The scale of the new energy vehicle industry is already large enough that it can no longer afford large-scale waste. Putting aside the gains and losses of any single enterprise, from the perspective of the whole industry and even the whole society, standardization is no longer optional, but imperative
Wen | Yin Road
At the beginning of 2022, the Ningde era (300750. SZ) released two blockbuster news in the capital market and the new energy vehicle market. On January 17, it was announced that the 45 billion yuan fixed increase has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, pending the approval of the CSRC, and the funds raised are mainly used to build four manufacturing bases and research and development investment. On January 18, an online press conference was held to announce its entry into the power exchange business, and at the same time, it released the sub-brand "EVOGO" of the power exchange business.
The fixed increase of 45 billion yuan is a continuation of the 58.2 billion yuan fixed increase announced in August 2021, after the inquiry of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, it was adjusted to 45 billion yuan in November, and the fixed increase is basically over, and cataline times will have more abundant funds to accelerate the progress of production capacity landing and technology research and development. The main competitor of catheter era, LG Chem, is about to carry out an IPO of more than 10 billion US dollars, although CATL has strong cash reserves and good cash flow, but in order to cope with the strong challenges of opponents, the more capital reserves, the better.
Compared with the fixed increase, the Ningde era's entry into the power replacement business is somewhat reasonable and unexpected. Logically, the Ningde era has been laying out the power exchange business for some time, whether it is Weilai's battery asset management company Weineng Battery, or The main company of BAIC's power exchange business, Blue Valley Wisdom, the list of investors has Ningde Era.
The unexpected thing is that the starting point of the Ningde era to enter the power exchange is so high and the intensity is so great. Previously, the industry believed that the Ningde era would do battery asset management and was unlikely to directly participate in the power exchange business. However, at the press conference on January 18, in 10 minutes, a series of new services such as battery replacement, power station replacement form, power station layout, and the first power replacement model were released in one go.
"Chocolate" for electricity block Ningde era courtesy of the picture
Among these businesses, the most notable is a basic technology - the "chocolate" power exchange block. This technology not only solves the standardization problems that are crucial to the power exchange business, but may even affect the standard-setting process of the entire power battery industry.
The "Chocolate" switcher is a standard specification of the power exchange unit, the single power exchange block is 26.5KWh, using a wireless battery management system module, and only the high voltage positive and negative interfaces are required to connect with the vehicle. Any model can install a "chocolate" battery changer as long as the battery compartment is designed according to the specifications and interface specifications of the "chocolate" exchange block, and the number of power exchange blocks can be freely adjusted according to the needs. In addition to the current popular large-power and customized technical route, the "chocolate" power exchange block design of standardized power-adding free combination has opened up new possibilities for the industry.
In 2021, many battery companies and even car companies are accelerating the construction of battery production capacity, but customization is a major constraint on expansion. In the process of battery expansion, battery companies insist on not seeing orders and not expanding production, and car companies insist on not proving the delivery capacity and not signing orders. Although in the current supply and demand situation, battery companies grasp the initiative, but the supply and demand sides are opposed, which is not conducive to the development of the entire industry.
In this context, standardized, generalized battery products have increasingly become the needs of the entire industry. In the past, it was to talk about power exchange before talking about standardized batteries, but now it is not so much that the power exchange business needs a higher level of standardization, but rather that the demand for standardization in the battery industry is imminent.
Technical advantages of standardized batteries
The lack of key standards has always been an important reason for restricting the development of the power exchange business, and this time Ningde's "chocolate" power exchange block has taken a big step forward in this regard. "If Weilai and Aodong are the 1.0 era of power exchange standards, then Ningde's 'chocolate' has undoubtedly entered the 2.0 era." A practitioner in the power exchange industry commented so.
Weilai's power exchange, the battery specifications are fixed, and the model design must make corresponding compromises, such as the inability to design small and medium-sized compact models, which is also a major obstacle for Weilai to enter the economic model market. Although the use of flexible fixtures and other technologies to achieve the need for a variety of models to share a replacement power station, the battery between each model is still not universal, and although the batteries of different models stand together, they still need to be managed in separate warehouses.
In order to carry out the power exchange business, CATL set up a wholly-owned subsidiary Times Electric Service, according to the company's general manager Chen Weifeng, the "chocolate" power exchange block is the core of the CATL era power exchange program, this technology first solves the needs of "one electricity and many vehicles". From compact cars to medium and large cars, SUVs, MPVs, the same power exchange block can be used, according to the user's application scenario, one for urban commuting, two for intercity transportation, and three for long-distance travel. In addition to achieving easy power exchange, it also avoids additional losses caused by excessive battery weight, further optimizing energy efficiency.
In terms of versatility, according to the data given by CATL, the replacement block can be adapted to the models developed by 80% of the pure electric platforms that have been listed in the world and will be listed in the next 3 years. One electric vehicle solves the most critical problem of the power exchange business - the versatility brought by standardization is not only a prerequisite for power exchange, but also has a significant impact on other players in the new energy vehicle industry.
A number of electric vehicles show the Ningde era courtesy of the picture
The model of one vehicle and one electricity and customized development has been criticized both upstream and downstream. Especially after the tightening of battery supply in 2021, both supply and demand sides are rethinking this highly customized battery pack product.
After the Ningde era power exchange conference, car engineers also said that this standardized battery pack is worth trying. An engineer at SAIC Volkswagen said: "Some key technical details are not yet clear, but this way of breaking it down is really worth knowing." Previously, Volkswagen's large module battery was very similar to this, except that Volkswagen did not change the power. Another engineer from a large state-owned car company emphasized the benefits of standardization on the supply chain, "If multiple models of a brand use standardized batteries, at least they can freely adjust the battery pack configuration for sales, and even remove the batteries on the unsalable models to give priority to the best-selling models, which is a good thing for supply chain management." ”
There are also some automakers who are worried about standardized battery packs, such as whether vehicle design will be constrained by technical standards for battery packs. In the power exchange mode, how to ensure the anti-interference ability of the wireless battery management system? The installation of different numbers of power exchange blocks, the difference in vehicle weight is hundreds or even hundreds of kilograms, how to overcome the problem of vehicle adjustment?
