are three reasons: First, the country is currently under the guidance of the policy of grasping hydrogen energy and electric energy. Therefore, this year and in the next few years, a collision between hydrogen energy and pure electric energy is bound to occur, and the final result is whether one side wins or coexists is unknown. However, it can be predicted that in this collision, there will inevitably be more competitive and attractive products. Second, the epidemic, chip shortage, and tight supply chain will most likely continue in 2022. And this has become a dilemma that all new energy vehicle companies must face together. The ensuing problem is the increase in product costs caused by tight supply side. Combined with the news that has been achieved so far, the price of electric vehicle batteries may rise in 2022 after a sharp decline in 10 years because the supply of lithium and other raw materials cannot meet the expanding demand.
While mining companies scramble to ramp up production at existing facilities and develop new sources of supply, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate hit a record at the end of 2021. China, the world's largest producer of batteries, is priced at 261,500 yuan ($41,060) per ton, more than five times higher than in January. For new energy models that are already in short supply, the means of the main engine factory must be - price increase. In fact, today's mainstream new energy models have basically increased their prices. Of course, most of the increase is less than ten thousand yuan, and some consumers may not care, but if you are a person who pursues cost performance, it is certainly not cost-effective to start now.
Third, it is now coinciding with the expansion period of new energy, and with the entry of joint venture brands and luxury brands, the competitive relationship will be further intensified. At that time, whether it is to deal with competitors or improve their own competitiveness, there is bound to be a situation of "letting profit impulses" to boost product sales. Therefore, at least in the first half of this year, starting a new energy model is not a cost-effective choice.
I once heard a stock market related saying that when everyone is buying stocks, it's time to sell stocks. In fact, no matter what you buy, it is the same reason, you should choose to be calm when it is hot, and it is not necessarily a good thing to reduce speed. Especially in the current situation is not stable, wait for the upstream and downstream to keep up with the rhythm, perhaps the product has a better display. And for consumers, if everyone does not run, in order to attract consumers, the main engine factory will have more preferential policies, then everyone can naturally get a better price, why not enjoy it?
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