All along, Xiaopeng Automobile (09868.HK/XPEV.US) has been the main supplier of power batteries in the Ningde era, but it has been repeatedly introduced into other battery suppliers.
On January 29, it was reported that Xiaopeng Motors had determined to use the 4c power battery of Sunwoda (300207.SZ) in the medium and large SUV G9, and Sunwoda would be a certain version of the G9 A supply, with a supply share of more than 50%. In response, Xiaopeng Automobile responded: "This information is not official information, the preparation of the vehicle and the selection of suppliers are an important part of the business plan, please refer to the information filed by the Ministry of Vehicle Industry and Information Technology." ”
On January 30, it was also reported that Xiaopeng Automobile said in an institutional survey that CATL (300750. SZ) price increase is too large, in order to cope with the pressure brought by rising costs, the future will gradually replace the Ningde era power battery with the battery of AVIC lithium battery, Ewell Lithium Energy (300014. SZ)'s iron lithium battery will also continue to be used, mainly matching low-end models.
In response to the above rumors, Xiaopeng Automobile said, "The news of transferring suppliers or having a supplier to be our core battery supplier is a huge difference from the facts." Xiaopeng Automobile will, as always, choose a strong supplier such as CATL to become our core partner. ”
In fact, as early as December 2021, there were market rumors that Xiaopeng Motors intended to introduce China New Guinea (AVIC Lithium Battery). At that time, Xiaopeng Automobile did not deny it, but said: "The parts supply chain of vehicle production needs to be continuously improved in order to better guarantee supply and production and predict the delivery cycle more accurately." ”
Whether true or false, these rumors reflect the trend of Xiaopeng Automobile's "de-Ningde era", which is also the choice of many car companies.
The "lithium battery brother" Ningde era earned 14 billion yuan a year
On the evening of January 27, CATL released the 2021 performance pre-increase announcement, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 14 billion yuan - 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% - 195.52% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses will be 12 billion yuan - 14 billion yuan, an increase of 181.38% - 228.28% year-on-year, and the performance will exceed expectations.
The net profit of CATL in the first three quarters of 2021 was 7.751 billion yuan, which can be calculated that the net profit in the fourth quarter is expected to reach 6.249 billion yuan to 8.749 billion yuan, and the net profit in a single quarter will exceed 6 billion yuan.
A net profit of 14 billion yuan a year, behind the super earning power of the "lithium battery brother" Ningde era, is the increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and energy storage in 2021, driving the growth of battery sales; market development progress, the release of new production capacity, production and sales increased accordingly; strengthen cost control, and reduce the proportion of expenses to revenue.
According to the China Automobile Association, in 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland were 3.545 million units and 3.521 million units, respectively, an increase of 159.5% and 157.5% year-on-year, respectively.
In December 2021, the penetration rate of the domestic new energy vehicle market has reached 19.1%. From January to December 2021, the average penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 14.8%, more than 3 times that of 2019, and it is expected to achieve the target of 20% penetration rate ahead of schedule in 2022.
Sales of new energy vehicles soared, driving the growth of power battery installed capacity.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, from January to December 2021, the top 10 domestic power battery companies in terms of vehicle loading volume are: Ningde Times, BYD (002594. SZ), Zhongxin Airlines (AVIC Lithium Battery), Guoxuan Hi-Tech (002074. SZ), LG New Energy, Hive Energy, Tafil New Energy, Ewell Lithium Energy, Fu Energy Technology, Sunwoda.
The loading volume of the top three, top five and top ten power battery companies accounted for 74.2%, 83.4% and 92.3% of the total installed vehicle volume, respectively. Among them, the loading volume of catheter era was 80.51GWh, accounting for 52.1%.
In terms of global markets, SNE Research data shows 2017-2020. The use of power batteries in the CATL era ranked first in the world for four consecutive years, and the global market share exceeded 32% in 2021. LG and Panasonic, which ranked second and third, had market share of 21% and 13% respectively.
