Introduction: Bidding farewell to the "three consecutive drops" in 2021, who is going to fall behind?
Not long ago, data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that in 2021, the production and sales of mainland automobiles reached 26.082 million units and 26.275 million units, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 3%, ending the downward trend for three consecutive years since 2018. At the same time, the market share of new energy vehicles reached 13.4%; the market share of Chinese brands exceeded 44%, which not only ranked above the red line, but even approached the record high.
At the same time, according to the December national passenger car market analysis report released by the Federation of Passenger Vehicles, although the domestic passenger car market in December has declined to a certain extent compared with 2020 and 2019, the growth rate of more than 15% compared with November is far more than the performance of the same period in recent years.
It is not difficult to see that whether it is the single month of December as the last sprint of the whole year, or the whole year of 2021 at the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan", the Chinese auto market has shown an overall strong trend. The sales data of the 19 major automobile companies registered in the automotive K-line statistics also show the same trend as a whole.
However, in 2021, which is also facing uncertainties such as "lack of core and less electricity" and repeated epidemics, who finally laughed to the end? Who seems to be a little out of rhythm? What's more interesting is that the seemingly uncertain 2021 Chinese auto market was "predicted" by an institution as early as a year ago. How will the Chinese auto market perform in 2022? Let's go one by one.
1 Monthly performance was uneventful
As the final sprint of the year, and the november sales list of the second shuffle of the situation is different, in December sales list, the ranking of the major automobile companies is relatively stable, there are only 2 places rising / falling, but because this is also the last month of the year, so if we look at the cumulative column of the whole year, it is not difficult to find that in the full rise of 2021, some people seem to be left behind.
First of all, from the perspective of a single month in December, the year-on-year decline of many automobile companies has expanded compared with November, especially the shares of SAIC Motor Group and Dongfeng Group, which ranked in the top two, and the year-on-year decline has almost doubled compared with November.
In addition, the few position changes mentioned above, Great Wall Motors and Geely Automobile in the final sprint month, from a year-on-year decline to an increase, and finally the former in a single month with an advantage of less than 10,000 vehicles.
Another group of Tesla and Jianghuai Automobile in December single-month fight is Tesla and Jianghuai Automobile, in fact, Jianghuai Automobile's sales performance in December is not bad, 14.73% year-on-year growth rate is not as good as Tesla and BYD, but the increase can also rank third among the top ten automobile companies.
However, due to Tesla's "opening and hanging" in the last month of the year, the year-on-year growth rate was suddenly as high as 197.63%, and finally surpassed Jianghuai Automobile with an advantage of nearly 30,000 vehicles, and the gap between it and BYD also narrowed to about 29,000 vehicles.
2 Some people are left behind in the rankings throughout the year
Compared with the single-month performance, the annual sales ranking has changed dramatically.
First of all, as mentioned above, the overall performance of China's auto market in 2021 is good, which is also reflected in the annual sales performance of various auto companies. Compared with the double-digit decline in 2020, the 19 major automobile companies registered in the 2021 automotive K-line statistics have the largest decline of only 3.25%, showing very obvious signs of recovery.
Among them, Changan Automobile, which was pressed on the ground by GAC Group for a whole quarter, achieved a reversal in annual sales, although GAC Group also achieved a stop loss in 2021, but in the last few months of the year, Changan Automobile's annual cumulative sales have been higher than THAT OFC Group, and finally surpassed it with a level of 156,000 vehicles, successfully replacing GAC Group in the annual TOP 3.
In addition, although great wall motors surpassed Geely automobile in December, and its annual growth rate also reached 15.24%, much higher than Geely Automobile's 1%, but the annual cumulative performance has always been 48,000 units gap, and finally Geely Automobile with the same advantage to the end, The "five crowns" of Chinese brand passenger cars are well deserved.