Some of these concerns need to wait for the CATL era to disclose more technical details, and some are excessive concerns, such as whether the standard battery pack will restrict the freedom of vehicle design.
Compared with today's fully customized battery packs, standardized battery packs do impose certain restrictions on vehicle design. After all, in the past, automakers designed vehicles first, and then customized battery packs according to vehicle needs. If a standardized battery pack is used, it is necessary to match the requirements of the supplier in terms of size specifications, interfaces, and communication protocols.
But custom and standardized batteries are not either-or. The future new energy vehicle market will be divided into three segments: tool cars based on commuting, toy cars based on personality pursuit, and luxury cars with luxury attributes. The mainstream tool car emphasizes versatility and economy. Toy cars and luxury goods emphasize performance and personalization. Standardized battery packs are a good match for tool cars, and customized batteries are still a must for toys and luxury models. This is like remote control toys with high-performance custom batteries, there are also with A/5 batteries, but I have never heard that A/5 batteries will limit the design innovation of toys.
The commercial value of standardized batteries
In addition to the technical advantages of standardized batteries, the greater attraction comes from their commercial value.
The easiest thing to think of is economies of scale. The power battery business is characterized by heavy assets and large scale, and one of the important reasons for the rise of the Ningde era is the scale advantage, and the standardized battery pack will further strengthen this scale advantage.
Secondly, standardization is the premise of battery assetization. All companies that do battery business have a battery asset management part in the business model. But before the standardization of batteries, battery assets had almost no liquidity, just book assets. After standardization, the battery can circulate between different subjects, and the battery has become a real asset. For example, car companies transfer battery packs to each other, and there is no way to talk about it without standardization.
It is also the most important point that only standardization can achieve sharing, can we truly improve the efficiency of the use of battery resources, so that the battery resources of consumers, vehicle manufacturers, and battery factories can really operate efficiently, and let all parties get tangible benefits in the improvement of efficiency. Consumers don't have to pay high outright fees for batteries. OEMs can be bolder in ordering standard battery packs without worrying about model matching, and can realize battery assets even in the worst cases. Battery factories can further increase the scale of production and rely on scale effects to further reduce costs to hedge the pressure on rising raw material prices.
In addition to the commercial value of the above three points, there are still two medium- and long-term benefits in standardized battery packs.
Standardized battery packs can reduce the difficulty of developing new models and shorten the development cycle. Battery pack is the key component of the vehicle, if the third party can complete the standardized development, it will greatly facilitate cross-border enterprises entering the new energy vehicle industry. In the past six months, the skateboard chassis has attracted so much attention from the industry precisely because its modular chassis design allows new entrants to enter the new energy vehicle track faster and better. Standardized battery packs with power exchange functions also have great appeal to new entrants.
Of course, for mature OEMs, it is more reassuring to have the development of key components in their own hands.
In addition, in the middle and late stages of battery life, standardized battery packs can lay a good foundation for battery cascade utilization and material recovery. In this regard, the wireless battery management system used on the "chocolate" power exchanger block will play an active role. The detection of the battery no longer requires the opening of the battery compartment connection, and detailed parameters such as the health of the battery can be understood through the wireless connection. The detection is difficult, and the detection is expensive, which is a major obstacle affecting the utilization of the power battery ladder. In the material recovery link, the volume of the replacement block is small, the specifications are unified, for material recovery, whether it is sorting, demolition, crushing, the technical difficulty will be reduced accordingly, and it is even possible to achieve full automation of the recycling process.
Standardized battery packs are also valuable in support of new battery technologies. Take solid-state batteries, for example. In the early application stage of solid-state batteries in the future, because of its high cost, there will be basically no market competitiveness, especially if it is made into a large-volume customized battery pack, it can only be used for luxury models. With standardized battery packs, it is possible to put a small amount first. Due to the uniform specification standards, switching new battery technology is easily controllable in cost. In this way, the price of consumers' early experience will not be very high, and it will play a positive role in the rapid development and popularization of new technologies.
Standardization is not something that every business can do. The reason why the Cataline era has produced the idea of standardized battery packs is rooted in its market position and the development stage of the new energy vehicle industry.
In 2021, CATL has occupied more than 50% of the market share in China's power battery market, and in terms of global power battery installed capacity, CATL era has a share of more than 30%, almost the sum of the second place LG and the third place Panasonic. In any industry, dominant companies have the idea of setting standards. Although this is driven by the interests of industry leaders, it is also objectively conducive to the development of the entire industry.
In fact, to accelerate the development of the new energy vehicle industry, it is urgent to establish key standards as soon as possible. New energy vehicles have entered an explosive period, and if there is no key standard for efficient management of key resources, the waste generated in the process of rapid development will be very amazing. Different from the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, the scale of products at that time was not large, and the breakthrough of one or two key technologies and the success of one or two star products were enough to cover the waste caused by all failed technical routes.
The power exchange and standardized battery solution proposed by the Catalonia era is not the only standard choice, and the practice of various industries at home and abroad shows that the standard is optimized and established in the competition. Regardless of which criterion wins in the end, all parties should reach a basic consensus - the scale of the new energy vehicle industry is already large enough to no longer withstand large-scale waste. Putting aside the gains and losses of any single enterprise, from the perspective of the whole industry and even the whole society, standardization is no longer optional, but imperative.