Ningde has locked in a number of long orders, including winning Geely's Zhejiang Vision 57GWh large order, the US Fisker company's 3-year total 15GWh order, the US commercial electric vehicle ELMS order, Jinkang New Energy 5-year order, Tesla (TSLA.US) 4-year order, and Great Wall Motor (601633. SH) signed a 10-year long-term strategic cooperation agreement, received a seven-year order for Mercedes-Benz commercial vehicles, and increased supply of BMW, Volkswagen, Hyundai, Rolls-Royce, etc.
New car-making forces such as Weilai Automobile (NIO.US), Xiaopeng Automobile, Ideal Automobile (02015.HK/LI.US), and WM have hot-selling models equipped with CATL batteries. BMW, Volkswagen, Tesla, Daimler, Jaguar Land Rover, Honda and other traditional car companies are also customers of the Ningde era.
Car companies "go to the Ningde era"
Although the Ningde era is desperately expanding production, it is obviously impossible to meet the needs of all car companies. In order to ensure supply chain security and industrial chain discourse, many car companies have sought out other battery suppliers, participated in battery manufacturers, and even simply incubated battery companies themselves.
According to a previous report by 36Kr, China Innovation Airlines has replaced the Ningde era as the first supplier of GAC New Energy, which has not used the batteries of the Ningde era since May 2020.
In January 2021, NIO launched a 150-degree semi-solid-state battery pack, and the supplier is Weilan New Energy. This is the first time that WEILAI has introduced a second battery supplier since its cooperation with CATL. In the ranking of installed capacity in the Ningde era, Weilai is second only to Tesla and is the second largest passenger car customer.
According to industrial and commercial information, Weilai executive Zeng Shuxiang is a director of Weilan New Energy. In November 2021, Weilan New Energy received Series C financing from Xiaomi Group, Huawei, IDG Capital, NIO Capital and other institutions, with an amount of about 500 million yuan.
Geely has reached cooperation with battery companies such as Fu Neng Technology, Sunwoda, Hengyuan New Energy, AVIC Lithium Battery, Hefei Guoxuan, Tafil, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Lishen Battery, Hive Energy, etc., and also introduced LG New Energy last year; BMW introduced Yiwei Lithium Energy; Mercedes-Benz invested in Fu Neng Technology; Great Wall Motor hatched Honeycomb Energy; BYD's foreign supply circle of friends continues to expand; Tesla's 4680 battery car will be delivered this quarter; GAC Group's Juwan Technology Research Focuses on Graphene Batteries...
Battery suppliers are catching up.
On January 27, LG New Energy was listed on the Korea Stock Exchange, and after the opening of the market, the stock price climbed 99% and closed up 68%. Before the listing, LG New Energy CEO Quan Yingshou once said: "We expect that our global market share will surpass that of CATL and become the world's first."
The installed capacity of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and AVIC Lithium Battery increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and the latter is preparing to go public in Hong Kong. Hive New Energy is also sprinting to the science and technology innovation board.
According to the incomplete statistics of the Red Star Capital Bureau, only a few head battery companies announced new production capacity in the next 5 years, which has reached 2000GWh.
Liu Hao, an analyst in the automotive industry, told Red Star Capital Bureau that as the leader of global power batteries, CATL occupies more than 50% of the market share and has a great right to speak. In order to obtain the battery of the Ningde era, some manufacturers not only have a passive scheduling order, but even need to pay a huge advance payment in advance. "Plan B is the inevitable choice."
Surrounded by wolves, the Ningde era is stepping up the construction of a moat.
According to incomplete statistics, since January 2021, Ningde Times has invested as much as 39 abroad, mainly concentrated in the upstream and downstream industries of lithium batteries, including lithium ore, lithium battery cathode materials, electrolytes, automotive chips, new energy vehicles, etc.
The Ningde era, which is not bad money, also released a sodium-ion battery last year, and recently announced that it has cut into the field of power exchange. As CATL said at the press conference of the power exchange service brand EVOGO, "the whole life cycle value chain of R&D, manufacturing, use and recycling has been completed."
Red Star News reporter Wu Danruo
Edited by Tao Yueyang
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