Not only lost to Tesla in a single month, in the annual sales ranking, Jianghuai Automobile was also strongly surpassed by Chery Automobile and BYD. In fact, compared with 2020, Jianghuai Automobile's sales growth rate in 2021 has doubled, but the problem is that Chery and BYD, which followed closely behind, reached twice and nearly five times the level of JAC in 2021, respectively, and it is not surprising that the positions are swapped.
Tesla, which achieved the second year of domestic production, although it encountered a lot of quality public opinion crisis in 2021, but in the end it still achieved a high growth rate of nearly 250%, surpassing the well-off shares that could only rub Huawei's heat, replacing the latter among the top ten in the overall list.
Since Tesla is mentioned, it is just focused on the sales performance of the new power camp. In 2021, Weilai and Ideal Automobile both fell by one place, and Xiaopeng Automobile became the largest dark horse, not only surpassing the first two with sales of 98,000 vehicles, but also its annual growth rate was as high as 360%, leading the overall list.
The growth rate is also more than 300% of Nezha Automobile and Zero Run, such a high growth rate also promotes their rankings, in the new field of influence to overshadow Weima Automobile, in the overall list even surpassed Haima Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley.
In fact, the growth momentum of Haima Automobile in 2021 is not weak, but the performance of 2020 is too bad, and with the expiration of the foundry contract with Xiaopeng, the future development trend is not optimistic. Although Beiqi Blue Valley ended the decline in sales in this year, but similar to Haima Automobile, the concept of the concept that was once rubbed was greatly reduced, and it could not come up with explosive products, and finally they could only watch being surpassed by the new forces that appeared new and ranked at the bottom.
The worry is that if this trend continues, Haima Motors and Beiqi Blue Valley may run the risk of falling behind.
3 Whose hand will die in the "bet" of the association 2021, 2022?
At the beginning of 2022, looking at the national passenger car market analysis report released by the Association of Passenger Vehicles in January 2021, it will be surprising to find that for 2021, which is full of variables, it was "predicted" from multiple dimensions as early as a year ago.
In the report released by the Association at that time, the following basic predictions were made for 2021: the sales of new energy vehicles gradually returned to the normal rhythm, the highlights of independent brand new energy technology were widely displayed, the annual sales growth rate showed an overall trend of high and low, and the shortage of chips will gradually ease.
(Picture from the National Passenger Car Market Analysis Report of the Association of Passenger Vehicles)
In fact, from a more macro perspective, as the opening year of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" strategic plan, even in the face of multiple resistances such as chip shortages, rising prices of upstream materials, and the epidemic, the rapid recovery of the new energy vehicle market and the new achievements of independent brands in new energy technology are more like the inevitable development of China's automotive industry.
Considering the full release of the vitality of the domestic auto market in the third quarter of 2020, it is also reasonable that the year-on-year growth rate in the second half of 2021 will slow down in many months. But there is still some controversy in the industry about when the chip shortage situation will improve.
However, the most gratifying thing is that in this chip shortage crisis that has swept many industries around the world, Chinese auto brands have not only reflected better supply chain stability compared with joint venture brands with the implementation of the "six stability" work and "six guarantees" tasks, but also achieved export counterattack. This also finally allowed independent brands to reach the highest market share in history mentioned at the beginning, drawing a good end to the Chinese auto market in 2021.
2022 is not only the last year of financial subsidies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, but also the first year after the full liberalization of the share ratio of China's automobile market, the deepening of market competition, and the policy to promote the last train effect superimposed on each other, and then considering the new energy vehicles or will be affected by the upstream supply chain caused by the price increase tide and many other factors, the Chinese car market in 2022 is destined to show too many worthy of attention in a continuously good environment.
Can Changan Automobile, which has been soaring all the way, further surpass Dongfeng Group's shares? Can Geely Automobile achieve the "six consecutive championships" of Chinese brand passenger cars? Chery and BYD who will take the lead in entering the million-dollar mark? Which traditional car companies will the new forces counterattack? Can the pair of "difficult brothers" between Haima Automobile and Beiqi Blue Valley get rid of the crisis of falling behind?
In 2022, look at many car companies and drive the Central Plains, who kills the deer.