Author | Jia Weizhong (Text/Watchmaking)
Source | Car selection network
——Analysis of the 2021 car market economy index
In recent years, the market share of Chinese brand cars has hovered around 20%, and it will exceed 30% in 2021. There are two major reasons behind it: one is that the upgrading of low-end consumption has promoted the outbreak of A00-class electric vehicles, and the other is the global "core shortage", and Chinese cars have responded quickly to seize the mid-end market.
However, in 2022, the chip shortage problem will ease, foreign brand cars will pick up, and domestic cars can still maintain their hard-won market share?
Cars perform best
In 2021, sedans not only ended a three-year downward trend, but also became the best performing segment in the passenger car market.
According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, the cumulative sales of cars in 2021 exceeded 10 million units, an increase of 7.8% year-on-year, and the total volume and growth rate both surpassed SUVs and MPVs.
From the perspective of consumption, the car market last year was characterized by the growth of consumption capacity and the decline in consumption level. Statistical analysis from Beijing Regular Zee Cheng shows that the market size of the car in 2021 reached 1,775.1 billion yuan, an increase of 5.47% year-on-year; the regular car market size index (cumulative) was 1015.7 points, up 52.6 points from 2020, indicating that the consumption capacity rose. In 2021, the average market sales price of cars was 178,000 yuan, down 0.3 million yuan from 2020; the regular car price index (cumulative) was 116.9 points, down 2.5 points from 2020, indicating a decline in consumption levels.
The reason for the divergence of car consumption capacity and consumption level is that there is an imbalance in the consumption structure, which is manifested in the strong demand for high-end cars above 220,000 yuan, low-end cars below 100,000 yuan, and the growth of mid-range cars of 110,000-210,000 yuan.
Statistics show that in 2021, high-end and low-end cars sold 2.878 million and 2.617 million units, respectively, an increase of 10.5% and 19.0% year-on-year, respectively; mid-range cars sold a total of 4.504 million units, an increase of only 0.7% year-on-year.
From the perspective of product structure, last year's sales and share of A-class cars both declined, and B-class cars doubled. According to statistics, in 2021, the cumulative sales of A-class cars were 5.336 million units, an increase of -4.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales of B-class cars were 2.409 million units, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year. The share of A-class cars fell sharply by 7.0 percentage points year-on-year, and the share of B-class cars increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year.
Overall, last year's mid-range car growth stagnated, and A-class home car sales fell year-on-year, mainly due to the lack of supply due to the global shortage of chips.
Chinese brands create good results
Years ago, the price of foreign brand cars fell, forcing Chinese brands to turn to the SUV market. Since then, the local car market share has always been suppressed at the 20% line. However, last year, the share of Chinese brand cars exceeded 30%, the highest level in the past five years.
Overall, the "lack of core" plagues the global automotive industry, the procurement process of some joint venture car companies is slow, and Chinese brands respond quickly to seize the German and Japanese car markets. Statistics show that in 2021, the cumulative sales of Chinese brand cars were 3.249 million units, an increase of 67.2% year-on-year, and the market share reached 32.5%, and the share soared by 11.6 percentage points year-on-year. In the same period, German and Japanese sedan sales were 2.624 million units and 2.556 million units, respectively, an increase of -14.4% and -5.2% year-on-year, and the share fell by 6.8 and 3.5 percentage points, respectively.
From the perspective of market segmentation, the share of local cars has risen sharply, and the A00-class car has contributed the most. According to statistics, in 2021, the A00 class car sold a total of 935,000 units, up 199.3% year-on-year. Last year, A00-class sedan sales accounted for 9.3% of the total number of cars, and its market share increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year.
It is worth noting that due to the impact of the epidemic, motorcycles have grown strongly, and there is still room for A00-class vehicles to rise in the future. According to the data of the Association of Automobile Associations, motorcycle sales will exceed 10 million in 2021, up 22% year-on-year, and this part of the consumers will upgrade their cars in the future, which is expected to drive further growth in low-end car sales.
Can the 30% share be held?
Although the A00-class car is an important force supporting the growth of Chinese brand cars, and there is still room for growth, it is still unknown whether the local car share can stand at 30% this year.
From the perspective of price range, under the background of chip shortage last year, the main area of Chinese brand car rapid attack and foreign brand failure is the mid-range car market of 110,000-210,000 yuan.
Statistics show that in 2021, the cumulative sales of local mid-range cars were 1.211 million units, up 90.6% year-on-year, and the market share increased by 5.3 percentage points year-on-year to 12.1%. At the same time, the share of German and Japanese mid-range cars fell by a total of 7.2 percentage points.
In recent years, the quality improvement of local cars represented by FAW Hongqi H5 and Geely Xingrui has led to a certain increase in the market share of Chinese brand mid-range cars. However, the share of local mid-range cars in 2018-2020 has not exceeded 7%, and the share of local mid-range cars has doubled in 2021, which is related to the fact that some joint ventures will give priority to limited chips to ensure SUV products, resulting in insufficient supply of cars.
Looking back at the overall performance of passenger cars last year, cars are second to none in the three market segments, but the growth of mid-range cars has stagnated, and the sales of A-class family cars have decreased year-on-year, indicating that in the case of insufficient supply of mid-range cars of foreign brands, some consumers have the mentality of holding coins to be purchased. At the end of last year, experts from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the China Automobile Dealers Association believed that "the dilemma of chip shortage in 2022 is expected to ease in the second half of the year." "Therefore, the problem of the supply of some foreign brand hot cars will also be alleviated, and the volume of foreign brand mid-range cars will regain part of the lost market."
At the same time, with the increase in the supply of mid-range cars in the market, under the new downward pressure on the economy, the income of mid-range consumer groups is expected to decline, and they will be more picky when buying cars and are more inclined to choose foreign brand cars. Combining the above two factors, there is a risk of decline in the market share of local mid-range cars this year.
Overall, under the upgrading trend of low-end consumer groups, the sustained growth of A00-class vehicles this year is a high-probability event. But can the market share of local mid-range cars grow last year be solidified? No conclusive conclusions can be made at this time. Therefore, whether local cars can maintain 30% of the market share this year remains to be further observed.
(Image source: Internet)