Author | Zhang Yantao
It takes about 6 minutes to read
Inertia accelerates and retreats fuel.
New energy vehicles have taken off, and it is only a matter of time before the traditional production and marketing pattern is reversed. Li Bin's annual "doubts" are actually not necessary, stock trading or fund purchases have become the source of many people's "old and new".
In 2021, when new energy vehicles broke out, under the feast of production and financing, BYD dominated the A-share automobile circle, and the Ningde era was named "Ning Wang", new energy vehicles were sold, and power batteries were frantically expanded. But the financing demands from intelligence are catching up with the momentum of overtaking.
In 2022, is the new energy vehicle still worth investing in? Is intelligent investment really more expensive than electrification investment?
Power battery "infighting" intensified
Industry players fight bayonets
Among the A-share listed companies with a market value of more than one trillion yuan, banks and liquor occupy three seats, and the Ningde era, which does power batteries, is alone. This shows the gold content of "Ning Wang" and the industry behind it.
With the Matthew effect, the Ningde era has achieved "hegemony" in the field of power batteries.
According to statistics, in 2021, the installed capacity of the Ningde era will account for 52% of the industry, BYD will account for 16%, AVIC lithium battery will account for 6%, Guoxuan Hi-Tech will account for 5%, LG will account for 4%, Hive Energy will account for 2%, and other 52 battery companies will account for a total of 15%.
Although the Ningde era is still "one to fight ten", the vane of the industry seems to be undergoing new changes - lithium iron phosphate "restoration", latecomers "sharpening the knife".
According to the data, the cumulative output of ternary batteries in 2021 was 93.9GWh, accounting for 42.7% of the total output, a cumulative increase of 93.6% year-on-year; the cumulative output of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 125.4GWh, accounting for 57.1% of the total output, an increase of 262.9% year-on-year. Compared with the two, the output of ternary lithium batteries is basically stable, while the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries is growing significantly, and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries in December has almost doubled that of ternary lithium batteries.
In terms of installed capacity, the installed capacity of ternary batteries accumulated 74.3GWh, accounting for 48.1% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 91.3% year-on-year; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries accumulated 79.8GWh, accounting for 51.7% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 227.4% year-on-year.
From the perspective of production capacity reserves, lithium iron phosphate has obviously become the focus of the current layout of car companies.
Industry professionals said that since 2021, lithium iron phosphate materials have increased significantly, but even so, the current lithium iron phosphate battery compared with ternary, the cost of electricity has at least 15% to 20% advantage. In the increasingly important development of the industry, the parallel development of the two technical paths has weakened the possibility of a monopoly in the Ningde era to a certain extent.
BYD's market share, which ranks second in the installed capacity of power batteries, has increased in 2021, and its achievements are inseparable from the hot sales of BYD's new energy vehicles.
Statistics show that in 2021, BYD achieved 730,000 passenger car sales and 593,000 new energy passenger car sales in 2021, accounting for 81.2%. As we all know, BYD's current batteries are basically used for self-digestion. But according to a series of messages that have not been confirmed so far. Toyota, Tesla, FAW, Ford and even Apple have the potential to become customers of BYD's blade batteries.
In addition to the deepening of BYD's commercial openness, the competition for the post-trial echelon of the Ningde era is also becoming increasingly fierce. According to public information, recently, LG New Energy, China Innovation Aviation, Honeycomb Energy and other power battery companies have accelerated the listing process.
Although the power battery has a strong demand in the future, with the rise in cost, the fierceness of the "blood rush" between enterprises will undoubtedly be further aggravated.
Intelligent construction is just needed
Intelligence gradually landed, and the vision went to reality
Compared with the situation that the competition for power batteries has become white-hot, the intelligent investment in the automotive industry to reshape the "three modernizations" seems to be relatively flat.
The concept of unmanned driving is the most widely known "test field" for automobile intelligence, but under the influence of objective realities such as policies and regulations, the intelligence represented by unmanned driving is somewhat "high and far-reaching". Whether it is Google or Baidu, road testing has continued for many years, but until the gradual popularization of L2 and L3 driving levels, the "intelligent" vision has gradually been pulled back to the ground and paved the road for commercialization.
Behind the rise of automobile electrification, the capital initiative of industrial players is indispensable. During this period, Whether it is the Ningde era, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, which focuses on batteries and related industrial chains, or BYD represented by traditional car enterprises and OEMs, has reaped industrial dividends.
The fragrant cake makes more players "wine-scented", but the investment related to electrification has been difficult to support the ambitions of latecomers. "Intelligence" has become a popular investment concept for taking over the baton for electrification. In this round of investment, Internet companies may enter the market strongly - capital flocks and the outlet comes from the wind.
In the field of automotive intelligence, intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit are two important categories. In these two tracks, there are not a few players who are deeply involved. Among them, there are BYD with the layout of the whole industry chain, as well as Desay SV from the precision cultivation of automobile audio and video to the intelligent cockpit, and Huawei, which clearly states that it does not build cars but has generously entered with ICT technology.
Since entering the listing journey, BYD has attracted the favor of various star capitals, including SDIC Innovation, Sequoia, CICC, Xiaomi, and Lenovo.
Jiwei network data show that the amount of semiconductor chips in traditional internal combustion engine vehicles is about 600 to 700 pieces / vehicle, while new energy vehicles up to 1600 pieces / vehicle, the development trend of vehicle electrification, intelligence, and networking is irreversible, and the chip supply chain may open a change, which is a market with great growth potential: According to Gartner's relevant data, the global automotive semiconductor market will grow from 38.7 billion US dollars to 82.6 billion US dollars, and the industry compound growth rate is 16.4%.
In the popular IGBT segment, BYD Semiconductor ranked second in the world among new energy passenger car motor driver manufacturers in 2019 and 2020 for two consecutive years, and ranked first among domestic manufacturers, with a market share of 19%, second only to Infineon. In addition, there are many independently developed technologies in many aspects of the process such as vehicle-grade IGBT chip design, wafer manufacturing, and wafer testing. On August 1, 2021, BYD Semiconductor issued a document saying that for the first time, BYD Han motor controller uses a high-performance silicon carbide power module independently developed and manufactured by BYD, which is the world's first and only silicon carbide (SiC) three-phase full-bridge module in China to achieve large-scale loading in motor drive controllers.
As a smart cockpit provider, Desay SV has set a new high for its share price since its listing at the end of 2021. Although The rise in Desay SV's stock price is inseparable from the favor of institutions, the "prospects" of the industry are still relatively solid from the fundamentals.
Between 2017 and 2020, the market size of smart cockpits is expanding, and the development growth rate is accelerating. According to forecasts, in 2025, the market size of smart cockpits will exceed 100 billion yuan, which is almost double that of 2020.
Both the industry dynamics and the encouragement of the capital market show that automotive intelligence is becoming a new focus of attention.
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