Recently, CATL New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as CATL) disclosed a performance forecast, and it is expected that the net profit in 2021 will be 14 billion yuan - 16.5 billion yuan, an increase of 150.75% - 195.52% year-on-year. According to the financial report, the net profit of CATL in the first three quarters of 2021 was 7.751 billion yuan, an increase of 130.90% year-on-year. This is the third consecutive year that the net profit of CATL has hit a record high.
Zheshang Securities said that the performance in 2021 slightly exceeded expectations, of which the fourth quarter is expected to hit a new quarterly profit since the listing. According to the median performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the mother in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 550 million yuan, an increase of 327% year-on-year and a 9% increase sequentially.
As of February 7, the stock price of CATL was 579 yuan per share, with a total market value of 1.35 trillion yuan.
For the reasons for the growth of performance, the official of THE NINGDE era said: First, the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle and energy storage market will increase in 2021, driving the growth of battery sales. Second, the company's market development has made progress, new production capacity has been released, and production and sales have increased accordingly. Third, the company strengthened expense control, and the proportion of expenses to revenue decreased.
Everbright Securities said that the proportion of overseas income in the operating income of catalonia times increased from 3.5% in 2018 to 21% in January-September 2021 to 14.2 billion yuan, and the trend of increasing the proportion of lithium iron phosphate is also an opportunity for Ningde to enter overseas, including the industrial chain.
Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that there are three major reasons why the profit of CATL exceeded expectations in the fourth quarter of last year: First, the supply of high-quality batteries is in short supply, and the price of battery products has risen. Second, the company's forward-looking reserves of a large number of raw materials that are in short supply in the industry in advance to avoid the sharp price increase of raw materials such as lithium carbonate since Q4 2021 and affecting the profit margin level. Third, the energy storage business has increased the profitability of raw material-related businesses such as recycling. The company's control over the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the understanding of the product price cycle, and the boldness and execution of the procurement end are still one level higher than the competitors.
In 2021, under the influence of the global epidemic, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the mainland will still show explosive growth. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2021, the mainland will sell 3.521 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 1.6 times year-on-year, ranking first in the world for seven consecutive years, and the market share will reach 13.4%, 8 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.
Power battery sector, China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released data show that in 2021, the mainland power battery loading volume accumulated 154.5GWh, a cumulative increase of 142.8% year-on-year, of which the annual installed capacity of the Ningde era exceeded 80GWh, ranking first in the country with a market share of 52.1%.
In the past three years, the performance of the Ningde era has been in a growth trend. From 2018 to 2020, its operating income was 29.61 billion yuan, 45.79 billion yuan and 50.32 billion yuan, respectively, and the corresponding attributable net profit was 3.387 billion yuan, 4.56 billion yuan and 5.583 billion yuan, respectively.
Previously, CATL signed a 4-year order with Tesla, signed a 10-year long-term strategic cooperation agreement with Great Wall Motors, obtained a 7-year order for Mercedes-Benz commercial vehicles, and supplied Volkswagen, Hyundai, Rolls-Royce, etc. Including Weilai, Xiaopeng, Ideal, Weima and other core car-making new forces hot models have been equipped with Ningde era batteries. However, if the number of partners in the Ningde era has decreased, or the volume of business cooperated with the partners has decreased, the future Ningde era will continue to maintain "industry first" or there is uncertainty.
It is worth noting that in December 2021, there was news that Xiaopeng Automobile decided to cut the supply share of the Ningde era and introduce a new battery supplier, AVIC Lithium Battery. Xiaopeng official response: "The supply chain of parts and components produced by vehicles needs to be continuously improved in order to better guarantee supply and production and predict the delivery cycle more accurately." It is also reported that before Xiaopeng, AVIC lithium batteries have replaced the Ningde era as the first supplier of GAC new energy vehicles, and they have not used the batteries of the Ningde era since May 2020.
WEIO is also looking for battery suppliers other than the Ningde era. According to media reports, the semi-solid-state battery supplier announced by Weilai last year is Weilan New Energy, which is the first time that Weilai has announced cooperation with battery suppliers other than Ningde. Weilai is currently the second largest customer in the Ningde era in terms of battery installed capacity, second only to Tesla.
At the end of January this year, LG New Energy was listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. Before the listing, LG New Energy CEO Quan Yingshou once said bluntly: "We expect that our global market share will surpass that of catheter and become the world's first." LG New Energy's stock price climbed 99% after the opening of the listing.
Power battery manufacturers such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech and AVIC Lithium Battery have shown a catch-up trend for the Ningde era in terms of their installed capacity growth rate. The data shows that from January to November this year, the cumulative installed capacity of Guoxuan Hi-Tech's global power battery reached 5.3GWh, with a market share of 2.1%, an increase of 167.4% year-on-year; from January to November this year, the cumulative installed capacity of AVIC lithium battery global power batteries reached 6.8GWh, with a market share of 2.7%, an increase of 155.2% year-on-year.
At the same time, from the battery start of BYD's power battery business, to the Great Wall Motor's cultivation of hive energy and other vehicle manufacturers, have also begun to expand their own power battery manufacturers or focus on the layout of their own power battery business. Among them, BYD's market share in China in 2021 has reached 16.2%, but BYD blade batteries have not yet been supplied to other vehicle manufacturers.
Zhang Xiang, an analyst in the automotive industry, said that the limited production capacity of the Ningde era is impossible to meet the supply needs of so many car companies, so car companies have to find other suppliers. Moreover, more than 50% of the market share makes the Ningde era have too much power, which is not what car companies are happy to see, so that car companies are passive in terms of production order and price.
In fact, many new industries in the early stage of entering the market, because of limited resources, no large-scale production, in the stage of short supply, often appear one or several "dominant" situation, and profits are often high. However, with the gradual opening of the market and more and more enterprises joining, the resources will be more abundant and the technology will be more mature. Coupled with the fact that the overall industrial chain has begun to operate on a large scale, the cost will naturally decline, and the manufacturers of new energy vehicle power batteries are also facing the same problem. When the market forms a competitive relationship, then the gap between such head enterprises in the Ningde era will be narrowed, if you want to continue to maintain the position of "industry first", it is inevitable to make strategic expansion and adjustment, and bringing more benefits to partners and users is the key to revenue, so that the situation will inevitably bring about the contraction of profits.